Are people putting money on this race?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
This is the ~$5Bn question of the moment! It could be that Elon got the correct time and place but is confused on which parallel universe....
This is our weakest point as a community. luvb2b and ReflexFunds make great models once the production numbers come out. However, we are clueless on:
- Guessing / consensus reaching on production figures during the quarter plus agreement on other major modelling inputs
- Producing a basic model earlier in the quarter to estimate ER
Norway also just tied Nov 17 as the top non-quarter-ending month ever. One more to take the crown.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So, I had this nice chat with a prior member of the "Electrification Strategy Group" of a German premium carmaker.
Can't get into any specifics for obvious reasons, with the exception of three meta-remarks:
In short, mildly bullish news
- Remember when media reported on Germans getting nervous after M3 teardown? According to my source, those reports didn't paint an accurate picture of what really happened: People had very public shouting matches, some where fired on the spot and they made huge yet overhasty adaptations to their EV strategy like, within days.
- He quit his job shortly after, in Q1 2018, and consequently rolled all of his shares from his former employer into Tesla ones(!!!) Furthermore, he confirmed that they wouldn't be able to catch up with Tesla for at least two car-generations (8-12y). "No matter from what angle you look at this debacle, they're pretty much ****ed. All of them [German car makers]. VW is so much up its own ass, they haven't even realized they're in big, big trouble."
- Don't believe a single word of their EV strategy PR: They simply couldn't see a profitable path to pull off their original plan – going completely electric by 2025 – so they pivoted. Hard.
Amazing info!
I'm wondering about this:
"Don't believe a single word of their EV strategy PR: They simply couldn't see a profitable path to pull off their original plan – going completely electric by 2025 – so they pivoted. Hard."
Since their EV strategy is still .. murky even today, what did they pivot to? Going completely electric much later than 2025 in a "delay and pray" move, hoping to cash in quarterly bonuses as long as possible while peak ICE profitability still lasts?
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
How much cheaper is the SR model 3 ?
The LEMUR Midrange with PUP is now 42.9 K. The SR with PUP will probably be 40K.
Only 2.9 K difference and that gets you 28 more miles per charge.
Id like a MR without PUP at 37.9 K
Later today I think we will see the SR with PUP.
The LEMUR Midrange with PUP is now 42.9 K. The SR with PUP will probably be 40K.
Only 2.9 K difference and that gets you 28 more miles per charge.
Id like a MR without PUP at 37.9 K
Later today I think we will see the SR with PUP.
YauKwan
Member
Im putting my bet down. There news of a porsche ev that was able to charge on a Tesla dedicated charging station. Elon is going to announce ev charging collaboration efforts with other EVs gaining ability to charge on Tesla stations with a royalty to Tesla for charging.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I'm thinking Elon is stressing out right now trying to think of something worthy of all this speculation.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
I don't believe the news today will be market moving given the timing.
While true it's after the market is closed, it still within the after market hours. Thin tape movement would be too drastic, in either direction, if it were market moving news, IMHO.
While true it's after the market is closed, it still within the after market hours. Thin tape movement would be too drastic, in either direction, if it were market moving news, IMHO.
I'd love to be explained by the mods on why deleted my response while good ol' @wipster can continue troll others
(being on the wrong side of the debate, but that's irrelevant now).
Ironically, non-market moving news could be market-moving (downward) if the SP action since yesterday is based on bullish speculation. But maybe the action is based on bond repayment. Impossible to know; things are too conflated.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I have now created a folder named 'T35K'.
Anybody speak L337?
Anybody speak L337?
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Antares Nebula
Active Member
This SA author is pretty even handed and has written prior bullish articles on Tesla:
Tesla: SEC Latest Action Unfounded, Short Squeeze Possible - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla: SEC Latest Action Unfounded, Short Squeeze Possible - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
This reminds me . . .
When I spoke to a BMW employee last year, I was told that their EV strategy was basically, by 2025, BMWs cars will be available with gas ICE, diesel ICE, or EV modes--take your pick--all from the same assembly line. That the company was intent on continuing the ICE lines and viewed EV as just a drivetrain option. He then added that he was glad he was retiring in two months (as in, wouldn't be around to witness the ensuing bloodbath).
The layers of dirty air that must have cycled through the Ohio River Valley and Shenandoah and/or maybe Piedmont Valleys of Virginia (If I have my air pollution flows right) are very noticeable to skydivers, especially when repeatedly jumping from slow climbing old Cessnas. I swear I could smell the difference falling through the layers, especially in the 1980's when wood stoves were an order of magnitude more popular. Here's hoping the layers go away, and future generations won't bear the burden of lead and mercury - addled brains and bodies. And I grew up right on a busy truck route during the heyday of leaded gasoline and oil-smoke-spewing autos.Just look at pictures of LA, Salt Lake City, Denver, etc if the wind hasn't blown for a few days.... Or modern-day Beijing.
I look forward to fossil fuels being thrown into the dustbin of history.
anthonyj
Stonks
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, it's nuts: premium ICE carmakers have high value engine factories and supply chains on their balance sheets that must not be written off like Jaguar wrote off ~40% of their book recently:
Tata Motors writes off $3.9 billion due to Jaguar problems in China
"MUMBAI, India - Carmaker Tata Motors on Thursday reported the largest quarterly loss ever in India, when it posted a net loss of 270 billion rupees ($3.8billion)."
"The quarter to 31 December 2018 was impacted by a write-down of 277 billion rupees ($3.9 billion) by subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc."
"MUMBAI, India - Carmaker Tata Motors on Thursday reported the largest quarterly loss ever in India, when it posted a net loss of 270 billion rupees ($3.8billion)."
"The quarter to 31 December 2018 was impacted by a write-down of 277 billion rupees ($3.9 billion) by subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc."
Collapsing ICE demand, especially for high value engines, will be catastrophic to their bottom line, I believe.
Butterflies with popping the question to Mackenzie Bezos.
If there's something bigger than a Tesla Semi towing a Tesla Truck, towing a Model Y, that is towing a 35K Model 3 - this would certainly be it.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Radpioneer
Looking for my next car...... my first EV....
I am going to share my guess now....It is not wishful thinking or hope...nor do I see any TUSK related connection...so might be wrong.
But I thought of this yesterday but held out till today to post. I did add the china funding part after someone ^ listed it today
First announcement will be "paid off the bonds" " still expecting cash flow positive going forward"
Second announcement could be about "China funding secured"
And the third announcement "one more thing" delivery date for limited # of Standard Range M3 to employees with leasing options, and announcement for leasing and SRM3 for every one else in NA on such and such date"
But I thought of this yesterday but held out till today to post. I did add the china funding part after someone ^ listed it today
First announcement will be "paid off the bonds" " still expecting cash flow positive going forward"
Second announcement could be about "China funding secured"
And the third announcement "one more thing" delivery date for limited # of Standard Range M3 to employees with leasing options, and announcement for leasing and SRM3 for every one else in NA on such and such date"
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