Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Dropping the 75kWh makes perfect sense. They added that to reach down market. No need now with the 3.

Attention to:

That's a shame. I'm hoping they at least get them on the 2170s. Although they have no serious competition so that just has to happen before the Etron and others hit the market.

 

[shlokavica22]

Its possible that Tesla calculated that of the people who would have bought a 75kWh S/X, a percentage would opt for the 100kWh S/X or a P3D instead, and that the extra 100kWh S/X and P3D profits would be greater than the lost 75kWh sales. Also, less versions mean more efficiencies on the remaining lines, and more room to expand.

Not only that, but having more Model 3 cars on the road (instead of Model S 75) will give more exposure and increase the demand.

 

[anthonyj]

Any news about the Lathrop building? It seems to my they might move S/X production there. I don't have any numbers, but just by comparing the footprint in Google maps it seems like it could be the 1/4 size of Fremont, which might be enough space for S/X production of 100k /year. So if Fremont is now full with 5k/week model 3 production, it might be logical take the S/X production elsewhere and use Fremont solely for model 3. Which would give them space to scale the production to about 9-10k/week (assuming model 3 production needs half the space of S/X) and possibility to cut staff (assuming remaining people working on S/X will be transferred to 3 and it being enough to produce 4-5k model 3s).

And also building new production lines for S/X would mean they can implement new knowledge gained ramping up model 3 lines and maybe even do even bigger one time model updates which would be harder to do on running lines in Fremont (for example including 2170 batteries). What do you think?

This makes sense because they can then move Model Y and Semi into Fremont since they share a lot with Model 3

 

[SOULPEDL]

Can't ignore the VINs posted yesterday (even bloomberg trending up on limited data). What I hear is the sound of the 1st Stage throttling back before kicking in 2nd Stage for orbit - all systems GO.

I bet Goldman Sachs is buying right now... So predictable! I might even buy more today after getting my 50 shares at $293 early this morning.

Always buy into the falling knife with Tesla, increase quantities the lower it goes, that's how you catch it every time. IMO, it will be $350 within 30 days, and for sure in the next year. Don't miss this sale, might be the last time below 300.

 

[avoigt]

People like Anton are not confused. Their sole purpose is to spin EVERYTHING negative in order to make a buck.

I am not concerned about confused shorts. Actually I consider them all as confused already because all what they need to do is to have a look at a 5 year Tesla chart to get the picture.

I am concerned though about confused longs as they are the ones selling and bringing the SP down. Shorts can only create the impression of a drifting SP for a short period of time and rely on weak longs to sell before they start to cover again.

 

[EVNow]

This disgruntled fired employee obviously has no idea what he is talking about.

What ? An assembly worker doesn't know what happens in Elon's staff meetings ?

 

[dmvevguy]

Regardless of the FUD, etc. I love these prices. I always am on auto-buys anything < $300. I'm happy to see the advanced summon being "regulatory approved" as it shows continuous progress of their AI development. Can't wait to hear about the FSD testing going on now...hopefully Elon will give an update on the testing of FSD and the real coast to coast demo!

 

[ggr]

I wished but did not receive. The man at the top cared too much for the plebes.

Like us, you mean?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Any news about the Lathrop building? It seems to my they might move S/X production there. I don't have any numbers, but just by comparing the footprint in Google maps it seems like it could be the 1/4 size of Fremont, which might be enough space for S/X production of 100k /year. So if Fremont is now full with 5k/week model 3 production, it might be logical take the S/X production elsewhere and use Fremont solely for model 3. Which would give them space to scale the production to about 9-10k/week (assuming model 3 production needs half the space of S/X) and possibility to cut staff (assuming remaining people working on S/X will be transferred to 3 and it being enough to produce 4-5k model 3s).

And also building new production lines for S/X would mean they can implement new knowledge gained ramping up model 3 lines and maybe even do even bigger one time model updates which would be harder to do on running lines in Fremont (for example including 2170 batteries). What do you think?

