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Any predictions for the day?

I'm going for a dip to start, maybe as low as 322, with resistance around that mark then backup to to test the 335.5 again.

This is due to trumps wall speech and the China trade deal ongoing.

It could be that if trump is doubling down on the wall he cant fight equally on all fronts. maybe he is making a fuss over the wall because he knows some agreement is coming with china and can switch focus?
Maybe wishful thinking :D
 
Came to skim the thread now that part 2 of the video is out, and even HyperChange did a bit about, to see what the current consensus is. So this is where we are now? Blaming the customers? If you've ever had to go back and forth on anything with Tesla, you know the program... I find nothing unbelievable about these stories, given the clown show my delivery way back in 2015 was, and then my friend's deliveries in 2018.


The way out of this is investors sending a clear message to Tesla. Not apologetics.

Excuse me, but why are you acting like I didn't also write:

I got that their automated reminder system is buggy and not correlated with what's actually going on at a given store or service centre, but that's not exactly news. Also some service centres and stores haven't been able to keep up with hiring vs. matching the volume they're dealing with, but again, that's not exactly news.

One can observe that Tesla needs to improve its customer service to stop people like him from falling through the cracks while simultaneously observing that it's weird AF to buy a used car sight-unseen, not even with photos, saying "I'll just fix any cosmetic issues it has", and then when you find out it has curb rash, throwing a fit about that and demanding it be fixed.

So I believe most of the 20,000 employees planned for the Gigafactory will be for vehicle assembly: Tesla Model Y and Tesla Semi trucks. I know that @neroden and @KarenRei is worried about the tight labor market in Nevada: I believe once actual cars are made there's going to be a significant influx of capable young (and not so young) people from the Rust Belt to Nevada

"Not I!" said the Karen ;) I was arguing on the same side as you in this regard. :)
 
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Semi-OT, Brexit outcome will determine $TSLA sentiment for February-March - starting with a market panic after the January 14th UK vote that is going to reject the 2018 EU agreement:



That's one of the big misconceptions about Brexit: that bilateral treaties will 'solve' the problem. They won't - and that's one of the reasons why the UK hasn't been re-negotiating treaties in the last 2 years to prepare for Brexit!

The biggest damage from Brexit is losing automatic access to the European Single Market, including the shared financial markets. No amount of bilateral agreements are going to solve that - and any sort of customs barrier is going to hurt just-in-time manufacturing flows via mandatory customs delays for which the UK has no capacity at the moment. For example even if the UK has a bilateral agreement with France, France is obligated by EU rules to protect the EU single market, i.e. customs checks are mandatory for all goods that enter the EU from the UK. Only an agreement with the EU can remove these delays and expenses.

With Brexit the UK is falling back to the trade position that a second/third-tier location like Turkey has, but with the additional disadvantage of high costs of living and high labor costs. After Brexit both UK cost of living and wages will have to drop significantly for the UK to become competitive. (Read: UK recession.)

In that sense a hard Brexit ('no deal' outcome) will be the most damaging economically (to the UK - the EU will manage), because it will immediately erect trade barriers with only a few months of reprieve after March 29 (and totally at the discretion of the EU). With the '2018 deal' the damage is delayed by about two years - but will be still just as damaging in 2020.

So it's going to be a cluster-sugar with or without bilateral trade agreements, and most of the past few months of UK politics has been about positioning to shift the blame to others for the inevitable Brexit fallout that is going to be hugely negative...

Remember: a big motivation behind Brexit was Murdoch's desire to evade European anti-trust rules regarding concentrated media ownership. This is why Fleet Street tabloids have been spewing anti-EU agitprop for years to poison the UK electorate's opinion about the EU. The Murdochs don't give a flying sugar about trade barriers - it's not their business.
Calais Port Chief: Dover Queue Scaremongering "Is Not True" - And a little more-- Jean-Claude Juncker's boast about the euro is an insulting fantasy - CapX
 
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Nice:

Chinese premier meets with Tesla's Musk as trade talks end
Posted on Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 By The Associated Press

BEIJING (AP) — 8:00 p.m.

China's top economic official, Premier Li Keqiang, has met with the CEO of electric car brand Tesla Inc., Elon Musk.

Musk and other businessmen met with Li on Wednesday in Beijing at the Great Hall of the People.

Tesla broke ground this week in Shanghai on its first factory outside the United States. Musk says production of Tesla's Model 3 will start late this year.

Li told Musk he hoped Tesla can become an "in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."
 
Nice:

Chinese premier meets with Tesla's Musk as trade talks end
Posted on Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 By The Associated Press

BEIJING (AP) — 8:00 p.m.

China's top economic official, Premier Li Keqiang, has met with the CEO of electric car brand Tesla Inc., Elon Musk.

Musk and other businessmen met with Li on Wednesday in Beijing at the Great Hall of the People.

Tesla broke ground this week in Shanghai on its first factory outside the United States. Musk says production of Tesla's Model 3 will start late this year.

Li told Musk he hoped Tesla can become an "in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."

BTW., here's Premier Li Keqiang's educational background:

"He earned a PhD in economics in 1995, and the prominent economist Li Yining (no relation) was his doctoral advisor. His doctoral dissertation was awarded the Sun Yefang Prize, China's highest prize in economics."​

China's leadership is highly technocratic.

Here's a random anecdote about Premier Li, from 3 years ago:

Premier Li critiques student's thesis at Peking University|Society|chinadaily.com.cn

"Your topic is too broad," Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said to a Peking University student upon learning that his thesis title was "The Role of General Transfer Payments in Local Public Spending." Premier Li suggested that the student choose a narrower topic.

Li chatted with students in the university's cafeteria about a number of subjects, including food prices at the canteen, student grants and oil production.

