Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[copyhacker]

You guys have gone with the "demand curve" argument for every single Model Tesla has put out, and been wrong every time. Has it never occurred to you that it's flawed?

Prediction: you won't get an honest, open-minded answer

So many short arguments go against the available evidence that I keep wondering what their first principles are. So far I've come up with:

• Elon is evil
• It's impossible for a startup to beat Big Auto at their game
• EVs are inherently undesirable

Anything else?

 

[Huskyf]

No I thing is Trump with China because this moning NIO +2.30% now 0.75% GM +1.5% this morning now -0.20%
It's not only Telsa...Wait and see !

All indices DIP DowJones this m,orning +200 points now +60 Nasdaq enter to negative and SP 500 DIP also

 

[Unpilot]

Not sure why everyone doesn't have CuriousSunbird under Ignore at this point. It's very obvious what his agenda has been for the past year.

He is just like the other "birds" most of whom I have on ignore. I left him off because he seems to have "evolved" a bit.
Not quite as purely negative. Quick to point out any perceived weakness in Tesla shows his/her true colors however.
And of course a quick rebuttal of criticism with "hey let's all have fun" post.

 

[Hogfighter]

So many short arguments go against the available evidence that I keep wondering what their first principles are. So far I've come up with:

• Elon is evil
• It's impossible for a startup to beat Big Auto at their game
• EVs are inherently undesirable

Anything else?

• Model 3 is a flash in the pan, won’t make $ on SR version, no one will want the LR/P versions after initial sales to crazy treehuggers
• S/X sales will slow when tax credits expire

 

[EVNow]

We think its just the Rivian rumour. But who bloody knows these days? :Þ

I could be a number of things. But in general I think it is to do with whether shorts/bears are feeling emboldened or not. We have seen them using any kind of vaguely bearish news about Tesla to push the price down by multiple percentage points. Since the bots sell based on Nasdaq (at the moment whether its going up or down) - shorts can sell at opportune moments to pull down the stock a lot more than indices.

ps : @AlexP is on to something. Apparently enough people think that 306 "gap" needs to be covered - and then we see a reversal. But, of course we see strong of reversal at 308 & 309 too earlier today.

 

[Fact Checking]

So many short arguments go against the available evidence that I keep wondering what their first principles are. So far I've come up with:

• Elon is evil
• It's impossible for a startup to beat Big Auto at their game
• EVs are inherently undesirable

Anything else?

While there's some honest Tesla bears (admittedly there's a lot fewer of them left, and they became a lot more silent after Q3 and Q4), the first principles of the $TSLAQ ringleaders is to lie about Tesla and see what sticks.

They rely on the asymmetry that a constant stream of lies takes a lot more effort to debunk than to generate, and that in today's unauthenticated media and social networking landscape the lies are hard to distinguish from genuine concern and skepticism.

I believe Mark BS. even admitted to it at a point, that he'd make up lies on Twitter to hurt Tesla demand.

There's no coherent "short thesis" left, it's all deceit and fraud.

 

[ggr]

Absolutely nothing. Just another disappointing day in being a Tesla shareholder.

Yes, when the volume is this low, manipulation becomes easy, and the price always drifts down.

 

[ggr]

He is just like the other "birds" most of whom I have on ignore. I left him off because he seems to have "evolved" a bit.
Not quite as purely negative. Quick to point out any perceived weakness in Tesla shows his/her true colors however.
And of course a quick rebuttal of criticism with "hey let's all have fun" post.

There is no need to discuss that user for a while.

 

[mutle]

Anyone else notice the Tesla.com below the plate? Tesla working to get free advertising in Germany? I've never seen a stock car sold in this manner before.

It’s pretty normal in Germany and most of Europe. Most cars have some information on the dealer printed on it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

ps : Ofcourse, the selling could be mainly shorts + bots who just follow the stock movement.

Plus shorts are manipulating the bots. That's why there was a big push at the end of yesterday's session to make sure the SP closed down. Bot's respond mainly to technicals, which strip out huge swaths of information in a terse summary, thus are vunerable to manipulations.