The building is big, but not set up for manufacturing. The whole side is full of loadings docks. It also doesn’t have enough parking space. It will likely be a central parts storage and distribution center for NA and that is a good thing. Tesla needs to structurally improve parts availability and delivery times.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 44 minutes ago: Tesla: Model S, Model X production changes due to efficiencies

 

[Greenback]

 

[ggr]

like to consider all angels that can impact the price

"Zis is TMC. Ve don't talk about religion here!" -- paraphrased Get Smart.

 

[abasile]

It is positive that Tesla continues to achieve greater efficiencies in S/X production and that they have the potential to produce more units in the future.

What I see as neutral or perhaps negative is that production is acknowledged by Tesla to be limited by demand. In the US, I think it's clear that a significant amount of demand for all Tesla vehicles (S/3/X) was pulled forward to Q4 2018 due to the step-down of the federal tax credit.

Looking at some of the Model 3 delivery threads on this forum, I'm seeing very little US activity in 2019 so far. I think this will change, as Tesla vehicles remain quite desirable and demand will grow organically. There may be another rush of buyers in Q2, before the US tax credit gets cut in half again. But Q1 demand may prove to be quite low in the US. In addition, in the broader US auto market, Q1 is generally the slowest quarter.

Particularly in Europe and China, where most Q1 demand likely lies, the size of the Model 3 should be more appropriate for most buyers. There should consequently be little need to sell 75 kWh versions of the S/X outside North America, where the S/X are best positioned as vehicles for the wealthy. In China, in particular, the Model X is a very visible status symbol and I expect that high-end buyers will be happy to pay up for the 100 kWh version. For less wealthy buyers who want an SUV/CUV, the Model Y is set to be unveiled soon.

Also, I am still hoping that Tesla will soon introduce variants of the S and X with more battery capacity/range, followed eventually by a price decrease on the 100 kWh models. This would really cement Tesla's lead relative to new competitors like the i-Pace, e-Tron, and Taycan. But they can probably wait until at least Q2 to do this.

For those of us in North America who value the larger size of the S/X but aren't prepared to pay $100K for a vehicle, there's always the Tesla pre-owned market...

Tesla actually announced here that they have taken measure that will increase the production capacity as needed which means based on current demand mix. In other words they changed the production mix to optimize variations and to produce more units in the same time and very likely since the 75 S/X is stopped create more margin with higher profit.

That are great and positive news.

Some confused people see it as a negative.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't believe in a rational market. Maybe when investing wasn't so accessible and there weren't bots using algos to trade. Between the shorts piling on because they think converts will bankwupt TSLA to the amateur RH investors playing weeklies as if they're lotto tickets, any short-term news has a big impact. Combine that with macros down yesterday and today's MMD, and it makes sense. Glad the $288 support has held, or we could be down to ~$260...

Then I'd have to transfer more $ over to buy at fire sale prices

Before TSLA I mostly stuck to index funds. I was always skeptical of the rational market philosophy and following Tesla for the past few years has solidified that for me.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It is positive that Tesla continues to achieve greater efficiencies in S/X production and that they have the potential to produce more units in the future.

What I see as neutral or perhaps negative is that production is acknowledged by Tesla to be limited by demand. In the US, I think it's clear that a significant amount of demand for all Tesla vehicles (S/3/X) was pulled forward to Q4 2018 due to the step-down of the federal tax credit.

Looking at some of the Model 3 delivery threads on this forum, I'm seeing very little US activity in 2019 so far. I think this will change, as Tesla vehicles remain quite desirable and demand will grow organically. There may be another rush of buyers in Q2, before the US tax credit gets cut in half again. But Q1 demand may prove to be quite low in the US. In addition, in the broader US auto market, Q1 is generally the slowest quarter.

Particularly in Europe and China, where most Q1 demand likely lies, the size of the Model 3 should be more appropriate for most buyers. There should consequently be little need to sell 75 kWh versions of the S/X outside North America, where the S/X are best positioned as vehicles for the wealthy. In China, in particular, the Model X is a very visible status symbol and I expect that high-end buyers will be happy to pay up for the 100 kWh version. For less wealthy buyers who want an SUV/CUV, the Model Y is set to be unveiled soon.

