Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

Man I wish if we could stop talking when FSD happens and only talk about if the rate of progress on FSD is accelerating or stagnating. How on earth does somebody predict timeline for a technology like FSD is beyond me. Its like somebody constantly nagging SpaceX on when are they getting to Mars

well, I tried by talking about quantifiables, like chip development/production. Yes, those can/do vary, but it isn't as open ended as software projects which can range from "under time" to "gradually evaporate into nothing". Given the compute capacity of Dojo it seems very relevant, but obviously others disagree strenuously. So be it.

 

[ZsoZso]

Hmmm, after hitting a high of 1923 its going back down, is the SP shying away from entering the Great Depression era ?

 

[mongo]

It's more a matter of growing the training network as computer power becomes cheaper. FSD isn't the go/no-go situation it's often made out to be. Even after Tesla achieves what could be deemed to be FSD, they will still constantly improve it's safety and capabilities.

I don't think Tesla knows with any certainty at what point it will be sufficient for regulatory approval, simply that they will be constantly improving and refining it over the next 5 years so it makes sense to keep the training network state-of-the-art through the entire training process. It will always be a work in progress.

Plus, Dojo is not limited to FSD. Factory automation is also on the table. Along with (extra or intra)-planetary automated construction equipment.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can someone explain how naked short selling is profitable for MM? Seems like it's nothing but a dumpster fire strategy for them.

This article explains it well: https://www.thekomisarscoop.com/202...-street-threaten-u-s-companies-and-investors/

 

[dl003]

Can we have a minute of silence for all the people who asked "Is it too late to get in at $1000?"

Also, I'd much rather have people taking profit in an orderly manner than a cascade of stop losses being triggered.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hmmm, after hitting a high of 1923 its going back down, is the SP shying away from entering the Great Depression era ?

It's following the macro on steroids, with a little downward help, here and there, from you-know-who

 

[StealthP3D]

Ah, but that is their base case. Did I not reference their bull case? If so, my bad. Their base case is actually not that far from where were at.

You are wrong about that too. ARK's base case for 2024 is $7,000/share:

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Hmmm, after hitting a high of 1923 its going back down, is the SP shying away from entering the Great Depression era ?

Roaring 20s is fun, but I grew up in the 80s, where short shorts abounded, and OMD released “Tesla Girls”.

 

[Singuy]

Thinking about the timeline for Dojo has me wondering: how can Tesla be close to FSD when they are still years away from having their supercomputer? If they could really reach FSD by -- say -- end of 2021 then what would be the point of Dojo?

Then thinking about the scale of Dojo -- it will be a competitive supercomputer whether or not it ranks first -- if Tesla believes they need Dojo then what does that imply about pre-Dojo progress?

Which reinforces my FSD skepticism. ARK's high valuation of Tesla is predicated on true autonomy (robotaxi network) by 2024. No, I'm not losing any conviction (especially because I never had any to begin with when it comes to FSD) but if Dojo is currently at sim levels using FPGA what does that suggest about timeline before it can actually be made? And how long will it need to be operational before it can produce FSD? I realize the latter is an open ended question, but I would think someone familiar with chip design and production could hazard the former.

Don't get me wrong, I love my autopilot and am looking forward to (hopefully) having access to the rewrite this year or early next. But I just don't see how its plausible to have everything lined up and done by 2024 for a full self driving robotaxi network.

I define FSD as destination to destination without intervention. According to Elon, Tesla is not there yet. He said he can "almost" get from home to work without intervention. This has nothing to do with the March of 9s because by definition, having even 1 intervention after 99 successful attempts at getting to the destination without interventions still means there were 99 successful attempts. Current Tesla is at zero successful attempts and Elon is aiming for "above 0% chance of getting you from home to work. Dojo will not only need to train Teslas for 50 successful attempts, but 80, 99, then 999, then so on and so forth. Generalized fsd is hard. So depending on dojo ark invest may have an aggressive timeline.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Famous last words (from that article, uttered in 2013):

This source, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the task force and its work, said: “The fact that GM is studying Tesla should flatter Elon Musk, but it should also scare the *sugar* out of him. When you wake up the sleeping giant, look out.”
​

Mm-hmm. Elon really dodged a bullet there!

