Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

When I say money you don't have, I don't mean margins. I mean money you can't afford to lose. If you can't afford 100 shares, then don't mess with the stock. Paying a premium and adding extra risk due to the fact that there's a time decay just so you can have the possibility of gains of that 100 shares is going above your means.

The get rich quick part of options with insane risk is getting a lot of these young kids in trouble.

The options market is much more than just buying some gambling calls or taking big risks by selling uncovered calls or puts. There are people who buy options to protect their shares. There are others who sell options to pick up stocks with a discount. There are those who use it to get a regular income from premiums. If you use them in a smart way options can be very safe, if you use them in a dumb way they can be very dangerous. But the same goes for cars. Or lawnmowers.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Aug 14th - Closing SP $1650.71
Aug 21st - Closing SP $2049.98

SP Diff +$399.27 in one week...damn if feels good to be a $TSLA owner. Have a great weekend y'all!

 

[Favguy]

Because that is how petty the working world is. I started a new job about a year after I bought my model s. Within the first two weeks, the ceo pulled me aside and informed me that it wasn't wise to have a more expensive car than the ceo where I worked.

My response to that would have been "Maybe you need to get a better car then" But then I've always been a none conformist!

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Because that is how petty the working world is. I started a new job about a year after I bought my model s. Within the first two weeks, the ceo pulled me aside and informed me that it wasn't wise to have a more expensive car than the ceo where I worked.

You should have responded “better make me CEO then”

 

[jhm]

"Tesla Engineering Moves At The Speed Of Thought (w/Sandy Munro)" | Solving The Money Problem (10:49)

I like the sandbagging. But if the worry is that legacy OEMs would give up if they knew just how far behind they are, well, they should be giving up on ICE. They should come to terms quickly with the idea that ICE just cannot compete with Tesla. They should stop wasting R&D cash on ICE. Do this also mean they should give up on EV R&D investments too? Maybe, but before they can really make that determination, they need to focus their effort on the right things--they need to focus on what they can contribute to a growing EV supply chain.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You should have responded “better make me CEO then”

Or you could have went with ...."It isn't my fault you didn't buy $TSLA like i did"

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla looking to ramp up building Service centers in the Northeast

Jerome Guillen posted on LinkedIn

Heh.... a few weeks back I mentioned in this thread it was worth considering Tesla would be needing to make a significant investment in new service centers and I got bombed with dislikes and told I was a FUD short, even after quoting Elon saying the same thing I was and him also pointing out how vital having good service center coverage was to future sales.... now they're hiring for the exact thing I mentioned they'd be doing.... thanks for the link

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Why Tesla stock will rise for the 'next decade': Expert

View attachment 579115

Ross has always been a bull......but a very uninformed and quite honestly, bad financial bull.

Back at the 500-600 range in Jan, he was shouting to the heavens that Tesla was overvalued. He's said the same thing at 1,000 and now he's saying that he thinks the true value of Tesla is 1,000 instead of 2,000. He can't see farther than 1 or 2 quarters in front of him and makes key rookie and emotional trader mistakes by living in the past

An informed tesla bull would answer "Tesla is on the cusp of greatly expanding their production, revenue, and earnings and thus it's impossible to state the true value of the company until later this year. If they manage to hit 500k deliveries for 2020 it would mean a very large growth ramp in Q3 and Q4 and based on the metrics for other growth stocks, Tesla could be fairly or even undervalued right now. We'll know more after Q3 and Q4".

Keeping waiting for 1,000 Ross

He's the exact type of Amazon "Bull" that kept selling as Amazon kept going up......and always waiting for that big drop to buy at a "fair" value

 

[Off Shore]

I like the sandbagging. But if the worry is that legacy OEMs would give up if they knew just how far behind they are, well, they should be giving up on ICE. They should come to terms quickly with the idea that ICE just cannot compete with Tesla. They should stop wasting R&D cash on ICE. Do this also mean they should give up on EV R&D investments too? Maybe, but before they can really make that determination, they need to focus their effort on the right things--they need to focus on what they can contribute to a growing EV supply chain.

More and more it seems like ICEmakers are swimming in armor carrying anvils. Their only expertise is ICE, transmissions and supply chain management, and none of their supply chain has what they need. And dealers...

 

[MP3Mike]

Heh.... a few weeks back I mentioned in this thread it was worth considering Tesla would be needing to make a significant investment in new service centers and I got bombed with dislikes and told I was a FUD short, even after quoting Elon saying the same thing I was and him also pointing out how vital having good service center coverage was to future sales.... now they're hiring for the exact thing I mentioned they'd be doing.... thanks for the link

No, you were getting disagrees because you said that the build out of additional service centers and Superchargers needed to match the growth of sales. And that link doesn't say that at all.

 

[smorgasbord]

The options market is much more than just buying some gambling calls or taking big risks by selling uncovered calls or puts. There are people who buy options to protect their shares. There are others who sell options to pick up stocks with a discount. There are those who use it to get a regular income from premiums. If you use them in a smart way options can be very safe, if you use them in a dumb way they can be very dangerous. But the same goes for cars. Or lawnmowers.