Also, I am still hoping that Tesla will soon introduce variants of the S and X with more battery capacity/range, followed eventually by a price decrease on the 100 kWh models. This would really cement Tesla's lead relative to new competitors like the i-Pace, e-Tron, and Taycan. But they can probably wait until at least Q2 to do this.

For those of us in North America who value the larger size of the S/X but aren't prepared to pay $100K for a vehicle, there's always the Tesla pre-owned market...

Deliveries slow down a lot in the beginning of every quarter. That’ll go doubly for this quarter since so much of production early on is/would be for Europe/China.

 

[ReflexFunds]

View attachment 371190View attachment 371190

Vicki was also cut. I feel bad for her, I liked her Tesla updates and comments. Possibly her Twitter didn't help her in this review though.

She commented on significant reductions to paint repair time in mid December so I assume that was a large factor in the cuts to her team.

VICKI SALVADOR‏ @VickiSalvador
I think the quality has changed in the last week and paint is coming out super clean So repair time has been cut way down.
12:19 PM - 16 Dec 2018

 

[Unpilot]

Before TSLA I mostly stuck to index funds. I was always skeptical of the rational market philosophy and following Tesla for the past few years has solidified that for me.

Same I had most of my 401k in index funds. After I bought my MS I was subjected to mind control waves from I assume the radio and started buying Tesla stock.

Now every time I get in my car and go for a drive i have this strong urge to buy more.
Clearly Elon is sending subliminal commands to buy stock through the car.

I am doomed as I will be driving home from the airport today so it looks like I will have to by more stock!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I dipped into margin just a tad this morning to buy at 282, then sold about 10 minutes ago at 286(I don’t see it going up significantly until the ER, but can see it dropping further). Fun little swing trade. Still holding the lions share until at least the ER.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The bottom end of S/X production capacity would now be 50% (one shift eliminated) to a top end of 86% (cell count limitations). I suspect their actual capacity now, as they claim various efficiency improvements, is somewhere in the middle.

Speculating on the idea of improving efficiency and etc: Perhaps they will finally get around to making that S/X split section of the production line capable of both S/X production (they intended to, then never did - I don't recall if this was BIW or what, but something before GA), which would let them not only free space for other things, they could instead re-configure the original S line for S&X but in a more optimal fashion (and/or, for a refresh of some kind, etc), then swap lines and free the "old" combined line's space up.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Any news about the Lathrop building? It seems to my they might move S/X production there. I don't have any numbers, but just by comparing the footprint in Google maps it seems like it could be the 1/4 size of Fremont, which might be enough space for S/X production of 100k /year. So if Fremont is now full with 5k/week model 3 production, it might be logical take the S/X production elsewhere and use Fremont solely for model 3. Which would give them space to scale the production to about 9-10k/week (assuming model 3 production needs half the space of S/X) and possibility to cut staff (assuming remaining people working on S/X will be transferred to 3 and it being enough to produce 4-5k model 3s).

And also building new production lines for S/X would mean they can implement new knowledge gained ramping up model 3 lines and maybe even do even bigger one time model updates which would be harder to do on running lines in Fremont (for example including 2170 batteries). What do you think?

Welcome! Excellent first post!

So I still think it is very likely it will be a parts/distribution center - something much more mundane and boring (no pun intended) than we'd like. But, it would certainly be a mean surprise if they built a brand new GA line for S/X there, ramp production of a new 2170 equipped top of the line 120D, then as supplies run out of the 18650, a new 2170 100D base. Meanwhile stamping and paint could stay at Fremont, with the BIW being transported to Lathrop for final assemble. The space they gain at Fremont, once the old line shuts down, could be used for 3 and Y as they are supposedly sharing a lot of components.

Sounds super plausible. Still, we are just probably getting carried away.