Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

But you aren't required to join the Audi program to use the chargers. And Ionity is currently just charging 8 Euro per session for anyone to use them. The 17.95/month is for the convenience of having one card/bill for all the charging networks. You can go directly to each network and bypass Audi.

The problem I see with this is the talk about charging to 80% is unlikely, at least on a long trip. If you are being billed per charging session you want to minimize the number of sessions which means that chargers at convenient locations will have high utilization from people trying to get to 100%. Time based billing makes a lot more sense as it encourages "fair" usage of the station.

 

[hobbes]

How do you get a purchase agreement from Tesla for a car that hasn't arrived yet? Does "I've configured and paid a down payment" count as a purchase agreement?

It is a two step process: Apply with the downpayment, and if accepted, you can be sure you´ll get the money later with the proof of complete payment.

As I said in my post, these numbers don´t compare because Model 3 was only eligible for about a week and the other vehicles for *much* longer and these are cumulative numbers. Maybe if I find the doc from Dec I could come up with incremental data for just Jan.

Edit: Typo. THX to @mongo for proof reading

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Buy Facebook and Tesla stock for the long haul

 

[Lucky_Man]

Not in port. Offshore. Just floating around.

Maybe avoiding bad weather? Hmm... looks like there's a low northwest of Europe, maybe that's it. Port resources was my previous theory, although I don't know why they couldn't have at least gotten closer.

OT - Comic Relief

Uh-oh! Have the Somali pirates relocated to the Azores? Or have the short-shorts established a piracy branch?

 

[MP3Mike]

InsideEVs has released their initial US sales numbers: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

2019 U.S. EV SALES JAN
Tesla Model 3* 6500
Honda Clarity PHEV* 1240
Toyota Prius Prime 1123
Tesla Model X* 950
Chevrolet Bolt EV* 925
Tesla Model S* 875
Ford Fusion Energi* 725
Nissan LEAF 717

As expected Tesla US sales are down as they start shipping a lot of cars overseas.

And their more detailed information: January 2019 U.S. Plug-In EV Sales Report Card

 

[anthonyj]

Buy Facebook and Tesla stock for the long haul

Love your name

 

[Toolsmack]

I took one for the team and checked out what Mark Spiegel is tweety-birding about this AM.

'Tezzla' isn't generating cash and is out of money: CrowPointPartners on Twitter
Demand cliff confirmed (Jan deliveries of the 3 are lower than Dec): TeslaCharts on Twitter
Discount InsideEVs numbers heavily (just prior to retweeting InsideEVs numbers as apparently trustworthy enough to illustrate the alleged demand cliff: Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
'Libruls R Dum: Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
Retweet of contrast between sales growth and SG&A contraction, and how this relates to customer service terribility (hey, he accidentally got one right!): Pivotal Capital on Twitter
Mark has a new policy of blocking 'teslemmings' who post 'inanities' at him (no word on when he'll self-block for extreme inanity): Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

That takes us back one hour from present. So basically, still a denial of reality, internally-inconsistent claims, inability to abstain from including playground insults, and general tomfoolery.

That crowpoint tweetstorm and the teslacharts tweets with replies are actually funny to read! They can’t believe this report hasn’t cratered the stock

 

[MarcusMaximus]

InsideEVs has released their initial US sales numbers: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

2019 U.S. EV SALES JAN
Tesla Model 3* 6500
Honda Clarity PHEV* 1240
Toyota Prius Prime 1123
Tesla Model X* 950
Chevrolet Bolt EV* 925
Tesla Model S* 875
Ford Fusion Energi* 725
Nissan LEAF 717

As expected Tesla US sales are down as they start shipping a lot of cars overseas.

And their more detailed information: January 2019 U.S. Plug-In EV Sales Report Card

6500? I thought they weren’t selling any and had 6800 they just couldn’t get rid of in the US...

