Reciprocity
Active Member
Elon is the longest tenured CEO of a US auto maker. If other autos CEOs keep going to jail it might quickly become the longest in the world.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Elon is the longest tenured CEO of a US auto maker. If other autos CEOs keep going to jail it might quickly become the longest in the world.
@Carl Raymond
you folks in Australia are amazing how fast you are going renewable and VPP's and EV's.
Yahooo! WhooHoo!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Elon preparing to ensure he can sell the final Q1 week's worth of production direct from Freemont?
MODERATOR ANNOUNCEMENT:Tasha Keeney @TashaARK
We think many auto companies are on their way to bankruptcy in the next decade. And its not going to be because they miss monthly production targets. It will be because they didn't invest in autonomous and missed the boat on a $2 trillion natural monopoly market.
2:10 PM - 19 Feb 2019
Tasha Keeney on Twitter
This is a discussion forum. It is NOT a Twitter re-broadcast site; it is NOT a reflecting board for news feeds.
You are WELCOME and ENCOURAGED to bring to discussion here items of an appropriate nature that you have found elsewhere. The ONLY way to do that is to present your own opinions of that which you found relevant to share.
Summary: Zero tolerance from now on of the kind of cut-and-paste shown above; zero tolerance for dumping some news feed’s headline without providing your reasons for bringing it to this forum.
If you’re so lazy that you can’t abide by these rules, you’re welcome to exercise your laziness elsewhere.
~Vetinari~
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Everyone dies, none of them care after that.
Hopefully they prepare Lease options for Germany ASAP!!
Because there is an incentive and a huge tax reducing for employes driving company EVs cars that will run out quick. And most company cars are leased!
Tesla shouldn’t leave this field to others.
Bears seem to think that pulling demand levers such as starting to ship to more countries or adding financing options is a proof of lack of demand and thus bad for business. But imo it seems pretty obv that pulling the demand lever is good for business and why not pull all of them as soon as you can and shift the mix to higher margin cars. The demand was never infinite at P3D and the 500k Model 3 per year figure was always supposed to be a mix of all combinations from standard range to P3D.
Not worried for TSLA at all at this moment. The company is making 2-8B/year in FCF, making them worth their current valuation with a freeroll of 10-20% chance that they take a 10-20% market share of a $7T ride sharing market. Just that is worth 1-4x their current market cap. And then their is the Model Y, Pickup, GF3, Semi, Storage, Solar etc that has a nonzero change of becoming profitable also.
Not worried for TSLA at all at this moment. The company is making 2-8B/year in FCF, making them worth their current valuation with a freeroll of 10-20% chance that they take a 10-20% market share of a $7T ride sharing market. Just that is worth 1-4x their current market cap. And then their is the Model Y, Pickup, GF3, Semi, Storage, Solar etc that has a nonzero change of becoming profitable also.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Speculation time
In Maxwell's presentation on their technology and it's breakthrough, the mention that they had to been working with a un-named partner over the past year on the tech. If that partner was Tesla, maybe Tesla was validating the technology and manufacturing claims/goals and now that hey did validate the tech, they decided to buy Maxwell outright. In that scenario, I could see them being to implement tech by the end of 2019/early 2020.
This is my speculation as well. It's also based on what Elon has been saying about timing on certain things, like $100/KWh packs and 0 Cobalt. Though dry electrode doesn't have anything to do with Cobalt, the process allows for a thicker more suitable cathode which can be traded for more silicon and other materials in the anode to displace Cobalt.