Exactly.

I'll just add that there are different levels of options trading and reputable brokerages won't give the higher levels (using margin) to newbies.

For instance, selling a Covered Call is a very safe option play. You can't sell them unless you own the underlying shares and there is no bad outcome possible (you either keep the option premium or you sell the shares and keep the option premium). This is such a safe thing that many 401k accounts can have this level of options trading.

 

[mickle]

Because that is how petty the working world is. I started a new job about a year after I bought my model s. Within the first two weeks, the ceo pulled me aside and informed me that it wasn't wise to have a more expensive car than the ceo where I worked.

So I've got a slightly similar story... Seven years ago, I designed an art installation for a building at Google. It hung from the lobby ceiling and it was also Larry Page's building. At the unveiling, I got to meet Larry and talk with him for about 2 minutes. He looked at the piece and whispered to me "you should make a bigger one". I was a little upset hearing this, as I had designed it to fit the proportions of the lobby without being too overwhelming. I replied to him, "Well, you need a bigger lobby".

(side note: he always whispers, and tells everyone to make things bigger)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ross has always been a bull......but a very uninformed and quite honestly, bad financial bull.

Back at the 500-600 range in Jan, he was shouting to the heavens that Tesla was overvalued. He's said the same thing at 1,000 and now he's saying that he thinks the true value of Tesla is 1,000 instead of 2,000. He can't see farther than 1 or 2 quarters in front of him and makes key rookie and emotional trader mistakes by living in the past

An informed tesla bull would answer "Tesla is on the cusp of greatly expanding their production, revenue, and earnings and thus it's impossible to state the true value of the company until later this year. If they manage to hit 500k deliveries for 2020 it would mean a very large growth ramp in Q3 and Q4 and based on the metrics for other growth stocks, Tesla could be fairly or even undervalued right now. We'll know more after Q3 and Q4".

Keeping waiting for 1,000 Ross

He's the exact type of Amazon "Bull" that kept selling as Amazon kept going up......and always waiting for that big drop to buy at a "fair" value

Yes..He is no Ron Barron or Cathie Wood. We all know its undervalued based on future potential and everything in the pipeline.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Because that is how petty the working world is. I started a new job about a year after I bought my model s. Within the first two weeks, the ceo pulled me aside and informed me that it wasn't wise to have a more expensive car than the ceo where I worked.

Easily solved. Tell him you'll be the CEO & he can work for you.

 

[pz1975]

OT

Since it's the weekend now, I wanted to share my findings from an analysis I did in the wayback machine. We all remember our old bear friend John Peterson, who has written more than 50 anti-Tesla articles on Seeking Alpha since 2010. Not surprisingly, he has been pretty quiet on that front in the last year. His last article relating to Tesla was in August 2019.

For those that remember (and those that do not), back between 2009-13 he was pumping a battery manufacturing company called Axion Power, which he stated in one of his articles that "I'm a former Axion director, the stock is my biggest holding and I follow the company like a hawk..." Part of his anti-Tesla stance was likely due to the competition he felt Tesla was presenting to Axion.

Let's have some fun and do some math comparing Axion vs. Tesla stock price since his first Tesla-related article was published in June 2010. It was poignantly named "Why Tesla is Unlikely to Succeed" and was written just before its IPO. Here it is for posterity: https://seekingalpha.com/article/210951-why-tesla-is-unlikely-to-succeed

Sadly for poor John, Axion Power did not fare quite as well as Tesla over the years. Axion has gone through countless reverse stock-splits over the years to try and keep its share price at all relevant and so I have no idea what its actual true share price was back in June 2010. However, its stock chart from today shows that back-calculating the share price through all the reverse stock splits gives us an adjusted share price of $518,000 in June 2010. Axion's share price today is $0.0015 (yes, less than 1 cent). We all know Tesla's IPO share price was $17 at IPO in June 2010 and it is now at $2,050.

Now is the fun part. If you had invested $1,000 in Tesla in June 2010 (which wise old John was arguing strongly against), it would be worth $121,000 today. Invest $1,000,000 then, you'd have $121 million today. 121 bagger!

On the other hand, if you (or John) had invested $1,000 in Axion Power in June 2010, it would be worth $0.0000029 today. What the hell is that you ask? It is about 3 10,000ths of a cent. Sorry, I still can't imagine that. Instead let's say you invested $1,000,000 in Axion Power - that would be worth $0.0029, or 3/10ths of a cent. If you had invested $3 million, you'd have enough now for a 1 cent gummy bear! What level of bagger is that you ask? Well, it's a negative 345,333,333 bagger. Pretty impressive, John.

So comparing investing in Tesla vs. investing in Axion Power (as John argued against over and over back in the day), was comparably a 41,724,137,931 bagger. So in essence, investing in Tesla earned you a 41.7 TRILLION TIMES better return than investing in Axion. Wow.

Thanks for the memories John Peterson, you will forever be remembered as the ultimate contrarian indicator.