Some sleeping giants, when you wake them up, blink, snort, fart, turn over, pull up the covers and resume sleeping!

 

[ThisStockGood]

It's following the macro on steroids, with a little downward help, here and there, from you-know-who

And... we’re still up more than 3 percent since yesterday. No rush. Just a healthy steady climp

 

[SemiS3XYR]

$420, funding secured - hand slap
stock price is too high - nothing
FSD quantum leap - nothing

this is the new norm and depressing that to most nothing matters but money

 

[Mo City]

Man I wish if we could stop talking when FSD happens and only talk about if the rate of progress on FSD is accelerating or stagnating. How on earth does somebody predict timeline for a technology like FSD is beyond me. Its like somebody constantly nagging SpaceX on when are they getting to Mars

Elon's continual messaging that autonomy "is closer than you think" invites this. If he let the rate of progress do all the talking instead of raising (and disappointing) short-term expectations on a regular basis, it would be as you wish.

Can't wait for the quantum leap later this year.

 

[Tslynk67]

The split can't come soon enough. My mind keeps refusing to process the numbers I am seeing correctly. I keep processing the rises and falls as if the stock price was much lower. Fifty Dollars used to mean something.
This compounding crap is real.

I was just getting used to 1% being above $10, now we have to go back to single-digits again.

Not for long though

 

[HG Wells]

The calls ending on 8/21 seem to be dropping.

 

[Nocturnal]

Can we have a minute of silence for all the people who asked "Is it too late to get in at $1000?"

Also, I'd much rather have people taking profit in an orderly manner than a cascade of stop losses being triggered.

If I had a dollar for every dumbass who told me I was stupid because I didn't think selling at 1k and "waiting for it to go back to $300 to buy back in" was a good plan, I'd be able to buy 1/10th of a TSLA today.

 

[Mo City]

You are wrong about that too. ARK's base case for 2024 is $7,000/share:

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

If you actually look on that chart and see where $7,000 falls, it doesn't really represent a baseline forecast. Ark's belief is TSLA will fall either (1) $2,700 give or take, (2) $15,000+. The decisive factor is autonomy.

In other words, they don't really have a "middle ground" prediction for TSLA. One of their analysts admitted this in an interview.

IMO, their non-autonomy forecast is too low. Tesla will become a $1T company even without autonomy. I expect Ark's "Median Target" number to at least double from $2,700 when they revise this valuation chart from January (which is ancient history).

 

[ZsoZso]

We longs maybe giddy, but think about the shorts.
This crazy shorting opportunity must make them outright ecstatic!
Just think of all those dips that we routinely label "buying opportunities", these days the shorts have giant opportunities

 

[dl003]

In the spirit of the split, we might have to wait a while longer to enjoy this meme, unless AMZN also split, in which case it'd be less special

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 17 minutes ago: Here’s the Real Reason Tesla Stock Is Soaring

Excerpt:

...Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy wrote on Tuesday that Tesla's high stock price gives it a capital cost advantage over peers. It's an odd reason to be positive on a stock, but that was part of the Bank of America upgrade case as well. As the stock rises, it costs Tesla less in shares issued to build a new manufacturing plant.

Wall Street is supporting Tesla stock, even if the support is begrudging.

Another reason Tesla shares might be on the run is financial technology. That's Barron's new idea to help explain the " how high" portion of the Tesla stock run. Here's the thinking.

Wall Street innovates, but unlike technologies such as iPhones or 5G and, the innovations can cause volatility and unintended consequences.

For instance, the innovation of portfolio insurance helped catalyze Black Monday in 1987. The proliferation of credit default swaps helped create the financial crisis. Trading rules and automated traded were part of the story behind the flash crash of 2010.

It takes a while for traders and investors to adjust to new things.

Now, zero-commission trades and fractional share ownership on platforms such as Robinhood are new things. The precise impact is difficult to measures but it is part of the reason for volatility and wider-than-expected price swings in stocks these days -- including Tesla.

It might be a stretch, but academics will study free trading and write papers quantifying the effects later. And a new trading paradigm is as good a reason as any other.