Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[reddit_tl]

An interesting question:
The colorado energy pack cost about 8M dollars for a 4 MegaW. That is 2000/kW. This is way above the car battery.
This is either extremely high margin (doubtful) or other cost dominates. Anyone knowledgable about this?

 

[uselesslogin]

Hmm, so should we expect daily downgrades until earnings now that the up-tick rule is lifted?

 

[SO16]

What's particularly off about this, unless something has changed in the past couple of years, Seeking Alpha is a blog site, not a news outlet. When I became a contributor (I have no background in journalism), their website indicated both that, ~50% of people seeking to be contributors are approved, and most importantly, that their explicit policy is to not fact check the blogs they "publish" from the "contributors." I once even discussed this with Tesla's VP of IR at the time, and he left me with the impression that Tesla's attorneys had looked at the Seeking Alpha phenomena, and had thoughts that the "no editorial review" policy was a device to side step legal responsibility for the ...uh, stuff... we see flowing out of SA in high volume.

Why do Seeking Alpha blogs (again, if nothing has changed in what they "publish") even show up in anything remotely resembling a newsfeed on Google or anywhere?

Because people click on them and money is what drives the Internet regardless of truth.

 

[W84M3]

Hmm, so should we expect daily downgrades until earnings now that the up-tick rule is lifted?

Yes, downgrades while hiking the EPS estimates.


Games are being played till next week.

 

[ReflexFunds]

An interesting question:
The colorado energy pack cost about 8M dollars for a 4 MegaW. That is 2000/kW. This is way above the car battery.
This is either extremely high margin (doubtful) or other cost dominates. Anyone knowledgable about this?

The battery is 4MW/16MWh, so implies $500/KWh.

The battery pack is likely $200/kwh then $50-100/kwh gross profit, c.$50/kwh sales tax and the rest inverter, installation, shipping, other electrical equipment etc.

A 4MW/4MWh battery would be significantly more expensive per kwh (maybe $700-800/kwh), because there is less leverage of the non battery pack costs.

 

[avoigt]

Just received a call from Tesla Germany.

They confirmed to me that given the amount of 3s they have to deliver and he mentioned mid of February to start, Tesla has and is in the process to build up delivery centers in all larger locations in order to manage the process.

One of those centers will be in Munich but there are many spread over Germany he confirmed. He could not answer if the same is happening in other EU countries.

He said they need this delivery centers because the volumes are too high to manage those from the showrooms.

This is a promising sign that we have in Germany a healthy and strong demand because otherwise they would not need to build many of this centers and could use the services centers and stores instead.

Its also a clear indication that future demand is expected to be strong too. In contrast Tesla did not need any delivery center for delivery of the S and X so far and admittedly the volumes have been low anyway.

 

[ggies07]

I am very confident that within 3 years, the Tesla share price will be at $1,000 and over $3,000 in 7-10 years. I am not selling any until we hit $1,000.

Funny, people a few years ago thought the price would be over $400 by now, but because of market manipulation and the shorts it's not....I hope it will be though as we are in different times with the company.....

 

[mrdoubleb]

How can anyone pay attention to an analyst who bases his valuation for one of the most controversial and difficult to value companies in history on a 5 minute incorrect back of the envelope calculation.
Firstly EBIT margin isn't a relevant way to model Model 3 profit when SG&A is not variable and not directly related to Model 3. Secondly he ignores that Tesla's 1 million target is 2020 and not 2025. Then he ignores Pickup, Y, Semi, Energy and Other businesses, all of which should be worth as much as Model 3. The he ignores self driving car option value which already gives UBER a $100bn valuation.

Also, he misses that the "straight talk" was to fired employees and not to investors. I'm sure Elon will have a different message with Q4 results.

Did he even consider S/X? You know, the 100k unit, $10Bn+ revenue business which has close to 30% gm?

 

[winfield100]

Lincoln Aviator priced from $52,195; plug-in hybrid model starts at $69,895 - TechCyberNews

Aviator is a CUV a bit bigger than a Model X.

wow, a 30 mile electric range for the $70,000 - $90,000 model, Tesla is ___doomed___, game ova.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Did he even consider S/X? You know, the 100k unit, $10Bn+ revenue business which has close to 30% gm?

He considered it, but he read on Twitter S&X volume is going to zero because of the Volt.

