Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

CALLs and PUTs are also used by day traders. Instead of going long/short the stock, they buy CALLs or PUTs to speculate on very short term price movements. That's why you often see absurd option volumes that don't translate to open interest.

Check out this post from earlier today.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[FrankSG]

Check out this post from earlier today.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

What about it? I saw it, liked it, and agree that it explains the unusual OI around $2,100 this week.

 

[smorgasbord]

We have a Generac "Whole House" (20 kW) natural gas generator. I’m mortified, but I did the calculations on how many Powerwalls it would take to keep the house powered and the AC running for a week following a hurricane in Texas in August. Not an option.)

Is the idea to have enough Powerwalls to get you through 24-36 hours and rely on charging via solar during the day times to carry you through multiple days?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Is the idea to have enough Powerwalls to get you through 24-36 hours and rely on charging via solar during the day times to carry you through multiple days?

Solar not sanctioned here yet.

 

[vikings123]

What about it? I saw it, liked it, and agree that it explains the unusual OI around $2,100 this week.

Ah ok, I was not sure you had read that post. There’s obviously a lot of posts to sift through these past two weeks and for good reasons.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Like @Artful Dodger pointed out earlier, they took it all the way to upper BB and then brought it all the way down to fill the gap. So predictable.

Time to introduce phase 2 of the 'Hiro plan': burying abusive Market Makers and Hedgefunds. Follow along:

1. the S&P Committee will naturally be conflicted over admitting TSLA to the NDX
   1. they want large, high growth Companies, however
      
   2. they don't want stock tickers that are constantly whip-sawed by shorts
2. so to move on to phase 2 (S&P 500 listing), TSLA must 'shred the shorts'
3. note that large passive index funds (ie: Vanguard) are 'Shareholders of Record', not 'Beneficial Owners'
4. this means that MM shenanigans are no longer possible for the ~26M shares going to these NDX funds
5. this effectively decreases the float available to abusive MMs, because their disengenuous 'promises to deliver' will carry no weight while NDX funds pursue fewer and fewer shares
6. if any MMs tries massive naked shortselling post-S&P announcement, those phantom shares have a very strong likelyhood of being bought with the (very real) money of a 'Shareholder of Record', one who will not be satisfied with a 'failure to deliver' event: they want the actual SHARES
7. any such MM will be forced to borrow actual shares to deliver to replace their failed phantom shares, which will drive up the cost of borrowing, and ultimately reduce the supply of shares available to borrow
8. this last bit is the key: the market forces of supply and demand will be restored to TSLA when phase 2 kicks in, that is, the S&P 500 announcement
9. Supply will meet demand at an elevated equlibrium share price; this is not novel, this is the way Markets are supposed to work

TL;dr Abusive MMs/Hedgies are stuffed. Elon tried to warn them. Poetry is in motion. Buckle up.

Cheers!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Last Friday I initiated a straddle option play:

Bought 4 (Oct 2) calls strike $2050
Bought 4 (Oct 2) puts strike $2050
TSLA price at time of trade: ~$2050
cost of straddle $44,710ea = $178,840 total

If price stays around $2050 through Oct 2 max loss is $178,840.

Here is where it stands today:

TSLA sh price= $2238
Oct 2
Call strike $2050 : $51,664 profit
Put strike $2050 : -$20,884 loss
Total profit/loss: $30,780 profit (17.21%)
TSLA sh price $2238- $2050 = $188 ( 9.17%)

So a straddle play that there will be price volatility (doesn't matter if it's up or down) resulted in a 17.21% profit on a share price movement of 9.17%. What I like is that this trade provides downside risk in the event of a major correction or negative volatility.

I noticed option IV went up to the high 90s today too. I expect we will continue to see a lot of volatility in TSLA due to the short term events we are expecting and option straddles seem like a good tool to use during these times.

 

[qphan79]

You’re needlessly worrying about hypotheticals that any of us have little chance of predicting. Just sell when your research indicates that Tesla is no longer growing or able to execute to your expectations. Or just sell 2022 calls at the highest strike price. You can net $44k per call on a $4200 strike price right now. Investing is all about risk/reward. Sounds like you’re not comfortable with that risk/reward ratio at these levels. Deleverage than my man!

Well, according to some here, you have NOTHING to worry about with that happening to TSLA. The stock is immune from such sustained declines since it's been around more than 10 years and Amazon was only 3.

Oh, what's that? Nvidia suffered a multi-year decline in its stock after being around for 25 years? That's completely different and can't happen to TSLA. Tesla is only like the good parts of being a tech company, not the bad parts.

 

[AlMc]

We have a Generac "Whole House" (20 kW) natural gas generator. I’m mortified, but I did the calculations on how many Powerwalls it would take to keep the house powered and the AC running for a week following a hurricane in Texas in August. Not an option.

