Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Got a little more at $285. 700 shares now lol. 420 as my core, rest I’ll swing

 

[EVMeister]

420 as my core, rest I’ll swing

Love it!

 

[neroden]

Speculating on the idea of improving efficiency and etc: Perhaps they will finally get around to making that S/X split section of the production line capable of both S/X production (they intended to, then never did - I don't recall if this was BIW or what, but something before GA),

It's Body In White.
The X line takes up less space and uses fewer workers and is faster than the original S line; it was intended for S & X but S was never migrated to it. If they've figured out how to migrate S to it, *but it has a lower capacity than final assembly*, that would be a logical reason to cut the 75D, lay people off of the S & X production lines, clear out nights for line reconfiguration and testing,...

which would let them not only free space for other things, they could instead re-configure the original S line for S&X but in a more optimal fashion (and/or, for a refresh of some kind, etc)

The original S body line takes up a lot of space and is *very* manual even compared to the X line. You could reuse a bunch of the fancy powered tools, but it would essentially have to be redesigned from scratch. Given its factory location, I think it's more likely to be used for something else (Model 3 space needs).

This is pure speculation, of course. Perhaps I'll find out everyone they laid off is from the X body line.

 

[avoigt]

No surprise. More of that will surface once Tesla has been moving along and this years are declared history for BEVs.


David McLeod‏ @macrockets
So Mathew Battle admitted this week that he’s paid to bash Tesla all day, every day. Who else is paid to do this? $TSLA $TSLAQ

2h2 hours ago
Replying to @macrockets
Big oil pays me. $12.50/ hour is nothing to sneeze at.
Login on Twitter

 

[mickificki]

If anyone perceives me as extra critical of Donald Trump it’s because I am. He’s a complete jack-wagon on all levels and continues to be a huge embarrassment to this country.

speaking of jack-wagons....

 

[SOULPEDL]

@tivoboy I'm trying to sell put short, strike $300 for March that would trigger around $277 (price $39.5)
Do you think there is still chance we dive deep? Today's trading makes me think we may have turned a corner, so maybe I should just pull a trigger at current prices...

Didn't get my last buy at $277 as SP is getting on firm ground now. The storm is over IMO.

On the flip side, short interest is not as high as in the past - so either there aren't as many willing to risk that bet as before, or they're waiting in the wings. WTFK eh?

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Ding ding ding. This is a loophole which stock manipulators are driving a truck through. Take a "blog site" which explicitly *refuses* to fact-check *anything* even when verifiably false statements are reported to them. Manage to get anything published on it shoved into the Google/Yahoo/Fidelity/etc. newsfeeds. A gang of stock manipulators can then do whatever they want highly effectively.

It's very simple if you are short Tesla you sell massive amounts of stock while simultaneous publishing NEGATIVE news. The novice or dumb investor wakes up LOOSING money reads the article and SELLS because the EXPERTS told him to. You and I can buy all the stocks we want without affecting the price. Big money investors and hedge funds can't do this. It takes time to build your position when you have Billions to invest so why write anything bullish. Because of this the average investor never knows about the real money making stocks like Tesla.

 

[neroden]

From Vicki about the 75 S and X line. No surprise butl lets not forget more than compensates by the P3 AWD

have best friends that work there...morale isn’t good and everyone is scared. Model S/X production has slowed down considerably from what they are telling me

Eventually Tesla management is going to have to do something about the ways in which they damage employee morale, like being more organized and not as capricious. But that's a long-term issue, much longer term than customer service...

The other piece of information here is basically that S/X demand has dropped, which I guess we kind of expected due to the $7500 tax credit expiration and people switching to fully loaded Model 3s. I fully expect it to recover in Q2, though possibly not completely (due to fully loaded Model 3s). I don't know how competent Tesla management is, so I don't know if they're taking the time to put new efficiencies and improvements into the S & X lines -- converting two BIW lines to one would certainly be a major savings in many ways. They have definitely said they're not phasing out the S &X, and I believe them on that!

 

[Nocturnal]

Really trying to move things around to pick up some more shares. Hoping I can.

Looks like the "great deal maker" has boxed his rather large rear end into a box. He bowed to Pelosi on the SOTU that will cost him a few hugs from the Ann Coulter crowd. Someone needs to find a way to give the baby a pacifier so he can declare victory.

On topic as once the Gov opens and the "Gina" mess is over the stock will pop along with the rest of the Market.

So we are depending on him to do something good?
*sells all of the stocks

 

[mrdoubleb]

Get more data... Feed the machine.

That's already happening. Every Tesla has the AP hardware installed and EAP is running in shadow mode transmitting data back to the mothership, teaching the AI.

 

[larmor]

This definitely does imply that demand for Model S and X is lower right now.

