Sorry my formatting was confusing. I purchased calls and puts. If I close those positions out it'll be for $209k-$178k=$31k profit so far
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sorry my formatting was confusing. I purchased calls and puts. If I close those positions out it'll be for $209k-$178k=$31k profit so far
smorgasbord
Active Member
I'm actively shopping for solar plus battery (Tesla offering is not space efficient enough for my roof size to energy use ratio in Seattle), and Generac products are competitive. More flexibility than Tesla, plus DC coupling, which can be a big efficiency improvement in some scenarios, and I was quoted 11k for 17.1kWh, which is pretty close to Tesla.
Futures are up.
Can’t say I’m not nervous about tmrw.
I’m not a huge investor. I gave the stock every dollar I had 5 yrs ago but I wasn’t in the best shape financially then. So I’m basically able to afford a Tesla with the money in the investment.....I have no garage though so that’s out the window. I don’t have enough money to buy a home, might build one if stars align. But right now it looks as if I’ll be holding for a while. Which is smart, but still not looking forward to a consolidation or drop after all the Hubabaloo (sp?)
good luck tmrw everyone, c ya in the morning
Thx admins for all that you do.
-BT
Can’t say I’m not nervous about tmrw.
I’m not a huge investor. I gave the stock every dollar I had 5 yrs ago but I wasn’t in the best shape financially then. So I’m basically able to afford a Tesla with the money in the investment.....I have no garage though so that’s out the window. I don’t have enough money to buy a home, might build one if stars align. But right now it looks as if I’ll be holding for a while. Which is smart, but still not looking forward to a consolidation or drop after all the Hubabaloo (sp?)
good luck tmrw everyone, c ya in the morning
Thx admins for all that you do.
-BT
Mo City
Active Member
You just beat me to it.
U.S. futures are VERY strong at the moment. Unusually strong. This means TSLA will probably open and close in the red tomorrow.
I see what you’re doing....channeling your inner GJ so $TSLA rips tomorrowYou just beat me to it.
U.S. futures are VERY strong at the moment. Unusually strong. This means TSLA will probably open and close in the red tomorrow.
Very reactionary. Itchy fingers. Build up your own TSLA convictions and not let others dictate your moves so easily. Easy come, easy go maybe?
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Terafactory Austin progress
Sadly they have been told by security to desist their filming. This is probably not Elon's wish, he is known to check on videos from other sites to check on progress. So if you have any way of contacting Elon, are one of the people he follows on twitter for example, then please ask for these flights to continue.
Edit: it seems that Elon is OK with the drone usage
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1299203602662137862
Sadly they have been told by security to desist their filming. This is probably not Elon's wish, he is known to check on videos from other sites to check on progress. So if you have any way of contacting Elon, are one of the people he follows on twitter for example, then please ask for these flights to continue.
Edit: it seems that Elon is OK with the drone usage
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1299203602662137862
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Sorry I should have been more specific because you're the 2nd person to point that out. I was specifically talking about the first person killed by an autonomous Tesla. As with all things Tesla, they get put in the spotlight regardless of the circumstances and I expect no shortage of FUD when this event happens.
I said I think we'd likely see a 30% drop because at the point that Tesla is running autonomy, the share price will be 4-5X what today's share price, meaning a lot of the value of the stock at that point will be FSD potential. So an unfortunate incident I think will result in a drop in the share price. I think it would just be a short term thing though.
A 30% drop is a LOT. Especially in a couple of years post-S&P inclusion when TSLA should be somewhat more stable, it's not going to drop 30% from just some traders and panicky uninformed longs selling the stock. That'd require BIG investors selling.
And I don't believe that the big boys would be so poorly informed about FSD at that point (or even today) that they're under the illusion that a self-driving car will never be in an accident. It's just about being in accidents less often than human driven cars, and I don't think the big investors are stupid enough to not understand this.
I completely agree it wouldn't be logical for it to drop that much. I mean I'm talking about at that point Tesla being value at 1.5-2 trillion dollars because it would mean they achieved FSD and are first to market. I just think there would be some irrationality and fear spread that could cause a sizable drop. 30% would be a worse case to me.
Ah, if "everybody has their price", then what is the true price of evil at Tesla? Already one turned down a million, but does
that mean iterate until "successful"? (That might be too obvious.)
Perhaps only 100 have true power to "putback" changes to the critical codebase.
Could be that many of those have over 10M in Tesla option/RSU's already, so can't be bought. This gets statistical fast, so perhaps
this is where business interruption insurance, or "errors and omissions", or for SpaceX, actual rocket insurance, comes in to play. (Via, say, handicapping the statistical value of a human life, currently around $10M in the US.) What price black swan insurance in the markets?
