Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Funny how one can get such conflicting views of Tesla.

Read this thread and it is euphoria, swop to the Model Y thread and there are people posting that Tesla make rubbish cars full of defects not worthy of a modern car.

JD Power posting Tesla near the bottom for delivery defects followed by information that is is the most appealing car out there according to owners.

How gullible do you want to be? Jimi Hendrix has an applicable quote:

"As you well know, you just can't believe everything you see and hear, can you?”

Jimi was not well educated but he was incredibly smart and wise for his age.

That said, early production of all Tesla Models has more tolerance variation than the industry standard. It's a fit and finish concern, not a reliability or "suitability for intended purpose" issue. The underlying vehicle is considerably higher quality than the industry standard, where it really matters, and the fit and finish improves as they get the production line tuned more finely.

 

[BornToFly]

I believe that the SP action the next couple weeks will be indicative of how many funds that benchmark the S&P500 have been front-running the S&P inclusion. If the SP doesn't rise much, we will know that the rise to 1600 was already fueled by these funds.

 

[kanweg]

A question about the credit pools.

So let's say Fiat bought the rights to what turns out to be only say 60% of the credits Tesla earns. Maybe Tesla produces more cars than expected. Maybe Fiat only needed parts of what Tesla had anyway. Seems unlikely their need and Teslas availability would line up perfectly. So what happens to the remaining credits. Do they have no value?. Can Tesla sell those remaining credits on some open market? Seems a bit harsh if those are just worthless.

I guess what I'm asking is it possible Tesla will have another billion or two worth of usable credits at the end of 2021?

afaik know, for Europe companies can shack up with only one other company at a time. They may change the cooperation the next round, but not during the term and polyamory is forbidden.

 

[BornToFly]

I believe that the SP action the next couple weeks will be indicative of how many funds that benchmark the S&P500 have been front-running the S&P inclusion. If the SP doesn't rise much, we will know that the rise to 1600 was already fueled by these funds.

I should add that my gut feeling is that some may have been hedging a little bit, but they have more buying to do, along with the index funds once the announcement is made. Fingers crossed for 3000/share in the next few months.

 

[StealthP3D]

If I had to guess they switched to another company afterwards.

You do not really expect them to be able to add anything of substance to what Chamath said?

No, obviously whatever CNBC said would not be substantive to the business but I can glean a lot about where the stock price is likely to go by how the mainstream media treats the subject matter. I already understand the subject matter, I need to know how it's being portrayed. That can tell you a lot.

I have been trying to explain how the share price is not tied to the business but rather to the perception of the business.

 

[elasalle]

I believe that the SP action the next couple weeks will be indicative of how many funds that benchmark the S&P500 have been front-running the S&P inclusion. If the SP doesn't rise much, we will know that the rise to 1600 was already fueled by these funds.

If MM can pin Max Pain, many things are possible.
I think a slow and steady rise (kinda controlled) is in the works ....
big dips/ gains on macros or Tesla related news.

 

[BornToFly]

Any previous quarter, I could see short sellers waiting until after earning and ATH to start shorting, but who wants to short before S&P 500 inclusion?

 

[EVMeister]

And the floodgates open...

 

[Todd Burch]

Expect a strong MMD as the MMs try to set a narrative.

Then watch them get urinated upon by the broader market.

 

[StealthP3D]

Any previous quarter, I could see short sellers waiting until after earning and ATH to start shorting, but who wants to short before S&P 500 inclusion?

Are you questioning the ability of TSLA short-sellers to do incredibly stupid things?

 

[UkNorthampton]

I’ve come to the conclusion that the Tesla-FCA deal is completely opaque. There is no logical reason that credits should have been higher in Q2 than in Q1. FCA sales were abysmal so the emission penalties should have been relatively less.

Similar to your thinking, it seems that the annual credits are agreed to a priori and Tesla can allocate them to whatever quarter they want, making quarterly estimates rather futile.

When are the credits due? Could it be that (some) Q1 FCA liabilities are due in Q2 and so FCA buy credits for Q1's vehicle sales in Q2 to offset their Q2 payments?

eg
Q1 FCA sell A stinking fossil LICE cars incurring $B liabilities
Q1 Tesla sell C cars and create $D in credits
Q2 FCA buy E credits for $F
Q2 EU or whoever get paid $B-$F for A-E cars (more complex really)
Q2 Tesla banks $F = $400+ million and still has $D-$F left to trade

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I've seen some links to the video. Here are a few excerpts:

Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya told CNBC on Thursday that Tesla's growth is no longer about its electric cars, but its renewable energy components. That could make Elon Musk's company worth trillions, he added.

"It is the leading hedge when it comes to electrification and decarbonization. This is no longer about cars, that's the first wave of growth. I think people are pricing in the evisceration of traditional autos and an enormous shift to [electric vehicles], of which Tesla will get the disproportionate share," Palihapitiya said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "This is worth trillions of dollars."

"What Tesla is going to do with their battery packs and software will all of a sudden allow each of us to be in the energy business, as well," Palihapitiya said.

"Again, people will get angry, they will not understand, they will try to push back, and they will be wrong. And what's going to happen is this stock is now going to represent the totality around decarbonization and sustainability, so it was really great to own this thing around cars for the first few years, I get it. But now I underwrite this stock as a push toward decarbonization, towards unregulated energy, and towards the ability for all of us to become our little micro utilities."

Palihapitiya: Tesla's push toward renewable energy could make it worth trillions — CNBC

I wonder if it should be "edge" and not "hedge" in the second paragraph above

 

[Krugerrand]

The only thing even remotely controversial Elon said on the call is that some in AI are dumber than they think they are. So overall a successful call. Anyone think the investor relations director should jump in a second earlier when Elon pauses with his thoughts on some of the answers?

Sometimes the truth hurts. And no.

 

[StealthP3D]

He seems to be talking about us. Retail investors as part of the revolution.

It was mostly a thinly disguised dig at how mainstream financial institutions use their position and influence to spread TSLA FUD and mislead while the smarter individual investors see right through the BS. In other words, "As you well know, you just can't believe everything you see and hear, can you?”

 

[Krugerrand]

I love Chalmath and SEC Clayton can go suck an egg.

One giving retail investors the credit they are due, the other passively aggressively telling us we’re idiots and analysts and institutions know better.

 

[ZachF]

Any idea when the other automakers post results? it's going to be interesting to compare....

 

[elasalle]

There is chatter about a secondary to go along with S&P 500 inclusion.
This could be one reason for a slower SP increase.
Short term options will be vulnerable to this, so watch out.

I am seeing some of my sold Aug CC's losing 30% + value today ..

 

[ZachF]

I love Chalmath and SEC Clayton can go suck an egg.

One giving retail investors the credit they are due, the other passively aggressively telling us we’re idiots and analysts and institutions know better.

SEC is like the 1920s police force on the take from the mob.

 

[Opus BC fan]

This price action is so cute.
I think I will continue to hold all my shares and enjoy the show.

 

[JusRelax]

There is chatter about a secondary to go along with S&P 500 inclusion.
This could be one reason for a slower SP increase.
Short term options will be vulnerable to this, so watch out.

I am seeing some of my sold Aug CC's losing 30% + value today ..

IV currently is falling off a cliff, down from 104.5 at end of day yesterday to 88.1 as of 15 minutes ago:

EDIT: Two minutes later and it's down to 86.0