 

[mongo]

InsideEVs has released their initial US sales numbers: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

2019 U.S. EV SALES JAN
Tesla Model 3* 6500
Honda Clarity PHEV* 1240
Toyota Prius Prime 1123
Tesla Model X* 950
Chevrolet Bolt EV* 925
Tesla Model S* 875
Ford Fusion Energi* 725
Nissan LEAF 717

As expected Tesla US sales are down as they start shipping a lot of cars overseas.

When down is 5x the closest competitor, you're still doing good....
When down is within 55 units of the next 7 vehicles combined, you're Crackerjack!

 

[printf42]

OT

Makes sense. We got our van at a reasonable price because the (Chinese) family purchased it for the sole purpose of the parents coming to the US to visit and the van was for spaciousness.

And the purpose of the visit was to tell them to come home, hence the turn around sale of the newly purchased van.

But no Tesla is a chauffeur vehicle, they just aren't (although they are very surprisingly roomy).

Another hard to believe fact is, a large portion of 50+ yr old Chinese don’t have drivers license and never learned how to drive.

Family car is a new concept to Chinese, if you are interested in the ideal layout for Chinese family car, NIO ES8 nailed it:
NIO - Home
Not to say how the car is overall, but the layout shows they truly understand Chinese customers.

Model X can be a great Chinese family car, but it’s too expensive.

Hope Model Y takes enough design input from China team, because if it’s done right, it would be huge in Chinese market alone.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Demand cliff confirmed (Jan deliveries of the 3 are lower than Dec): TeslaCharts on Twitter

No way!
I thought Mr. Chards was going to delete his Twitter account if Tesla showed GAAP profit two quarters in a row.

 

[brian45011]

As discussed a couple of days ago, in most energy markets big industrial/commercial users of electricity do not just pay for the amount of energy they use, but primarily for the peak capacity they allocate.

Utility regulators and reliability councils require utilities under their purview to maintain levels of excess (aka reserve) capacity. That excess capacity is not "allocated" per se, but the expense of maintaining reserve capacities is recovered from Commercial and Industrial ratepayers via the Demand charge:

"Demand charges are based on the peak electricity usage of a customer during a billing period. This peak is typically measured on a 15-minute interval; for a given 15-minute interval, the measured demand can be calculated as:

Demand (kW) = Energy consumed in the 15-minute interval (kWh) / 0.25 hours

The “high water mark” for electricity usage sets the demand charge for an entire billing period"

What are demand charges? - Stem | Operating the world's smartest energy storage network
​

System operators (Utility and ISOs) manage sophisticated control centers to match available generation with instantaneous loads. Using PowerPacks/MegaPacks at Superchargers will definitely reduce Demand charges, but optimizing those benefits will require knowledgeable planning (or good guessing) as to when most of those highest demand 15 minutes intervals are most likely to occur each month at each SC site to be sure the energy will be available in the PowerPacks/MegaPacks when the load peaks. Time of Use (TOU) pricing of Demand charges adds to the complexity.

 

[pdwitt]

Since service was a big topic heading into ER, I thought I would share my experience. 12K miles on MS. Annual service per service plan. I live 120 miles away, so scheduled and rescheduled a couple of times via app and email without problem. Spoke on phone with a rep about possibility of mobile service handling annual checkup. Was told that was possible by a service rep via phone in December, but that it would need to be after EOQ. Scheduled again for today via app with note attached requesting mobile service. Received an email within a day or two of scheduling that mobile service was not available for annuals. I have no problem with that (although I expect that will be coming in the future). Communication was timely and on point.

Actual service experience was flawless. They knew it was me as soon as I pulled up (due to geo-fence). Since I came from 120 miles, put car on supercharger to save me a stop. Washed car. Timely finish.

I suspect the center is less busy right now due to M3 deliveries heading overseas (a thought for those of you scheduling non-emergent service - pick one of the first 2 months in the quarter). Spoke with some of the reps and they confirmed that EOQ is a zoo.

Point of the long note - my communication was great and service when delivered as intended is 100% better than any I've experienced in an ICE car, including several Sewell Lexus appointments. I know there are issues, and the squeaky wheel gets the grease, but my experience was exceptional.

