Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

OK, thoughts...

The Chevrolet Bolt is going to be CRUSHED. Will be interesting to see how Chevy reacts.

I am glad they moved Drive-On-Autopilot to the FSD package. I like the TACC+Autosteer for $3,000.

Surprised to see SIX different trims for Model 3. Obviously they don't mind the complexity that brings.

325 miles of range on Long Range Model 3... that's now only 10 miles lower than the Model S. There just has to be an update coming...

162mph top speed on Model 3Perf? (Cue a fresh new set of Youtube Quarter-Mile and drag-race videos...) That's the highest top speed for any Tesla ever, and the first Tesla faster than the "gentleman's agreement" top speed of 155mph that has been common on many luxury cars.

However a lot of luxury sedans add top-end speed when you buy the most-polluting versions: e.g. 200mph for CTS-V or 189mph for BMW M5 Competition. So I guess the Model 3 Perf is the first to break that mould, since it generates the same amount of pollution as the base model

So... for S+X there just has to be an update coming. Perhaps during the Supercharger V3 reveal... since charging times will be highlighted.

 

[KarenRei]

Fixed (need to be more careful with image copying)

 

[Fact Checking]

Who thinks the 10% op.ex up for the year guidance is still in place? I'm guessing today's plan was developed after that call.

Much of opex is SG&A, a big chunk of that is Tesla Store related overhead. That will be significantly decreased and resources moved over into Service Centers (and I really hope the Tesla Store employees too).

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Price in China also down

43,3000 - 40,7000
49,9000 - 45,5000
56,0000 - 51,6000

Can't wait for Gigafactory Shanghai to pump out even cheaper Model 3s!!

 

[DFibRL8R]

OK, thoughts...

The Chevrolet Volt is going to be CRUSHED. Will be interesting to see how Chevy reacts.

I think Chevy recently stopped producing the Volt.

 

[MP3Mike]

The Chevrolet Volt is going to be CRUSHED

How so? Chevy already discontinued it.

 

[jhm]

The today news are much bigger than people are able to comprehend as of now.

It will take a couple of days and likely weeks for the market to realize as well. All of a sudden there is a huge amount of variants with different price points people can choose from. With that an exponential demand level is opened and that is almost unlimited as Elon said in the ER call. We are now in the +500k p.a. unit range and this just for the markets Tesla delivers to today. With other markets I see +800 in sight.

The demand question is over.

On top and from most overlooked but very important the cost reduction with closing stores and going online is quite significant.

But the really brillant move is indeed to make the 3 refundable within 7 days and 1k miles. Everybody driving it once will rather give his grandma back but not the 3. Its just that much joy you gonna miss and after a week most people emotionally won't be capable to return it even if they should.

Today is an important day for Tesla as a company as well as all us investors. That day will not be forgotten and its no overstatement to call it history in the endeavor to transform transportation to sustainability.

Tesla just moved from a premium and luxury manufacturer into a mass producer and mark my words Teslas EVs will get even lower in price from here.

When Tesla becomes demand constrained, they'll bring back the stores. Until then, they are signaling that they only have enough bandwidth to deliver cars to buyers who already know that they want one. If you're on the fence, Tesla is not going to do any hand holding.

 

[Pezpunk]

Also, does anyone else think its incongruent that the P3D now has the highest top speed of any Tesla? I mean, I agree they shouldnt limit the vehicle just for the sake of doing so. Also, I've never taken my MS over 125 (hypothetically), but still.

My bet is the Model S is getting a performance upgrade soon that will incidentally bump its top speed. (along with the X)

 

[Johnny Ma]

FYI. Ordered a SR model for myself. Took a long time for payment to go through (30+ minutes of trying, website seems to be getting a ton of traffic). Got AP and FSD - $8k in software. I'm certain they have comfortable profit margins on that sale...

 

[CaliBear1]

These moves tell me Tesla has widened and deepened the moat and fortified the castle walls with trebuchets filled with incendiary projectiles. Many legacy ICE companies are dead and just don't know it yet...like a bear that has taken a round to the head but keeps on charging.

While the stock is taking a hit at the moment due to WS's emphasis on quarterly results, this is all fantastic news.

I wonder if Elon is sandbagging when he says Tesla won't be profitable in 1Q19 and possibly in 2Q1. Larry Ellison whispering in his ear?

Stay strong Longs. You can treat yourself to a Roadster 2.0 in a couple of years if you stay the course!

 

[SO16]

Not available anymore. You want a test drive? Buy a car and then have 7 days to return it if you don’t like it.

Now that there are more people with Model 3’s, I think there will be plenty of other owners in Facebook groups, etc that could offer test drives. Perhaps people would do it for $10 a test drive. Good way to make some money. (Business opportunity.)

