Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

True, but it's a small minority actually, the last data I saw was that less than 5% of the charging sessions are not at home?

This is why both figures are displayed on Tesla's website: full cost and estimated savings.

That is a self selected group. A group where buying an EV makes.

That is of people actually buying EVs or Teslas.

Not the wider new car buying public.

Tesla repeatedly says the competition is ICEv and potential customers are all new car buyers.

Not just current EV customers or homeowners with good electric rates.

 

[RobStark]

Exactly too many outfits nearly ruined or wrecked because the captain was more worried about share price ( and loss of face? ) and keeping shareholders and bankers happy than concentrating on business and it's growth. Too many parasites feeding on Tesla whilst contributing nothing to the point of seeing it ruined, as long as there's a dollar left in it for them, if longs can go together better private.

Good corporate stewardship is neither being a slave to Wallstreet shorttermism nor not giving a *sugar* of about the share price, about getting included in indexes that increases the pool of investors, and releasing information at times which maximizes benefits to people shorting your stock.

 

[lklundin]

I disagree, because actually the large majority of drivers that drive average mileage will be able to realize those savings, with the exception of a few places with mispriced electricity. We also know that Tesla owners tend to increase the mileage they are driving, because the car is fun and the fuel costs are much lower.

So this is not BS, at all: a $43k cost is only $43k if we ignore absolutely every other cost that comes after buying the car. Making buyers aware of the significantly lower total cost of ownership of EVs is an important part of the messaging.

Note how distorted and dishonest advertised ICE fuel use costs are already: if you've ever driven ICE cars that have a chance to compare to Tesla cars in terms of acceleration you'll know that actual ICE fuel use is often much higher than the EPA fuel economy estimates.

Factors the EPA fuel economy figures to not include:

• with a Tesla car the stop-and-go penalty in heavy traffic is much lower,
• with a Tesla car the accelerate/decelerate dynamic driving penalty is much lower as well,
• with a Tesla car the idling/waiting fuel use is much lower as well,
• with a Tesla car the efficiency of air-conditioning is much better, because it doesn't have to be driven by an inefficient engine.

(Also, as Elon just tweeted in a followup, savings are much higher in certain states - I suspect Tesla is estimating these conservatively.)

I could well imagine that the way Tesla present these projected savings could cause problems with consumer protection regulators in certain European countries.

I mean, when you configure your Model 3, the price incl. the projected savings is presented in a manner that makes it non-trivial to see what exactly will be the actual amount of money to pay upon delivery. Added to that is the lack of clarity of exactly how government subsidies are including in these prices.

I believe I have read everything incl. the small print, yet I cannot see any specification of the actual amount to pay upon delivery for a given configuration. This important amount is different both from the price with and without projected savings (due to the 1K € reservation payment and the 2K € order pre-payment) - and possibly also impacted by the procedure during which any government subsidies are actually realized. Tesla has (naturally) fully deducted any such subsidies from their listed prices, but it is not clear how or when the buyer actually realizes any such subsidy.

This is a backlash that is waiting to happen.

 

[erha]

Anybody know how model 3s are transported to Norway? I still haven’t seen a ship heading for Drammen, Norway? Do they import them through Zeebrugge?

 

[schonelucht]

Glovis Captain unloaded 1400 Model 3 and 350 model S. Information according to harbour master of Zeebrugge. First deliveries start this evening from 1800 in Zeebrugge. Many customers are now scrambling to get their tags ASAP since original notice from Tesla was earliest delivery from 15/2 onwards.

 

[schonelucht]

The unloading of 350 Model S is really surprising. The only thing I can think of is that those are in transit to Switzerland (outside EU so not subject to the same tariffs).

 

[sweter]

Glovis Captain unloaded 1400 Model 3 and 350 model S. Information according to harbour master of Zeebrugge. First deliveries start this evening from 1800 in Zeebrugge. Many customers are now scrambling to get their tags ASAP since original notice from Tesla was earliest delivery from 15/2 onwards.

Well, this is... disappointing. Given that this number should cover period of 2nd Jan - 11th Jan, so almost total of 10k supposed production, it might mean that Tesla only produces EU for ~2 days and then switches back to US (or maybe 1 more day of Chinese) and intends to keep constant flow of international orders instead of quarterly pushes. But to cover whole supposed demand (~20k) in Europe this quarter they better increase the numbers they're shipping...

And that would mean expected US sales of ~40k (+ 20k to EU + 5k to China (total guess) = 65k total production). Might explain the price drop too.