Which should be expected since the $7500 tax credit just expired. This happens every single time any tax credit for EVs expires anywhere in the world: higher demand just before it expires, lower demand just after, then it resumes its normal level.

Perfect time to get some more downtime on the production lines in order to tweak and improve them.

However likely introduction of Model Y would be direct competitor to lower end MX. Also, not sure why the market is so worried about tsla, removing lower end products, making fewer higher end higher margin products, and reducing work force, for most normal companies is a win on the street. Of course in opposite world, tesla gets the hammer for making normal moves which companies due to ensure profitability.

 

[neroden]

In fact, after disgusting this news I did a quick survey of the user part of this forum. I have found not a single (!) post about a US customer asking questions with an eye toward a possible S/X order, let alone someone confirming a new order after new year.

That said, I wasn't finding many of those for the latter half of last year either? At this point, S and X buyers aren't early adopters. Few were asking questions in November, or October (I check intermittently). We're well into the "not signing up for an internet forum" demographic, making it harder to extrapolate. :-(

I certainly do think we're seeing a serious dip in S/X demand in the US due to th $7500 tax credit expiration, and possibly more permanent dips due to macro issues or Osbourning. I just don't want to over-read into the information.

I'm not seeing *any* complaints -- or other postings -- about Model 3 deliveries this year. I'm hoping that means deliveries are going smoothly, but maybe it means nobody is getting Model 3s deliveried! Or maybe we're just into the "not going to sign up for an Internet forum" demographic.

 

[uselesslogin]

Although there are no leaks about it I am still suspicious that they are going to try to move the S production onto the X body line, as originally planned. The original S body line takes up *oodles* of space, right in the middle of the factory, and is the most labor-intensive.

Right, I thought about it and they might be able to do that with an idle factory at night. It will be interesting to see what they do.

 

[Steve m]

This definitely does imply that demand for Model S and X is lower right now.

Which should be expected since the $7500 tax credit just expired. This happens every single time any tax credit for EVs expires anywhere in the world: higher demand just before it expires, lower demand just after, then it resumes its normal level.

Perfect time to get some more downtime on the production lines in order to tweak and improve them.

Only half the $7500 tax credit has expired

 

[KarenRei]

Didn't get my last buy at $277 as SP is getting on firm ground now. The storm is over IMO.

That's sort of like saying, "What's the worst that can happen?" You need to be sure to include the word "probably". But yes, it's looking like panic selling is being fended off by opportunistic buying now, something that tends to be self-reinforcing over time (in the absense of news)

 

[BaneBeater]

Every Tesla has the AP hardware installed and EAP is running in shadow mode transmitting data back to the mothership, teaching the AI.

Is there any proof of "shadow mode" and "data transmission back to the mothership"?

8 video feeds is a lot of raw and uncompressed data... That's a lot of data to both store and transmit, and definitely too much data to be sent over cellular networks.

I'm curious if anyone has actually looked at the data Tesla cars send over WiFi? Opened up the packets?

 

[KarenRei]

Right, I thought about it and they might be able to do that with an idle factory at night. It will be interesting to see what they do.

While modifying / moving lines isn't a reason for layoffs, it is an opportunity that's opened up, certainly. Being able to combine the S and X body lines would be a massive coup for Tesla in terms of both space and margins, if they could pull it off. They wouldn't even need to fully rip out the old idled S body line - they could instead focus on reworking it (heavily) for the Y, if they wanted Y production there.

 

[neroden]

Rumors I've found:
1 -- glass roof without anti-heat coating, with cloth headliner. Sounds crazy but apparently the anti-heat coating is really expensive?
2 -- new battery pack assembly design (Elon specifically mentioned this) which was supposed to come online in late Jan (so expect late Feb) which was supposed to be cheaper and faster to assemble and lighter. No recent news on this, but I doubt it's been abandoned.

ohhh.... also, for those talking about switching S & X to 21-70s. If this happens it will definitely be with the NEW battery pack assembly technology, so don't expect it to happen until that tech is (a) in Model 3 and (b) road-tested. I.e. they won't make that switch until late this year at the earliest.

 

[neroden]

Actually hadn't considered those shared resources recently. It's been a while since we knew what the bottlenecks were with any certainty, it could have been stamping (shared among all vehicles AFAIK?) was the bottleneck, and that a benefit of cutting the S/X 75D was freeing another bottleneck for 3 production. Or some other shared bottleneck (paint is the only one I know off the top of my head).

Floorspace, testing, and delivery logistics are the only other shared bottlenecks I can think of. There has been *repeated* talk of floorspace problems at Fremont, which is why I am really wondering about that original Model S Body In White line.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You need to be sure to include the word "probably"

Isn't that the same as IMO? Nothing's certain of course, so probably can apply to anything statistically. The sun will probably rise tomorrow, barring any negative news...