 

[EVNow]

Didn't expect such across the board price cuts. This is going to send competition, such as it is, into a complete tailspin.

We just need a fair federal tax credit structure now.

 

[sundaymorning]

Even if you assume the $35k 'base base' model, as I'll call it, is break-even or has slightly negative margins (I don't assume that, but for the sake of this thought experiment, let's do so), I don't think this is a problem. The way they've laid out the SR options is pretty smart, IMO. The SR+ is virtually a no-brainer--for $2k, you're getting 20 miles more range, better acceleration/top speed, power/heated front seats, better seat material, better speakers, fog lamps, and phone docks. I think a majority of SR buyers will opt for that. Let's say 50%. So now the SR ASP is $36k (50% $35k, 50% $37k).

But wait, that's assuming no one buys any other options, which is not going to be the case. Black is the only free color. The other four average $1875. I'll take Norway as a quick-and-dirty example since I have the stats in front of me--about 45% order black. Let's assume $1500 color cost for the others. This equates to +$675 ASP to all SR cars. Now we're at $36,675 overall for SRs.

Now let's consider wheels. It makes sense that average SR buyers will largely opt for Aeros, so let's go with 20% getting 19s. At $1500 for the option, that's +$300 to SR ASP. Now we're at $36,975. Same deal with the white interior, only I'm going to say 40% since I think a lot of people will not want straight black. That's +$400. Now we're at $37,375 overall SR ASP.

Troy has 62% of orders going with EAP, and 15% going FSD. Let's cut those in half for SR to be conservative. 30% EAP, 7% FSD. That's +$900 for EAP and +$350 for FSD.

This brings total SR ASP to about $38,625 using my guesstimates--quite a bit of margin room vs $35k. And of course they will continue selling a large percentage of MR/LR/P builds, as well. They'll accrue cost savings as the store footprint shrinks over time, as well.

All this to say that I don't really know what the SR profitability looks like at this point, but it doesn't scream PROBLEMATIC to me. And as a parting thought, recall that when the MR was announced in Oct, Musk did comment that they were eyeing Feb for being able to make the SR profitably. Hey, look--it's the last day of Feb.

I have a mid range model 3 on order without AP. I’m pretty happy with the price drop, and you’re right, the extra 2k giving you an additional 20 miles with better seats and power makes a lot of difference. With the price of AP also dropping to $3k I’m actually considering it now

AP is something I could live without, but since it potentially can save one’s life as well as reducing driving fatigue, I think I have to have it now that the price reduction has taken place.

I can’t imagine other car companies being able to pull this off, by the time their version of AP1 comes out Tesla’s AP3 will be less expensive than any competitor.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

FYI. Ordered a SR model for myself. Took a long time for payment to go through (30+ minutes of trying, website seems to be getting a ton of traffic). Got AP and FSD - $8k in software. I'm certain they have comfortable profit margins on that sale...

So you mean today you did this?

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 381646

Hmm, 420,000, you say?

(To head people off re: the lawyer's "correction": If his attorney told him he had to modify a social media post, and he hadn't, he'd have been by default in violation of his agreement. Credit the request for the correction to ignorance, to conflicting numbers, to updated numbers, to whatever you want... but if the attorney told Musk that he had to post a "correction", then he had to.)

It's a very bullish update for production, note the ranges:

• 70k-100k Model S-X
• 350-500k Model 3s means a 2019 average weekly production range is 6.7k-9.6k/week range.

Note that 500k is not the 2019 "exit rate" anymore:

We do know it from Carsonight that Tesla has already comfortably exceeded the lower range of 6k/week and is probably already at the 6.7k/week rate. That's already a guaranteed baseline of 350k/year. If the second Grohmann machine goes online now then this should further increase that rate.

If this materializes then the exit rate at the end of 2019 could be well over 10k Model 3's per week, if we add in the 3k/week the Shanghai Gigafactory wants to achieve...

Ambitious!

Wondering what @ReflexFunds thinks about this guidance.

 

[Johnny Ma]

So you mean today you did this?

Yes

 

[elasalle]

whats weird to me about the store closures is that they opened several in late 2018

EM was not focused yet of Service & Delivery. ...

 

[MartinAustin]

I think Chevy recently stopped producing the Volt.

How so? Chevy already discontinued it.

Oops Of course, I meant to say the BOLT. Nissan Leaf ain't looking so rosy either.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Yes

First congrats.

Second did you get the slightly bigger battery?

Third. I’m pissed at you because, we’ll, never mind.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Just received email confirming order. I checked credit card immediately after paying $2500 and it was pending as soon as the order went through, but email didn't come until just now. Took an hour or so. Very interested in seeing number of orders.