My new theory is this.. Elon has been almost belligerent when answering the 2170 in S/X question. My new theory is that this is because dry cathode could be used to enhance 18650 first allowing them to extend the useful life of those pack designs. Less cooling required and higher density cells due to thicker cathode could allow for 110kwh or greater pack capacity and higher sustained charge rates. At 120KWh (+5KWh buffer) and 2c you would hit Elon's stated Target of 250KWh SC3. 2c to 80% sustained would be a game changer when you have 400mi of range or mega charging a semi.. more on that:
This could also explain a lot about defying physics with the semi which is my second theory. The first cells could be 18650 or 2170 for semi. For two reasons.. dry electrode allows more charge cycles while being way more energy dense vs NMC 811. The competition assumed NMC, Tesla will deliver NCA cells with 2500+ cycles which is good for 10 years and over a million miles. The second reason is higher density = more range while carrying heavier loads. This is why Daimler thinks Tesla is defying physics and Elon says the final specs of the semi will be better then what they have already stated.
Am I crazy or on to something?
mutle
Member
I'm in a similar situation (and also one of the people closely following that forum for more information). Ordered on Dec 21st, invoice #29 (Performance Model 3). Yet still no progress since the early January call telling me I'm among the first deliveries. Some much later orders (late January) have VINs and in some cases even delivered. Today I was told my car is on the 6th ship (though the name they told me doesn't match any of the boats going to Europe), the first time they even told me there is a car for me. Luckily I didn't sell my old car yet.
This is quite frustrating, as there is seemingly no communication and it seems like the EU Tesla staff is at the mercy of some automated processes somewhere in Fremont with no visibility. Some reports were saying that Tesla's system was flagging some customer orders as having some information missing, but this was not visible to the customer, and instead of contacting the customer to request the information the orders were silently put on hold. I've seen similar reports from Norway on Twitter as well, so it's not just a problem with Tesla in Germany.
I will probably not waste another thought on this once I sit in and drive my car, but at the moment it's leaving quite a bad taste. Less dedicated customers than the first months of orders probably won't be as patient.
However, I think it's quite obvious from all these reports and issues that demand is great even with only AWD and Performance available for order. In Germany AWD is not a common feature, so LR-RWD and MR-RWD will produce even more demand.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Tanking due to:
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC.8:00 AM ET 2/20/2019
Tesla Inc.(TSLA)is losing its general counsel two months after hiring him, replacing the veteran trial lawyer with a longtime insider who helped the electric car company navigate some of its biggest legal issues.
Dane Butswinkasis leaving Tesla to return to his law firm Williams & Connolly, where he had spent almost 30 years before being named as the auto maker's general counsel in December, the company confirmed on Wednesday.
EDIT: Added:
Mr. Butswinkas said in a statement he looks forward to returning to Washingtonto continue his work with Tesla in an outside counsel role, as in the past. People familiar with the matter said he found that Tesla wasn't the right cultural fit.
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC.8:00 AM ET 2/20/2019
Tesla Inc.(TSLA)is losing its general counsel two months after hiring him, replacing the veteran trial lawyer with a longtime insider who helped the electric car company navigate some of its biggest legal issues.
Dane Butswinkasis leaving Tesla to return to his law firm Williams & Connolly, where he had spent almost 30 years before being named as the auto maker's general counsel in December, the company confirmed on Wednesday.
EDIT: Added:
Mr. Butswinkas said in a statement he looks forward to returning to Washingtonto continue his work with Tesla in an outside counsel role, as in the past. People familiar with the matter said he found that Tesla wasn't the right cultural fit.
MY reveal will be a thing, for sure, it can't come soon enough.
GF3 spitting out cars will be a catalyst.
However, what I personally think we need to get out of the Doldrums, is the $35k base-M3, with all those 100k's of reservations converting to orders, plus the knock-on effect we'll get from there.
Bracing for another down day. Butswinkasis out due to conflict with Elon, I guess. Possibly over the 500k tweet that he had to clarify after? Or am I getting paranoid now?
I had the same thought this morning regarding Maxwelling the 18650s in S/X. Depending on how fast they can improve cell capacity, they might be able to go right to a higher capacity 14 or 15 module pack and remove the front double stack.
However, I think Roadster and Semi do not depend on that tech for feasibility based on calculated volume of the pack.