 

[Zaxxon]

Aug 14th - Closing SP $1650.71
Aug 21st - Closing SP $2049.98

SP Diff +$399.27 in one week...damn if feels good to be a $TSLA owner. Have a great weekend y'all!

I spent 6+ years in this stock waiting for its price to hit $399. Now that's a pretty solid week.

 

[jhm]

Heh.... a few weeks back I mentioned in this thread it was worth considering Tesla would be needing to make a significant investment in new service centers and I got bombed with dislikes and told I was a FUD short, even after quoting Elon saying the same thing I was and him also pointing out how vital having good service center coverage was to future sales.... now they're hiring for the exact thing I mentioned they'd be doing.... thanks for the link

Yep, when you voice ways Tesla can grow ahead of Musk saying so, you run that risk. I'll never forget just how angered TMCers were with me years before the Model 3 when I expressed how I thought Tesla needed to work on making cars more affordable. Only the Model S was in production at the time, and I think a lot of Model S owners were threatened by the idea that a lower cost Tesla could come along and undermine the value of Model S. I was definitely the bad guy for pressing everyone's emotional buttons. But alas, Tesla did go on to improve the affordability of its vehicles just as I had suggested.

Yes, there are many ways for Tesla to grow, many growth edges and growing pains. Just because someone points out where Tesla can grow does not mean any ill will toward Tesla. In deed those of us who most firmly believe in Tesla want to see it grow on all fronts as quickly as possible. Of course, Tesla must expand its service network; its a simple consequence of selling more vehicles. Of course, Tesla must improve the customer experience in the service centers; this is how you delight customers and preserve lifelong loyalty. Of course, Tesla will lower prices on existing models and bring out new, more affordable models. Of course, Tesla will get into subscription and pay-as-you-go pricing. Of course, Tesla will do a major re-design on the Model S or replace it with something better. All of these suggestions have hot buttons on this thread. But of course, Tesla will keep growing on all fronts, whether we are emotionally prepared to accept certain changes or not.

 

[Unpilot]

Because that is how petty the working world is. I started a new job about a year after I bought my model s. Within the first two weeks, the ceo pulled me aside and informed me that it wasn't wise to have a more expensive car than the ceo where I worked.

Was said ceo wearing elevator shoes and a really long tie?

 

[traxila]

OT

Since it's the weekend now, I wanted to share my findings from an analysis I did in the wayback machine. We all remember our old bear friend John Peterson, who has written more than 50 anti-Tesla articles on Seeking Alpha since 2010. Not surprisingly, he has been pretty quiet on that front in the last year. His last article relating to Tesla was in August 2019.

For those that remember (and those that do not), back between 2009-13 he was pumping a battery manufacturing company called Axion Power, which he stated in one of his articles that "I'm a former Axion director, the stock is my biggest holding and I follow the company like a hawk..." Part of his anti-Tesla stance was likely due to the competition he felt Tesla was presenting to Axion.

Let's have some fun and do some math comparing Axion vs. Tesla stock price since his first Tesla-related article was published in June 2010. It was poignantly named "Why Tesla is Unlikely to Succeed" and was written just before its IPO. Here it is for posterity: https://seekingalpha.com/article/210951-why-tesla-is-unlikely-to-succeed

Sadly for poor John, Axion Power did not fare quite as well as Tesla over the years. Axion has gone through countless reverse stock-splits over the years to try and keep its share price at all relevant and so I have no idea what its actual true share price was back in June 2010. However, its stock chart from today shows that back-calculating the share price through all the reverse stock splits gives us an adjusted share price of $518,000 in June 2010. Axion's share price today is $0.0015 (yes, less than 1 cent). We all know Tesla's IPO share price was $17 at IPO in June 2010 and it is now at $2,050.

Now is the fun part. If you had invested $1,000 in Tesla in June 2010 (which wise old John was arguing strongly against), it would be worth $121,000 today. Invest $1,000,000 then, you'd have $121 million today. 121 bagger!

On the other hand, if you (or John) had invested $1,000 in Axion Power in June 2010, it would be worth $0.0000029 today. What the hell is that you ask? It is about 3 10,000ths of a cent. Sorry, I still can't imagine that. Instead let's say you invested $1,000,000 in Axion Power - that would be worth $0.0029, or 3/10ths of a cent. If you had invested $3 million, you'd have enough now for a 1 cent gummy bear! What level of bagger is that you ask? Well, it's a negative 345,333,333 bagger. Pretty impressive, John.

So comparing investing in Tesla vs. investing in Axion Power (as John argued against over and over back in the day), was comparably a 41,724,137,931 bagger. So in essence, investing in Tesla earned you a 41.7 TRILLION TIMES better return than investing in Axion. Wow.

Thanks for the memories John Peterson, you will forever be remembered as the ultimate contrarian indicator.

Brilliant. Thank you!

Hope he was evicted from his Swiss Castle.

 

[traxila]

Ok, just for fun, if FSD is suddenly a reality for any company, what is it worth?

500 Billion?

A trillion?

Obviously a difficult calculation, but easy to say that Tesla would be tremendously undervalued if this were suddenly a thing.

I am going to go with a trillion to start.

Opinions?