"Great undertakings have small beginnings," Premier Li told the students. "It is like the food we eat; whether a dish is good or bad comes down to the details."​

If he had any chance to chat with Elon I suspect they got along very well.
 
Semi-OT, Brexit outcome will determine $TSLA sentiment for February-March - starting with a market panic after the January 14th UK vote that is going to reject the 2018 EU agreement:



That's one of the big misconceptions about Brexit: that bilateral treaties will 'solve' the problem. They won't - and that's one of the reasons why the UK hasn't been re-negotiating treaties in the last 2 years to prepare for Brexit!

The biggest damage from Brexit is losing automatic access to the European Single Market, including the shared financial markets. No amount of bilateral agreements are going to solve that - and any sort of customs barrier is going to hurt just-in-time manufacturing flows via mandatory customs delays for which the UK has no capacity at the moment. For example even if the UK has a bilateral agreement with France, France is obligated by EU rules to protect the EU single market, i.e. customs checks are mandatory for all goods that enter the EU from the UK. Only an agreement with the EU can remove these delays and expenses.

With Brexit the UK is falling back to the trade position that a second/third-tier location like Turkey has, but with the additional disadvantage of high costs of living and high labor costs. After Brexit both UK cost of living and wages will have to drop significantly for the UK to become competitive. (Read: UK recession.)

In that sense a hard Brexit ('no deal' outcome) will be the most damaging economically (to the UK - the EU will manage), because it will immediately erect trade barriers with only a few months of reprieve after March 29 (and totally at the discretion of the EU). With the '2018 deal' the damage is delayed by about two years - but will be still just as damaging in 2020.

So it's going to be a cluster-sugar with or without bilateral trade agreements, and most of the past few months of UK politics has been about positioning to shift the blame to others for the inevitable Brexit fallout that is going to be hugely negative...

Remember: a big motivation behind Brexit was Murdoch's desire to evade European anti-trust rules regarding concentrated media ownership. This is why Fleet Street tabloids have been spewing anti-EU agitprop for years to poison the UK electorate's opinion about the EU. The Murdochs don't give a flying sugar about trade barriers - it's not their business.


I always prefer to rip the band-aid off rapidly so the recovery can begin sooner. Sure it hurt as hell. It's actually interesting to know that some people prefer the slow method and see it as a positive.
 
The fact that China is clearly seeing Tesla as such a priority, and that they perceive Elon and his company as an important part of US-China trade relations should drive yet another nail into the coffin of the "Elon is a Fraud / GF3 is a Fraud / Tesla is a Fraud" short thesis.

There is a new short thesis looking to be spun, "China is having its way with Tesla", "Musk goes behind USA back on trade negotiations, and meets Chinese government alone". " Tesla sharing US secrets with China "... as we know nothing has to be true, just spin a headline and then say something like secrets to musk favour cake? It amazes me the headlines the media can get away with without finding them self in court for market manipulation

If Trumps trade comes off negative and tesla strikes a positive Chinese trade deal, Trump may see it as a personal attack!
 
Fred and his hit-pieces, creating negative news for nothing...

It may not be positive, but it seemed factual and the editorial part was reasonable.

Tesla has delisted the FSD option. New buyers, esp overseas, may not be aware of the time frame to get FSD. Others have advocated that Tesla shouldn't have been offering it on the past. Tesla will need to swap the AP computers on all FSD purchases, that is easier to mange (at least expectation wise) if people haven't prepaid.
 
OT:

I always prefer to rip the band-aid off rapidly so the recovery can begin sooner.

That's a myth. The fact is that:
  • Ripping off the band-aid from a serious or partially healed wound can cause injuries, cause infection, prolong healing and cause extra scabbing.
  • The pain is actually not mandatory. The best method to remove the band-aid is pain-free, i.e. when removing a band-aid from a child do it with some planning and intelligence applied: medical alcohol will dissolve the adhesive and will also help disinfect, but simply taking a warm bath will also weaken the adhesive and the band-aid will peel off.
Ripping off the band-aid is the lazy, painful, harmful solution.

Nor is the analogy even remotely accurate: the better analogy for Brexit would be for example to unilaterally take the Netflix or Spotify apps out of the iOS single market. It sure won't increase Netflix and Spotify sales and revenue, right?

(And that would be a more justified move, because the iOS tax is 30% of revenue - while the 'EU tax' is only 1% of revenue (GDP), a good deal of which is recycled back into the UK.)

Anyway, March 29 is only 2.5 months away, so we'll all see the negative effects of Brexit.
 
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It may not be positive, but it seemed factual and the editorial part was reasonable.
  • It's misleading: Tesla sales staff had been anti-selling the FSD option for years and the take-rate had been very low all along.
  • It's a necessity to downplay the FSD option: a customer buying FSD must be absolutely clear that the timing is uncertain. Tesla sales staff must anti-sell the FSD option, otherwise they'd be exposed to false advertising charges and generally would piss off customers unnecessarily. The honesty of the Tesla sales experience extends to the FSD option, and that's good.
  • It's also immaterial what Tesla sales staff says: it's very unlikely that they have some special channel of communications to the Autopilot group, being updated about FSD progress, right? They'll be notified of FSD capabilities the moment Tesla goes official with their first set of FSD features. In fact Fred will probably receive leaked FSD plans way before Tesla sales staff is informed ...
  • Yet selecting FSD is a valid way to future-proof your Tesla and increase resale value. We don't know how much the HW3 upgrade is going to cost.
  • Buying FSD is also a valid way to help Tesla - with the future-proofing a small bonus. Anecdotally a number of TMC members indicated that they bought the FSD option for such reasons.
Fred's click-bait articles, which almost invariably do the baiting at the expense of Tesla, are starting to become a net negative.
 
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