Here is a thread dedicated to sort of the same topic:
Maxwell batteries in Roadster?
also:
2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]
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Of course it's proof of a lack of demand. No company leases if they can help it. It's time v Tesla on the SR. Bears says I told you so, Tesla won't lower costs and is running out of time. Bulls shrug, they see leasing as a demand lever that Tesla hadn't pulled yet.
The most likely reason that the new GC left after two months is that he quickly realized that his cushy position as senior counsel at a big law firm was orders of magnitude easier than being at the firing line of one of the most volatile companies led by one of the most volatile CEOs.
So I am posting this here mainly because it pisses me off, but also because Tesla may not be monitoring their EU press inboxes that diligently or may not bother to reply to a clarification request from a small EV website like the one I am part time writing for. But maybe they see it here...
There is this Hungarian leasing company called Universal Leasing which has ordered a bunch of Model 3s and has also been importing S & X - with a healthy margin. For the record, there is no official Tesla store/service center in this country.
So this company has been kind of walking the edge in terms of their claims in the past as well when communicating to enthusiasts, but today they launched a media blitz campaign announcing they will be opening the Tesla Store in Budapest very soon and are supported by the DACH area sales team of Tesla. They even created a site for this with a placeholder for now, but the site itself uses what looks like a copy of Tesla`s design. They also claim, that this way they will enable Hungarians take advantage of the local state incentives for Tesla purchases - which we cannot do right now as there is no official store.
As far as I know Tesla never uses re-sellers or franchise partners. Not only that, but doing so in one market would weaken their own position on avoiding this in the USA. And to risk that for such a small market?
To me it is more likely this company is making big claims which are borderline fraudulent. They pretend to be Tesla`s official partner, their official re-seller or as if Tesla gave them the rights to operate the Hungarian store. They have been feeding information like that to EV enthusiast looking to buy a Model 3, but today they have stepped this up to a whole new level. And of course the media ate the whole thing up and most publications carried it on their front page today.
PS: and as for their margin... as per the official net Dutch price of the Model 3 LR AWD and today`s exchange rate plus our lovely 27% VAT, they add about EUR ~3,000 to the price.
There is this Hungarian leasing company called Universal Leasing which has ordered a bunch of Model 3s and has also been importing S & X - with a healthy margin. For the record, there is no official Tesla store/service center in this country.
So this company has been kind of walking the edge in terms of their claims in the past as well when communicating to enthusiasts, but today they launched a media blitz campaign announcing they will be opening the Tesla Store in Budapest very soon and are supported by the DACH area sales team of Tesla. They even created a site for this with a placeholder for now, but the site itself uses what looks like a copy of Tesla`s design. They also claim, that this way they will enable Hungarians take advantage of the local state incentives for Tesla purchases - which we cannot do right now as there is no official store.
As far as I know Tesla never uses re-sellers or franchise partners. Not only that, but doing so in one market would weaken their own position on avoiding this in the USA. And to risk that for such a small market?
To me it is more likely this company is making big claims which are borderline fraudulent. They pretend to be Tesla`s official partner, their official re-seller or as if Tesla gave them the rights to operate the Hungarian store. They have been feeding information like that to EV enthusiast looking to buy a Model 3, but today they have stepped this up to a whole new level. And of course the media ate the whole thing up and most publications carried it on their front page today.
PS: and as for their margin... as per the official net Dutch price of the Model 3 LR AWD and today`s exchange rate plus our lovely 27% VAT, they add about EUR ~3,000 to the price.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
It's not the action of pulling demand levers that is good or bad. It's that Tesla can pull the levers that is good. You can't pull any levers of your GM or BMW and significantly less people want your products, you can't go below 0% net margins even if your a massive, formerly profitable company.
Shorts deduce Tesla must pull levers so it is, the more logical response in a Tesla must be profitable and self finding world is Tesla can pull levers so they are. They are matching demand with production thus pulling just enough levers to meet production. SR is the ultimate demand letter. Leases are the next biggest. Free supercharging is next and so on. We have not seen any of these yet, so Tesla is only barely scratching the surface on demand levers. Having 25% margins helps that a lot.
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