IMO there is still a market for these rarely-used yet vital power sources. Lest you think I’m a weenie, I have suffered through 10-days post-hurticane power outage. A more miserable experience you cannot image (I bow to our Florida members from 2005).

While I live in Delaware my house is on a fairly isolated part of the grid. Prolonged power outages happen 2-4 times per year. I have a similar generator (25kW) that supplies the whole house and I can keep neighbors freezers/fridges going as well (long extension cord!)

In addition it is heavily wooded and I asked a local solar installer about going solar with battery storage. He laughed as he told me he did not want to steal my $.

Tesla can solve many energy needs, but not every one.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Time to introduce phase 2 of the 'Hiro plan': burying abusive Market Makers and Hedgefunds. Follow along:

1. the S&P Committee will naturally be conflicted over admitting TSLA to the NDX
   1. they want large, high growth Companies, however
      
   2. they don't want stock tickers that are constantly whip-sawed by shorts
2. so to move on to phase 2 (S&P 500 listing), TSLA must 'shred the shorts'
3. note that large passive index funds (ie: Vanguard) are 'Shareholders of Record', not 'Beneficial Owners'
4. this means that MM shenanigans are no longer possible for the ~26M shares going to these NDX funds
5. this effectively decreases the float available to abusive MMs, because their disengenuous 'promises to deliver' will carry no weight while NDX funds pursue fewer and fewer shares
6. if any MMs tries massive naked shortselling post-S&P announcement, those phantom shares have a very strong likelyhood of being bought with the (very real) money of a 'Shareholder of Record', one who will not be satisfied with a 'failure to deliver' event: they want the actual SHARES
7. any such MM will be forced to borrow actual shares to deliver to replace their failed phantom shares, which will drive up the cost of borrowing, and ultimately reduce the supply of shares available to borrow
8. this last bit is the key: the market forces of supply and demand will be restored to TSLA when phase 2 kicks in, that is, the S&P 500 announcement
9. Supply will meet demand at an elevated equlibrium share price; this is not novel, this is the way Markets are supposed to work

TL;dr Abusive MMs/Hedgies are stuffed. Elon tried to warn them. Poetry is in motion. Buckle up.

Cheers!

Really.

 

[reardencode]

Cramer's lightning round: It's not too late to get in Generac


Generac: “The stock is up huge, but it’s still not too late because our power grid is failing so badly in this country that Generac is the answer.”


Can anyone suggest a stock to Cramer that can provide whole house power with little maintenance, no diesel, and allows you to save money on electricity costs ALL year long and not just be useful during rare outages?

Generac is probably up partly because of their solar inverter+battery offering too.

 

[Bet TSLA]

My guess is that this will become clear, and this coming week will see the last of this mystery rise, with only the last stragglers participating so fairly muted. And then the next week will be down, maybe one third of what the final split rise turns out to be after the coming week. Maybe even down hard on the 28th in anticipation.

So back to 1750 or so by September 4? Of course all bets are off if S&P 500 inclusion is announced. So that wild card will prevent the stock from falling too far. But I think the week starting August 31 is likely to be rather tricky for traders.

I expect I'll write a few puts for fun this coming week, and then not play the week after. And perhaps even turn some calls into a bull spread to protect my gains.

Well, my prediction isn't too far off the mark so far. After going up 49% in the previous eight trading sessions since the announcement of the split, this week we've gone up 9% in four trading sessions. So, as predicted, a continued rise, but comparatively muted. We'll have to see whether tomorrow and next week continue as predicted.

I did write 20 8/28 2130 puts on Monday for $105. Sadly, I called the dip all wrong and wrote them when TSLA was at 2106 rather than at its eventual low of 1927. C'est la vie. Put me rather quickly down over $200K on the trade. But I didn't close the position until this morning, for $17 when TSLA was at 2210, which was about $175K profit.

Doing a little better with catching the dip, later today I wrote 10 8/28 2180 puts for $58 when TSLA was at 2163 (missing the $2140 low by a fair amount). That's $58K potential profit, so far up $39K and we'll see how tomorrow goes. There's a chance I'll get to see them expire worthless, but we'll have to see how the day looks.

I still have my worry expressed above that TSLA may be down hard tomorrow, likely towards the end of the day. But the mood may end up being more anticipatory than worried. We shall see.

And yeah, this monstrous rise is all good for my core position, but short term trading around the edges is fun. And sometimes profitable.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Not so much thing #2, but more like thing #1 (but from the inside, not thru external code injection).

So you blackmail Tesla for say $10 million. Then you have to spend the rest of your life knowing Elon is spending all his resources on building a self aware killer robot that is searching the planet for you.

Safer to do it to somebody else and then invest the ransom in Tesla stock.

 

[Artful Dodger]

First person killed by an autonomous car will definitely take a easy 30% of the share price.......this is of course after the stock has quadrupled from here due to FSD/Autonomy being real.

