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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla was denied right to Teslaquila trademark because of this

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With all love and respect to my Serbian friends, but Sljivovic is pretty vile...
 
Zach is an amazing CFO. I think that a large part of TSLA's current stock price can be attributed to Tesla's new IR stance and the fancy new earnings reports.

TSLA has gone from $200 to $1,600 since:
  • Tesla started to disclose less public information
  • Under promise and over delivering became the norm
  • The earnings letter revamp in Q3'19
  • Zach has started to provide better information around naysayer talking points like the AR.
Of course Tesla has also delivered strong results over the same time period, but I think the effect of the way in which these results have been communicated to investors should not be underestimated.
Also I like how unflappable he is on the earnings call.

Analyst:
I have one question and a follow up. Is it true that your mother was a hamster and as a follow up did your father indeed smell of elderberries?

Zach:
Well to answer the first part of the question there could be some hamsterish elements to my parentage but I don't see it as a major factor in the mission - maybe 100bps - 200bps impact, and as for the second part of the question we have mentioned that we are on a bit of a personal hygiene journey and I expect the paternal scentage to improve over time - perhaps by up to an order of magnitude.


You can't flapp the Zach.
 
Our good buddy Cramer:

Cramer’s lightning round: ‘You should stay away’ from Nikola

Nikola Corporation: “Supply overwhelmed demand, which is not a good sign. Most of the good stocks are like Tesla where demand is overwhelming supply. I think that you should stay away. There is much better places for you to put your money.”
If supply is 0 does that mean demand is negative?
 
I heard "high capacity passenger vehicle" -- presumably van or bus.

Highly doubt there's gonna be a bus. Goes against his tweet, and it just doesn't make sense to make a vehicle that big if we're indeed close to full autonomy.

More likely it'll be something that can be used in the TBC's loop/hyperloop, or perhaps a van type of vehicle that is mostly focused on cargo, but could also transport passengers.

I just have a hard time thinking of use cases for large high capacity passenger vehicles in the autonomous future outside the loop/hyperloop. Can anyone else think of how they could be useful?
 
Do you have the exact quote? I don’t recall the 1% figure, but may have misheard.

In the end its a chicken and egg situation, the higher the volume of cars, the better the economies of scale and the more margin can be achieved, but if you use that margin to lower prices and increase volume, you can generate even larger economies of scale and even higher margins. It’s basically what Amazon did - at any point you can choose to slow down and take the profits from massive margins (Amazon started to do that in the last few years), but the incentive is to keep going for scale and increasing your potential future margins. At any point they could stop the growth and reap massive reward.

The alternative to the Amazon route is the Apple one, where you maintain your high margins and profits but the growth is managed over a longer period (eg slower). In my opinion Tesla share price is currently valued for the Amazon high growth model, so it is probably the best route to take.
That did sound a little difficult to follow - As the analyst pointed out, there appears to be conflicting goals of highest margins and also accelerating affordability. Manufacturing cost improvements can help with both, but by definition you cant have the highest margins in the industry and be making the vehicles as affordable as they could possibly be. I might have to listen to that question again.
 
I just have a hard time thinking of use cases for large high capacity passenger vehicles in the autonomous future outside the loop/hyperloop. Can anyone else think of how they could be useful?

I think they are making 1-3 dozen person vehicle for Boring Co projects in Las Vegas plus any other cities they get a contract with. There was talk of a boring tunnel from a central bus/train station to Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.

The Chicago project from O'Hare to downtown appears dead.
 
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I thought it was significant that he discussed LiFeSO4 battery chemistry in a thoughtful manner. A hint about a battery day topic perhaps.

Then he discussed range. 300 miles is in his thinking as an adequate range for vehicles. It could be interesting to see how this plays out. He specifically mentioned evolving designs for the Y being built in Germany and he was vague about the battery source.

He remains concerned about price being a barrier to EV adoption so he would appear to be trying to drive toward a product feature set that mitigates the price barrier with a new value proposition. This could be important for investors.

It was a great call for substance suggesting increasing breadth and opportunity to the business.
 
That did sound a little difficult to follow - As the analyst pointed out, there appears to be conflicting goals of highest margins and also accelerating affordability. Manufacturing cost improvements can help with both, but by definition you cant have the highest margins in the industry and be making the vehicles as affordable as they could possibly be. I might have to listen to that question again.

The confusion between what Elon and Zach said is likely simply because of the terms. Zach talks about margin which Tesla will achieve very high with a lot of untouched levers still to pull from and Elon talks about using the generated profits to lower prices making vehicles more affordable and with that gaining market share and scale.You lower margin by doing that but create still good profits.

I would be very disappointed if Tesla would have decided to take the profits and move into an Apple-like style which does not make any sense as the competition is weak and the consumer waits for affordable BEVs. The market is empty and just waits for Tesla to push out new products.

The Amazon model to invest in the future and take profits later is the right one without any doubt.

The task is now to build as many GF as possible in a short time and push the long list of not launched products out.
 
That did sound a little difficult to follow - As the analyst pointed out, there appears to be conflicting goals of highest margins and also accelerating affordability. Manufacturing cost improvements can help with both, but by definition you cant have the highest margins in the industry and be making the vehicles as affordable as they could possibly be. I might have to listen to that question again.

I assumed that it means they will cut prices as long as they remain profitable... so the targets in order of priority are:-

1. Some profits...
2. Prices low enough to encourage more demand...
3. Good margins..highest gross margins in the industry?

They can only sell each car once, so they want lower prices to the point where every car produced sells, then lower prices again and keep increasing production.

I think the difference is if they are talking highest gross margins, not net margins... gross margins are good ... a lot of expenses need to be deducted to get a bottom line profit number...

As they produce more cars fixed costs are spread over more unit volume, that provides the ability to reduce prices. (and that probably does lower gross margins if they don't make other savings)

For 3/Y where the same car is eventually produced in 3-4 factories, a lot of jobs only need to be done once then copied...
 
Zach:

Regulatory credit revenue increased sequentially to $428 million. While difficult to forecast precisely, our best estimate of 2020 credit revenue is roughly double that of 2019. Services and other margin improved yet again, marking the fifth sequential quarter of improvement.

2019 was:
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216+111+134+133 = 594

Estimated for 2020 double that, so 1188m. Tracks roughly well with 350m$ pr quarter from FCA.