 

[anthonyj]

Max Pain 312.5

Explains why we seem to end up around 312.xx a number of days in the past ? Cause or Effect ?

looking at the charts, it’s extremely rare to see a gap up unfilled within a week. Technical traders and algos take note of that. Also, people are too afraid to buy at these levels since a retest of $250-280 is almost certain with some bad news. That’s where weak longs on margin sell to the big boys. I don’t think we will see $250 again tho, I think some good news is coming soon. Elon has been suspiciously quiet...

 

[Tenable]

There is no need to discuss that user for a while.

I've had this fellow on ignore for so long I forgot that he exists. Since I don't really believe most of these guys are being paid you have to admire his persistence if nothing else.

 

[Tenable]

It’s pretty normal in Germany and most of Europe. Most cars have some information on the dealer printed on it.

Its entirely standard in the US as well. Almost every car on the road has some ugly dealership promotion attached to it. Tesla has always been the exception here. Which is why I am so surprised.

 

[copyhacker]

• Model 3 is a flash in the pan, won’t make $ on SR version, no one will want the LR/P versions after initial sales to crazy treehuggers
• S/X sales will slow when tax credits expire

These, I think, proceed from the "EVs are inherently undesirable" first principle.

the first principles of the $TSLAQ ringleaders is to lie about Tesla and see what sticks.
There's no coherent "short thesis" left, it's all deceit and fraud.

Well, that's a strategy but not a core belief. I suppose you could say that many of the big $TSLAQs see Tesla as a threat to the status quo that must be vanquished. So maybe we add to the list "Fossil fuels are superior".

Either you subscribe to one or more of those core beliefs and hang all your bear theses on them, or you're intellectually dishonest (and/or lazy) and stand to gain materially from Tesla's demise.

 

[Chop110]

Darn bounce. I was hoping to buy more shares in the sub 300s.

 

[KarenRei]

Darn bounce. I was hoping to buy more shares in the sub 300s.

I really this close to buying back some 18 Aug $500s that I'd previously sold as part of a spread, at a huge discount :Þ But they never hit my bid. I don't think the SP would even have had to gone any lower, if it had just held in the $305s for long enough they probably would have been re-bought.

 

[Thumper]

I am amused to see the argument that it is too hard to start a new car brand being dragged out here on this forum to be used against Rivian. It was the argument that early shorts used blindly against Tesla. Rivian may or may not make it, but it has what I consider a very saleable product, if the price is right, and with enough financing in a timely manner it is plausible that it could succeed and survive. There is plenty of room in the market for more EV players. Time will tell.

 

[MartinAustin]

Is the "ValueAnalyst" on SA a bear or a bull?

They just published a blog entry on TSLA that would appear to be fact-based and positive re: declining short interest.

 

[EVNow]

While there's some honest Tesla bears (admittedly there's a lot fewer of them left, and they became a lot more silent after Q3 and Q4), the first principles of the $TSLAQ ringleaders is to lie about Tesla and see what sticks.

Its the same as Climate Change Deniers.

If you start with the premise that climate change is a Chinese created hoax and a worldwide conspiracy - everything flows from that. Any bearish Tesla news would support their thesis and everything else can be explained by resorting to "fraud" hypothesis.

Ofcourse, there are also those who think a startup can't beat giant legacy companies (though Tesla doesn't have to beat any of them in volume to be a strong profitable car maker in the decades to come). Those guys are also skeptical that EVs will gain any kind of major market share within the next decade.

 

[Joe F]

OMG, that book will be epic FUD. I wonder if there will be a single page that doesn’t contain an outright lie, omission or falsehood?

This from the laughable description:

"Tesla’s commitment to innovation has led it to reject the careful, zero-defects approach of other car manufacturers, even as it struggles to mass-produce cars reliably, and with minimal defects."

News today from one of those zero-defects "other" manufactures:

"12:06 PM EST, 02/13/2019(MT Newswires) -- Ford Motor Company(F)has issued two safety recalls on certain F-150 pickup trucks and Lincoln Continentals and a safety compliance recall for the 2019 Ford Mustang, Lincoln Nautilus and Lincoln Navigator."

What a joke this guy is. SMH