 

[FS_FRA]

@avoigt
@FactChecking
@RobStark

Of course the information on the website is correct and it's transparent there. And it's great the Elon responds accordingly.

But:

My issue is the way the message is communicated/tweeted (to the general public). It's like advertising that requires you to read the fine-print. The message is not only read in the US. It is read globally. The $8K saving does not apply globally. The cost of the car does (at the localised price)....
I would prefer to be told the car is $42K (because that is what I actually have to wire to Tesla), but if I meet appropriate requirements, have an expensive gasguzzler, etc. I can save $8K.

Cost: $42K (pay Tesla)
Potential saving: >$8K (in your pocket)

But, I guess this is a "agree to disagree" topic, so I'll leave it at that.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Why is anyone surprised by this small M3 price cut? Tesla’s long standing business plan is to reduce the base price to $35k. To do that and sustain margins requires a long slog of cost cutting and efficiency improvements and scale. Rather than waiting to make a big jump down to $35k, Tesla is gradually reducing the lowest price version as it continues to lower its costs. They achieve the gradual price floor reduction by periodically reconfiguring the car offering (e.g. introducing MR) and small periodic price cuts. I expect over the course of this year the lowest price M3 will drop every few months until it finally hits 35k.

Yes, when you're supply constrained and demand is off the hook, surely a price cut is the obvious solution that would occur to any smart businessperson.

 

[Electrifying]

Well, this is... disappointing. Given that this number should cover period of 2nd Jan - 11th Jan, so almost total of 10k supposed production, it might mean that Tesla only produces EU for ~2 days and then switches back to US ...

And that would mean expected US sales of ~40k (+ 20k to EU + 5k to China (total guess) = 65k total production). Might explain the price drop too.

Glovis Captain next is going to BREMERHAVEN in Germany. It’s total capacity is 3000+. So there could be 2000 cars remaining.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The EV transition is accelerating & ICE car sales are collapsing.

Jan-19

• Norway: Pure EV sales +60%, PHEVs -17%, ICEs -23%. EVs 52% market share.
• Sweden: EVs +53%, ICEs -16%. EVs 13% share.
• Germany: Pure EVs +68%, PHEV -26%, ICE -8%. EVs 2.5% share.
• Spain: EVs +52%. EVs 1.1% share.

Dec-18

• China: EV sales +62%, ICEs -22%. EVs 7.2% market share.
• Europe: Pure EVs +70%, PHEVs -20%. EVs 3.9% share.
• US: EVs +90%. EVs 3.1% share.
• Holland: EVs 31% share.

Source:
Germany - https://www.kba.de/
Norway - Bilsalget 2019
China - China’s new energy PV wholesale volume in 2018 shoots up 83% year on year
Sweden, Spain, Europe, US from Jose Pontes here - http://ev-sales.blogspot.com

 

[EinSV]

I disagree, because actually the large majority of drivers that drive average mileage will be able to realize those savings, with the exception of a few places with mispriced electricity. We also know that Tesla owners tend to increase the mileage they are driving, because the car is fun and the fuel costs are much lower.

So this is not BS, at all: a $43k cost is only $43k if we ignore absolutely every other cost that comes after buying the car. Making buyers aware of the significantly lower total cost of ownership of EVs is an important part of the messaging.

I completely agree with this. In making a large purchase, CFOs or other financially sophisticated buyers would not just consider upfront costs of purchase, but all costs of ownership, including fuel, maintenance etc.

Consumer Reports, Intellichoice, Edmunds and others have various methods of trying to estimate true cost of ownership over a period of years of ownership and have for years have encouraged car owners to be smarter consumers and look beyond just the upfront cost of a car.

Reduced fuel savings for the vast majority of owners is an important benefit of EV ownership. Using an average figure while providing the actual up-front cost is a reasonable way to do it.

Consumers tend to be terrible at factoring in long-term costs, to their own detriment. Tesla's average fuel cost savings figures may be rough numbers, but they are fair and a better starting point for consumers making a buying decision than list price alone.

IMO Tesla would be foolish not to highlight this huge cost savings for the vast majority of consumers, and wouldn't be doing consumers any favors by doing so.

 

[bhtooefr]

Actually Mercedes-Benz has been in the lower priced vehicles for decades:
The new A-Class
BMW 1-series also is in some markets but not others:
Connected to perform. Experience the BMW 1 Series with the connectivity of tomorrow.