I have had four or five annual inspections done by mobile service in Tulsa, OK. Surprised they would not allow it for you.

 

[EVNow]

Normal sedan design allocates more space for the front seats than the back seats, its just the way it is. Tall people are generally restricted to front seat riding because of this. But if you are rich and want to be driven around by someone else, you want the back to be spacious. I get that. But it is not normal design, and the entire premise is luxury which suggests to me that if Tesla were to introduce a long wheel base version the model S would be the logical choice to start with.

May be not normal in the west, but it is normal in China (and India). Designers need to understand that "normal" is a cultural construct - not an absolute one.

 

[EVNow]

InsideEVs has released their initial US sales numbers: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

2019 U.S. EV SALES JAN
Tesla Model 3* 6500
Honda Clarity PHEV* 1240
Toyota Prius Prime 1123
Tesla Model X* 950
Chevrolet Bolt EV* 925
Tesla Model S* 875
Ford Fusion Energi* 725
Nissan LEAF 717

As expected Tesla US sales are down as they start shipping a lot of cars overseas.

And their more detailed information: January 2019 U.S. Plug-In EV Sales Report Card

This shows Tesla will run out of 3s to sell in US by March. They will start making US 3s - and selling them in March.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Also: "Income attributable to non-controlling interests impacted our income statement negatively by $71 million in Q4. The asset backed securitization (ABS) of auto leases completed in Q4 resulted in a change of ownership structure of those leased vehicles. This required a non-cash charge of $54 million attributable to non-controlling interests"

As a general rule, the seller of the leases will need to contribute around 5% of the balance of those leases for each deal they do. We should expect similar costs each time Tesla issues a new securitisation. It's not a real cost though and the cash will come back by the time the securitisation is finished.

 

[lklundin]

Can smarter people than me confirm this?


8h8 hours ago
Since you’re short, I feel obligated to let you know that Tesla could lose $450M this quarter and all they have to do is earn $1 GAAP profit in Q2 and they’re in the S&P 500. They already guided break even this quarter, so, best of luck, I guess.

Alter Viggo on Twitter

I was about to when I realized I didn't qualify...

Btw, Alter Viggo tweets above with a short that asks how S & P 500 inclusion may be relevant to TSLA. Very short shorts.

 

[gora321]

StatsTesla on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

This shows Tesla will run out of 3s to sell in US by March. They will start making US 3s - and selling them in March.

Much sooner. They have to maintain a reasonable diversity in configs, and ideally regional diversity as well.

They need to max out overseas shipments, especially to China - but not at the expense of needlessly drying up US sales.

 

[mongo]

Utility regulators and reliability councils require utilities under their purview to maintain levels of excess (aka reserve) capacity. That excess capacity is not "allocated" per se, but the expense of maintaining reserve capacities is recovered from Commercial and Industrial ratepayers via the Demand charge:

"Demand charges are based on the peak electricity usage of a customer during a billing period. This peak is typically measured on a 15-minute interval; for a given 15-minute interval, the measured demand can be calculated as:

Demand (kW) = Energy consumed in the 15-minute interval (kWh) / 0.25 hours

The “high water mark” for electricity usage sets the demand charge for an entire billing period"

What are demand charges? - Stem | Operating the world's smartest energy storage network
​

System operators (Utility and ISOs) manage sophisticated control centers to match available generation with instantaneous loads. Using PowerPacks/MegaPacks at Superchargers will definitely reduce Demand charges, but optimizing those benefits will require knowledgeable planning (or good guessing) as to when most of those highest demand 15 minutes intervals are most likely to occur each month at each SC site to be sure the energy will be available in the PowerPacks/MegaPacks when the load peaks. Time of Use (TOU) pricing of Demand charges adds to the complexity.

Ignoring time of use plans:
If usage > demand max target, discharge on site battery
If usage < demand max target, charge on site battery
If usage > demand max target and on site battery is providing maximum power (or depleted), reduce vehicle charging rate.