You know this has already happened in Tempe, AZ right? And it killed UBER's autonomous driving test program? Blamed the min. wage 'safety' driver for the accident. UBER had already disabled the emergency braking function due to too many phantom braking events before it ran over the jay-walking pedestrian at night. Computer logs say the system detected her, but didn't apply the brakes because, well, disabled in software.

This was Mar 18, 2018, before UBER's IPO. Didn't seem to bother them though. The self-driving test program was cancelled.

 

[Thekiwi]

This has been my concern since Tesla started to sell the Model S in Europe and Asia. In those countries the Model S is too big for cities to park in the street or inside inderground parking lots.
The Model 3 is not really shorter than the Model S, and don't have a hatch back. The Model Y is even bigger than the Model 3.
I wonder if Tesla use any focus group or even use a little bit of common sense.
Honestly I am a little bit surprised and even frustrated in some way.
So the next car made after the Model S was the Model X. Well it tooks many years to deliver it because of the falcom doors. The idea of those doors was to avoid using a sliding door. However if you have a six seats, you pass by the center to access the 3rd row. So the falcon doors are not so needed.There is even a 5 seats version. This shows that there is a market for regular door. Making a Model X with regular doors like a Range Rover would be great and this explain the success of the Audi e-tron compared to the Model X in Europe. (see numbers above).
So after again many years the Model 3 was introduced, but everyone were making comments about the sedan style selected instead of the hatch back. So certainly not a vision for conquering any mass markets in Europe and Asia.
So again about 4 years later the Model Y was presented. At least without falcon doors, but bigger and still too big for foreign markets.
Well finaly a smaller Tesla will be designed, but why having waited for so many years. I guess a compact Tesla might presented in (end of 2021)? And stated to be build in 2023 or 2024?

Right, and I think its important for people here to understand this isn't about Tesla making a cheaper vehicle, its simply about a smaller form factor (shorter & skinnier) - doesn't matter if it's the same price as the model 3, even if it has a lower range.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla can solve many energy needs, but not every one.

Clearly you need a Powerpack. Or Megapack.

 

[smorgasbord]

Last Friday I initiated a straddle option play:

Bought 4 (Oct 2) calls strike $2050
Bought 4 (Oct 2) puts strike $2050
TSLA price at time of trade: ~$2050
cost of straddle $44,710ea = $178,840 total

If price stays around $2050 through Oct 2 max loss is $178,840.

Here is where it stands today:

TSLA sh price= $2238
Oct 2
Call strike $2050 : $51,664 profit
Put strike $2050 : -$20,884 loss
Total profit/loss: $30,780 profit (17.21%)
TSLA sh price $2238- $2050 = $188 ( 9.17%)

So a straddle play that there will be price volatility (doesn't matter if it's up or down) resulted in a 17.21% profit on a share price movement of 9.17%. What I like is that this trade provides downside risk in the event of a major correction or negative volatility.

I noticed option IV went up to the high 90s today too. I expect we will continue to see a lot of volatility in TSLA due to the short term events we are expecting and option straddles seem like a good tool to use during these times.

You don't quite have a profit of $30,780, you have a loss of $178,840-30,780= $148,060
So far.

Have you figured out how far TSLA needs to move either way by Oct 2 to make the trade break-even?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Generac is probably up partly because of their solar inverter+battery offering too.

I would assume so. This isn't a new development with Generac, they pushed real hard into the battery storage market a ways back. And why not? They're a modest sized company with actual engineers at the helm, they saw the writing on the wall earlier than most and very quickly adapted.

I was wildly impressed when I read about their pivot to battery storage before the market was huge. Any legacy firm that sincerely shifts to the future that's displacing their past should be cheered by all Tesla fans.

No idea if their battery products are any good or priced well. After you pay all the suppliers, I doubt it.

 

[Knightshade]

You know this has already happened in Tempe, AZ right? And it killed UBER's autonomous driving test program? Blamed the min. wage 'safety' driver for the accident. UBER had already disabled the emergency braking function due to too many phantom braking events before it ran over the jay-walking pedestrian at night. Computer logs say the system detected her, but didn't apply the brakes because, well, disabled in software.

This was Mar 18, 2018, before UBER's IPO. Didn't seem to bother them though. The self-driving test program was cancelled.

You're the second person to claim this "killed" their self driving program and that it was cancelled.

Uber appears to not be aware of this claim and continues to operate the program anyway. Someone should tell them


Testing DID stop for 9 months after the death- but then resumed (in Pittsburgh IIRC) after those 9 months and has been expanding ever since and is in multiple cities now.

Self-Driving Vehicles in Cities | Uber ATG


None of this is to say they're especially close to having a finished product, but the program sure isn't cancelled or dead.

 

[jhm]

10 years? Are you trying to fill a swimming pool with cash?

I was hoping to fill my pool with Tesla shares, but it turns out cash would be much cheaper.