Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I don't think anybody owning Tesla stock expects Tesla batteries to get to one million miles in range (on a single charge) ever. From 500 miles to one million miles would be a 2.000x increase. Nobody (invested) is that optimistic.

Cramer thought that until Rob corrected him, and he is more savvy than the average investor.

Rob explained it at least twice, it's like saying "do 1000 miles with a gallon of fuel"...
But Cramer knows nothing about physics. I suspect he's not the only one.

I’ve had otherwise smart people I know make this mistake after hearing “million mile battery”.

 

[S3XY]

Pushing it up a bit more, but not too up at once?

It's what I like about ARK predicting a $10K range all along (assuming FSD). Many thought Kathy Wood was crazy. I'm mean, who would invest with such unrealistic targets? Not so unrealistic now. Better listen up folks.

Post split that's a $2K target. Doesn't sound so absurd any more, does it.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Imagine if Elon unveiled a VTOL design on Battery day, with a launch date that was 3-4 years away. It would be inline with his tweet about VTOL enabling battery capacity.

Tesla's Elon Musk says that batteries enabling electric aircraft are coming in '3 to 4 years' - Electrek

He is very good at turning tech advances into visuals. He’s done it with Semi, Roadster, and Model 3 to name a few - with delivery dates that are years out.

This was also his original plan with a Mars mission to send a plant to capture a picture of a green plant on a red background to inspire a resurgence around space travel / exploration and rekindling NASA & government budgets around Space efforts.

 

[Zaxxon]

Cramer thought that until Rob corrected him, and he is more savvy than the average investor.



I’ve had otherwise smart people I know make this mistake after hearing “million mile battery”.

I've seen that, too. But, like, how dumb do you have to be to think that? Or rather, how little thought must you have put into the concept? 1M miles at crazy-good efficiency, let's say 200 Wh/mi. That's a 200 MWh battery. We're currently putting 75 kWh - 100 kWh batteries into vehicles. So these people are (not thinking at all, or ) thinking that Tesla is sitting on a 2000x energy density breakthrough at somewhere approximating the same cost. And that if Tesla has this energy breakthrough, it would make financial and product design sense for Tesla to simply put 2000x the energy capacity into the vehicle rather than, say, 10x the capacity and a bunch of cost savings or some such.

 

[vikings123]

I am more convinced for long term holders S & P inclusion will not matter. Most of the analysis points to it being a one time event. They will likely wait a quarter or 2 when the profitability is even more clear. At the same time, the longer they wait the harder this becomes and I don't see them leaving TSLA out forever as it likely will be one of the top 3-4 largest market cap stocks.

Good news is there will not be any announcement if they delay. So the traders that are trying to front run this will have to just hold on or some will slowly take the gains from the split announcement.

I like how the potential S&P announcement was keeping the shorts on their toes. I would love for them to relax and dig a hole again. Nobody really knows how the S&P committee works so I guess we can speculate all we want. I think Exxon's exit from Dow is a sign of things to come.

Talking about battery day I also worry that people like Cramer or his followers will not truly understand what these advances in technology really mean. I have full trust in Tesla to make this a really exciting day where following the event even the most casual of investors can start articulating the competitive advantage for Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think the sentiment was set yesterday and this is just momentum across the market as travel stocks recover. I think things will continue to be trash until Thursday. Hoping this post doesn't age well.

Nah, this isn't change of "sentiment", this is shorting, and I suspect a coordinated attack yesterday - highest %age since beginning of July:

Edit - looks like they're at it again. More short term pain for long term gain, for us, that is!

 

[lafrisbee]

Ah, poetry.

This appearance of the Moon is unusual but not rare. I've noticed it several times before. The most recent I recall was due to wildfires on the West Coast three years ago. The jet stream carries the smoke here. The 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption kept the Moon quite reddish here for many nights.

back from when I taught such things to children..the red in the air is caused by any particulate screening out certain spectrums of the light reflected from the Moon. And is why the "Harvest Moon," a bright white strong light which aided Farmers in harvesting their crops back before electricity, was such eulogized in folklore and Mythology. And during the harvest time it was Dry, and the field work created a large increase in Dust. Which in turn filtered out the reflected light from the Moon during the next full Moon. Which is the Hunter's Moon... a "blood" Moon foreboding a successful hunt, or the death of the animals. And that my friends is the 8th grade tidbit given during my lesson on the Moon.
So many of the other "moons" throughout the year have bullshit names which have no relevance and only garner a name based on the artificial calendar man creates.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Nah, this isn't change of "sentiment", this is shorting, and I suspect a coordinated attack yesterday - highest %age since beginning of July:

View attachment 580489

If we see a repeat of yesterday’s 10% MM dip, it will be a nice buying opportunity for me.

$1970 current premarket...

not advice.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

There is no news so... I think todays dip will be another good swing trade opportunity. I did 2 trades yesterday and made some nice pocket money, planning on doing the same today. My new rule of thumb is buy under $2000 and sell over $2010. seems to be easy money right now

Still holding a big pile of long-term shares I wouldn't even *think* about selling before

• Battery Day
• Q3 financials
• S&P inclusion.

I was a bit concerned about the fires recently, and frantically checking maps. I know that might seem paranoid, but seeing 'wildfires' and 'freemont' together in the news is not good for my heart rate. I was surprised there wasn't a dedicated thread for it here tbh. Am I just totally clueless about the distance?