Both of these compete directly with similarly positioned vehicles from Japanese and Korean producers.

What do they have below the A-Class and 1-series, though? I mean, yes, there's the Smart ForFour and the Mini One, but... in a discussion of moving further downmarket, well, there's moving below that.

And, my understanding is that those cars are still a fair bit more expensive than, say, a Auris/Corolla, Civic, Mazda3, i30 (Elantra GT in the US), or Ceed (related to the Forte in the US). UK A-Class starts at £23,075, UK 1-series starts at £23,050, whereas the outgoing Auris is £20,670, the Civic is £19,100, the Mazda3 is £20,595, the i30 is £17,125, and the Ceed is £18,295.

As for your slightly confused description of Skoda, Audi and VW brands you did skip Seat.

Yeah, I did leave off SEAT, but my understanding was that they were a very similar tier to Skoda, but with sales concentrated on Spain.

Uh oh, a real Tesla killer has arrived!

Tesla killer: powered by Tesla. (Maxwell.)

 

[STARR X]

Concerning pricing, I think Tesla knows exactly what they are doing. They managed to hit 200,000 cars sold in the USA during the time period they wanted. They have been saying for a while that the $35,000 Model 3 will be available around the middle of 2019. As the tax credit start to winds down, the $35,000.00 will become available. To think this is a lucky coincidence does not give Tesla any credit. When leasing is available has already been planned too. Everyone is being played by Tesla. Both longs & shorts.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Well, this is... disappointing. Given that this number should cover period of 2nd Jan - 11th Jan, so almost total of 10k supposed production, it might mean that Tesla only produces EU for ~2 days and then switches back to US (or maybe 1 more day of Chinese) and intends to keep constant flow of international orders instead of quarterly pushes. But to cover whole supposed demand (~20k) in Europe this quarter they better increase the numbers they're shipping...

And that would mean expected US sales of ~40k (+ 20k to EU + 5k to China (total guess) = 65k total production). Might explain the price drop too.

This was just the first boat. At least 4 others are on their way to Europe or being loaded. And it's not like Tesla can afford to completely cut off the US market for 1 or 2 months.

 

[gringotuanis]

Johnson is really unlucky with her trading plan. Second month in a row that she's executing options for 1700 shares and selling the stock right away for a gain of literally pennies per share. Personally not so familiar with how these pre-approved trading plans work. Can't you set a limit price under which you will not convert? Her option purchase price is $319.57 and only expire in 2024. Shorter termed calls at that price are already worth $88 so any exercise price set today below $400 seems foolish. What do I miss?

I doubt they have that much flexibility as they set these redemptions up far in advance if you read the fine print they're on a set schedule. For insider trading reasons they have a set redemption schedule and are administered by an attorney it seems...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tanks Elon price cut of Model 3 = Big dip on TSLA$

Why would they care about stock price? Tesla has no obligation to option traders or short term traders. They only care about long term stock holders (real investors and employees) and for them it only matters what the SP will be in, say, 2025 or 2028. If a price reduction helps Tesla in the long run, then that should be their only consideration.

 

[gringotuanis]

Model 3 now $35K....

Elon just tweeted.

“.....Model 3 starting cost now ~$35k (after ~$8k of credits & fuel savings)....”

.....I just wish Tesla would stop the “after credits and fuel saving” BS. There is a serious need for honesty in advertising: not all potential buyers can realise that saving. A car that costs $43k cost $43k, and not $35k.


A buyer that can then realise $8k saving: great for you!

It's a little bit of both. I think Tesla needs and should highlight the savings on fuel an maintenance as it is an important factor that some ppl may miss. However, the way they display it on the website seems just somewhat misleading. I'm sure 99 percent of ppl realize that's not the actual cost but it leaves that impression like you're dealing with a shady car dealer. I think Tesla website could be improved to show it in a better manner. Leaves bad taste.

 

[gora321]

Steve Jobs‏ @tesla_truth
Price of Model 3 in Colorado is less than $30k

11:17 PM - 5 Feb 2019

Allen Herzberg‏ @allen_allenh3 4h4 hours ago
42,900-3,750 fed tax credit-5,000 CO tax credit-4,300 6yr gas savings estimate

Steve Jobs‏ @tesla_truth 47m47 minutes ago
yes california gives you an extra $2500

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Everyone is being played by Tesla. Both longs & shorts.

Hope not. Musk has enough SEC issues already.