It is unlikely that Tesla wants to talk about any of this stuff, except to have Elon say "we figured this all out a while back".
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Ditto. Each reference to “electronic” vehicles was cringy. There seems to be an “electronic vehicles” club, of sorts.
I look forward to the follow-up video, if Trainer accepts Rob’s offer. As it was, Rob was able to open his eyes to many important Tesla facts/details that he ‘overlooked’ for his note.
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Holy crap I just realized this occurred on my birthday within minutes of my birth.
I should have borrowed more money on that buy signal!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed. I would also now be in favor of a Cap raise. Say a modest 65M shares @ $450 (post split). This provides half the liquidity that will be sought by NDX funds, and $30B cash to Tesla.
This retires Tesla long-term debt completely, and simultaneously increases Tesla's cash position more than 200% for just about 7% dilution:
- $30B Cap raise:
- $12B to retire debt
- $18B to cash:
- adds to $8B current cash
- $26B cash after Cap raise
- 225% increase in Cash postion
This also allows Tesla to accelerate the build-out of the Megacharger Network for Tesla Semi, and to prioritize the transition to large scale production for Semi. More dedicated powertrain manufacturing facilities in Texas, including new-tech batteries (taking load off of GF1/Sparks 2170 lines).
Or buy mining companies. Or become a battery supplier to any remaining automakers
On the short side, I think S&P should give NDX funds 1 quarter to build their TSLA positions after the Cap raise (50% right away, remaining 50% by end of 2020). This puts the shorts in an unenvious position: every share sold at below Market Value will be eagerly snapped up by an nearly insatiable demand from NDX funds:
"Go ahead, short my day. Question is, do ya' feel lucky, punk?"
Eventually, the shorts get squeezed out, find greener pastures, and move on. TSLA stabilizes at a higher equilibrium SP, and begins its multi-year run toward a Trillion+ Mkt Cap.
And so, Tesla accelerates the World's transition to renewable energy. I'm for it.
Cheers!
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, notice that intraday spread? $10.74 a sure sign of the "10-bagger" to come...
Cheers!
Indeed. I would also now be in favor of a Cap raise. Say a modest 65M shares @ $450 (post split). This provides half the liquidity that will be sought by NDX funds, and $30B cash to Tesla.
This retires Tesla long-term debt completely, and simultaneously increases their cash position more than 100% for about 7% dilution.
With that amount of cash on hand, Tesla can fast-track its build program as much as posible, the acceration of which alone may pay for the dilution due to seizing Tesla's 'First Mover' advantage in EVs, but especially in battery manufacturing, and associated T.E. products like Megapack.
This also allow Tesla to massively accelerate the build-out of the Megacharger Network for Tesla Semi, and to prioritize the transition to large scale production for Semi.
On the short side, I think S&P should give NDX funds 1 quarter to build their TSLA positions after the Cap raise (50% right away, remaining 50% by end of 2020). This puts the shorts in an unenvious position: every share sold at below Market Value will be eagerly snapped up by an nearly insatiable demand from NDX funds:
"Go ahead, short my day. Question is, do ya' feel lucky, punk?"
Eventually, the shorts get squeezed out, find greener pastures, and move on. TSLA stabilizes at a higher equilibrium SP, and begins its multi-year run toward a Trillion+ Mkt Cap.
Cheers!
At this share price level, I'm fine with them doing a small offering to appease S&P but 65 million shares seems very much overkill. The Fed is openly saying debt will be extremely cheap for the foreseeable future. Unless Battery Day reveals potential to scale faster by throwing more money at it, I'm sticking with what Elon has said himself "Throwing more money at things would not make scaling any faster and just create inefficiencies in the company".
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The FED is giving NONE of that liquidity to Tesla. It's because the ratings agencies like Moody's are slow-walking the credit upgrades for Tesla (FED only buys bonds from 'investment' grade companies, as defined by their credit rating).
Telsa with $25B+ cash on hand and ZERO debt gets an immediate upgrade to a high credit rating.
Once Tesla has that high credit rating, it can start selling bonds to the FED. Personally, I think thats the time to hit da shortzes with a share buy-back program, but hey that's just because I'd like to see blood running in the Street...
Proving once again, when you no longer need money, banks will trip over themselves to give you more.
By the way, on Monday there will be about 932M outstanding shares of TSLA. 65M is only 7%, as I said above. Isn't that worth a 225% increase in cash on hand? I suspect Moody's would think so.
Cheers!
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