 

[mikevbf]

Post split that's a $2K target. Doesn't sound so absurd any more, does it.

The next chapter: Energy!

 

[Boomer19]

came across IB bulletin
some options exchanges have made AAPL and TSLA options non-tradable
(i assume it means immediately)

mistaken/misinterpreted bulletin?
or the games begin?

CBOE left in play, but ISE is pretty big, no? (as far as volume)

 

[RobStark]

I was a bit concerned about the fires recently, and frantically checking maps. I know that might seem paranoid, but seeing 'wildfires' and 'freemont' together in the news is not good for my heart rate. I was surprised there wasn't a dedicated thread for it here tbh. Am I just totally clueless about the distance?

Wildfires don't get that far into the city across concrete jungle of the suburbs. And cross major highways.

Homes and buildings destroyed are people that chose to live "in the country" "in the mountains" "in the hills."

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I’m starting to suspect that inclusion won’t happen. The easy path for the committee is to decide that adding Tesla will cause turmoil (especially with our macro)and the regulatory credits are a convenient justification. I also find it hard to believe the various passive fund managers are not pressuring them to leave Tesla out as that makes their own jobs easier.

between this is and unreasonably high and tin foil hat theories about battery day I’m suspecting a sell the news event. Battery day will be amazing news for the company, but being able to make a lot of batteries in house with a 20% increase in density is boring. People don’t understand how close batteries are to parity with ICE or that battery production is the limiting factor for EVs globally. Many seem to expect some magic solid state battery etc and I bet we aren’t getting that.


And he is still talking about the million mile battery in terms of a “battery that can last for a long time without a charge”. I’m so confused that people think a million mile battery means a million in range. Common misconception it seems. I hope this doesn’t cause disappointment.

I’m still looking for S&P inclusion to be announced, with Monday as my target date. The regulatory credit angle is a TSLAQ talking point, not anything real. And even without profitability they should be considered. I believe the committee would avoid doing it during the stock split because it could make fund managers’ lives and backoffice work more difficult. It’s better for them to avoid other catalysts so the rebalancing isn’t skewed by an inconsistent SP (good luck with that). There’s no schedule, so it’s not like they’re “late”.

If they fail to announce for some reason, I can console myself with the fact that they’ll just have to do it after Q3, which is going to be a blowout.

I also think battery day will outline profound manufacturing scalability and cost improvements that will go over most people’s heads and will end up being a “sell the news” event, short of showing a flying car. But we’ll look back on this period as the real pivot point away from ICE, where the technology, manufacturing capability, cost, and ownership experience are so superior that the auto industry has its “iPhone moment”, and we usher in the age of the Electronic Car.

 

[wtlloyd]

Ouch! just did an involuntary head snap at the SP jump from 1965 to 2013!

 

[GOVA]

The M2 Will be smaller. What is shown here is almost a model Y.

It looks similar to the Model Y, but nobody knows the dimensions as there is really no reference point of any sort. This render could represent anything size-wise like M2.

 

[KMCC]

"Johnson has an $87 price target on the stock by the end of next year. (You read that correctly.) "


Gordon Johnson has a new interview out on Yahoo finance with a price target of $87 by the end of next year. I think he is so stupid that he doesn't realize the stock has split and he needs to divide $87 by 5 For a price of $17.40.

He doesn't seem to be aware of the stock split And the need to divide his price target estimate by 5.

 

[vikings123]

Ouch! just did an involuntary head snap at the SP jump from 1965 to 2013!

Yep all that premarket effort from shorties just went to waste in 5 minutes of regular hours trading. They will continue to dig a hole for themselves and for that reason we will continue to see the volatility.

And we are green!

 

[Nocturnal]

I've seen that, too. But, like, how dumb do you have to be to think that? Or rather, how little thought must you have put into the concept? 1M miles at crazy-good efficiency, let's say 200 Wh/mi. That's a 200 MWh battery. We're currently putting 75 kWh - 100 kWh batteries into vehicles. So these people are (not thinking at all, or ) thinking that Tesla is sitting on a 2000x energy density breakthrough at somewhere approximating the same cost. And that if Tesla has this energy breakthrough, it would make financial and product design sense for Tesla to simply put 2000x the energy capacity into the vehicle rather than, say, 10x the capacity and a bunch of cost savings or some such.

Not to mention, that would means instead of charging for 30 mins, it would require charging for like 3.5 years on a super charger to fill up the battery. Lol

 

[JBRR]

came across IB bulletin
some options exchanges have made AAPL and TSLA options non-tradable
(i assume it means immediately)

mistaken/misinterpreted bulletin?
or the games begin?

CBOE left in play, but ISE is pretty big, no? (as far as volume)

View attachment 580491

Called IB to inquire about this.

It's only for today and it's supposedly almost all options volume that's non trade-able today.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

"Johnson has an $87 price target on the stock by the end of next year. (You read that correctly.) "


Gordon Johnson has a new interview out on Yahoo finance with a price target of $87 by the end of next year. I think he is so stupid that he doesn't realize the stock has split and he needs to divide $87 by 5 For a price of $17.40.

He doesn't seem to be aware of the stock split And the need to divide his price target estimate by 5.

we could hit his target if there’s a 10:1 split announced right after the current 5:1 completes

I betcha he’d say “I told ya so”. And I’d be ok with it at that point.