 

[cricketman]

20-25% was gross margins for Model 3.

This is a promising sign that we have in Germany a healthy and strong demand because otherwise they would not need to build many of this centers and could use the services centers and stores instead.

Its also a clear indication that future demand is expected to be strong too. In contrast Tesla did not need any delivery center for delivery of the S and X so far and admittedly the volumes have been low anyway.

On Friday, I had a call from Tesla Spain to arrange the delivery of my Model 3. They said it would arrive either last week in Feb or first week in March and I could choose to pick it up from Madrid or Barcelona. I also got an email today asking people in Spain to come to a test drive event for the Model 3, to drum up some demand I guess.

I don't think demand is great here. The price is still expensive for people in Spain and there is not a big electric car culture here yet. There are no tax incentives and people are late adopters for most technology.

Interestingly, my customer services contact was an Italian girl, speaking Spanish from the Netherlands, which says to me that hiring in Spain is yet to be a priority.

 

[AlexS]

Funny, people a few years ago thought the price would be over $400 by now, but because of market manipulation and the shorts it's not....I hope it will be though as we are in different times with the company.....

Yeah I think today thoughts are more like, can we hit pre Q3 lows or price will hold higher before Q4 ER

 

[SebastianR]

First 3s in Vienna.

@Fact Checking can you confirm


nextmove‏ @nextmove_de
Die Vorhut ist gelandet. Drei rote @Tesla #Model3 Performance in #Wien gesichtet. ...ausatmen nicht vergessen! ;-) #heartbeat @Tesla #teslamodel3


3:48 AM - 22 Jan 2019

Europe is moving forward. A more important market for the 3 than the US - with likely more sales than in the US. With an established and expanding SC network in EU the 3 has best chances to win and dominate that market quickly.

Totoro‏ @terra_mm
Test drive of Tesla Model 3 in Sweden (Stockholm, Malmö, Gothenburg) from 25 January!


12:43 AM - 23 Jan 2019
Totoro on Twitter

Wow, this is really going super well! I'm sure this generates a whole lot more buzz in Europe soon...

Pre-market trading is pretty light so far: 10k shares traded so far - yesterday it was already at around 100k shares this early in.

But yeah, still no strong pullback and re-test to define a clear bottom, and macros are sideways, with NASDAQ futures up a bit (+0.15%).

None of the big macro crises has shown a breakthrough towards a resolution yet:

• still no end in sight of the U.S. government shutdown ,
• still no clear path forward for Brexit,
• still unclear whether the China tariffs will go back in effect early March,
• ripple effects of China demand weakening are still unclear,
• The Fed is in a 'wait and see' mode,
  
• as a result U.S. recession fears are still on: any of the previous macro factors could trigger a recession, the combination would guarantee one.

Elon's email also gifted shorts about 1 billion dollars of trading power last Friday. So it would be perfect timing for a bear attack, strategic "downgrades" of $TSLA by investment banks who happen to be short, especially as uncertainty is high prior the earnings report. So I'd suggest buckling up until January 30. Not advice.

So with all this - where are we with the Greed & Fear Index today? Pretty much neutral (a week ago we were firmly on the fear side)

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

It is a really funny situation to be in. And a really interesting time for ER now...

 

[AlexS]

Jim Chanos on twitter says that e-mail from Elon might be a bear trap, but it won't matter if there will be no 1H guidance. And I can agree that we need a guidance and not just for 1H but for complete year.

Diogenes on Twitter

 

[anthonyj]

Stop blaming the shorts. “Longs” are guilty too for turning this into a swing trade

 

[anthonyj]

Everyone is waiting for $250-270. Lots of stop losses there so institutions can get shares for cheap. And then they will begin their dumps $360+ until the next Q. Unreal how sentiment of this company can shift day to day, and that’s all it trades off of

 

[dmvevguy]

I'm buying now...too good of a sale!

 

[WarpedOne]

Future Tesla is a private company.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Jim Chanos on twitter says that e-mail from Elon might be a bear trap, but it won't matter if there will be no 1H guidance. And I can agree that we need a guidance and not just for 1H but for complete year.

Diogenes on Twitter

Jim Chanos?
Who's that guy? Didn't he used to be in the stock business? lol

Dan

 

[mltv]

Sold last Friday just cleared and bought all back today and more.