Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Tesla Model 3 Unveiling Announced

Q3 2015 shareholder letter mentioned the 3 being unveiled in March. IIRC we haven't been notified of a Y unveiling in any shareholder letter. Either Tesla wants to really surprise us or Y won't be shown for a long time. I'm thinking November.

 

[neroden]

Oh -- and I really think Tesla's making progress with service, but they still did boneheaded *sugar* on my last service call, emailing when I told them to phone, requiring a second phone call back. They need to seriously focus on communication.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In case you didn't read it (or won't), here are the
Models That Lost CR’s Recommendation:

• Acura RDX
• BMW 5 Series
• Chrysler 300
• Dodge Charger
• Tesla Model 3
• Volkswagen Tiguan

Note that CR mentions the Tesla Model 3 PROMINENTLY in their headline and throughout the lede paragraph, and they don't even mention the other brands other than Acrua. Then, it's over 2/3rd's of the way through the article (well after most people stop reading) that the names of the other affected vehicles are first mentioned.

This is such a clear, blantant click-bait article it is actually laughable. CR has forsaken its already tattered integrity for a few clicks. I wish them well on the garbage dump of history.

Cheers!

 

[Mobius484]

Tesla starts Model 3 delivery in China earlier than expected — Reuters

Not news if you follow our friend Vincent on twitter, or the obsessive nuts on the TMC forum tracking the boats... oh wait

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla starts Model 3 delivery in China earlier than expected — Reuters

Not news if you follow our friend Vincent on twitter, or the obsessive nuts on the TMC forum tracking the boats... oh wait

Wow. Wonder why they are selling them sooner than expected. They must really need the cash before the March 1st bond payments are due! /s

(do I really have to put a /s...)

 

[S3XY]

Wow. Wonder why they are selling them sooner than expected. They must really need the cash before the March 1st bond payments are due! /s

(do I really have to put a /s...)

Do you really have to ask?

 

[neroden]

This is really interesting news. Depending on his or her perspective, it provides each person a set of outcomes that can simultaneously encompass satisfaction, outrage and much in between. One of the questions it raises for me is the possibility of affixing to LG a Restraint of Trade charge. That's a pretty serious illegality in most jurisdictions and it sure smells like that to me.

Does "most jurisdictions" include South Korea? Because I suspect LG is going to get away with it, whether or not it's illegal anywhere. That's what usually happens.

 

[KD2018]

Q3 2015 shareholder letter mentioned the 3 being unveiled in March. IIRC we haven't been notified of a Y unveiling in any shareholder letter. Either Tesla wants to really surprise us or Y won't be shown for a long time. I'm thinking November.

Why pre-announce in shareholder letter and interfere with model 3 sales. They are not going to reveal model Y till they are really prime and ready.

 

[graphite]

I will keep my Consumer Reports subscription. Their reliability surveys were a major influence on me buying Hondas - I had my last one twenty years with few problems, and the only reason I got rid of it was my Model 3 was ready.

My impression is they are well meaning and sincere. There may be some issues with methodology that are especially pronounced in the case of Tesla. Whether toward the good or the bad, it sounds like survey responses are likely more extreme and there may be some built-in biases (intentional or not). Also, the slow ramp (their sample size therefore being relatively small) and iterative nature of Tesla's development is unlike other manufacturers. I expect if these issues are brought up thoughtfully, CR will consider them in kind and seek to improve their processes, as Tesla seeks to improve their own.

I find "people love their cars" and "we had reports of many problems" to not be in conflict with each other. There are definitely cases where I go against CR's advice. This is often around computers or other items where I have my own particular requirements, and I understand that CR's audience is very much middle-of-the-road and subject to different frustrations than I. Tesla has very much had products for early adopters. The Model 3 is an attempt to change that and address a larger market. We have seen the associated growing pains, and while there are elements who pile on and spew FUD and other nonsense, Tesla still can do better, especially for those middle-of-the-road folks who aren't staying up way too late reading enthusiast forums, going to meet-ups, and so on. I like to think they already are doing better, and this will show up in the next cycle of CR's data. I really don't know where else I would go for a truly independent take on product data.

 

[KarenRei]

Seems like a pretty small number to me, only about 2 days of production at 5,500/week run rate. If this is the first delivery to Shanghai, have there already been deliveries to other ports? Tianjin, Ningbo, Guangzhou etc...or is this the first to China? Potential tariff cliff-edge 1-week from today, how many more vessels are lined up to clear customs by then?

People forget that it's not just Model 3s on these ships. There were nearly 2k "Teslas", just like Glovis Captain. 2-3k per ship is typical.

Yes, they've already had one ship reach China already - it went to Tianjin, not Shanghai. The next ship to China, the "solar hybrid" ship Emerald Ace, reaches Tianjin on Sunday. Then the Golden Ray arrives in Shanghai on Thursday. They seem to be alternating between Tianjin and Shanghai, which makes good sense.

 

[Singuy]

I will keep my Consumer Reports subscription. Their reliability surveys were a major influence on me buying Hondas - I had my last one twenty years with few problems, and the only reason I got rid of it was my Model 3 was ready.

My impression is they are well meaning and sincere. There may be some issues with methodology that are especially pronounced in the case of Tesla. Whether toward the good or the bad, it sounds like survey responses are likely more extreme and there may be some built-in biases (intentional or not). Also, the slow ramp (their sample size therefore being relatively small) and iterative nature of Tesla's development is unlike other manufacturers. I expect if these issues are brought up thoughtfully, CR will consider them in kind and seek to improve their processes, as Tesla seeks to improve their own.

I find "people love their cars" and "we had reports of many problems" to not be in conflict with each other. There are definitely cases where I go against CR's advice. This is often around computers or other items where I have my own particular requirements, and I understand that CR's audience is very much middle-of-the-road and subject to different frustrations than I. Tesla has very much had products for early adopters. The Model 3 is an attempt to change that and address a larger market. We have seen the associated growing pains, and while there are elements who pile on and spew FUD and other nonsense, Tesla still can do better, especially for those middle-of-the-road folks who aren't staying up way too late reading enthusiast forums, going to meet-ups, and so on. I like to think they already are doing better, and this will show up in the next cycle of CR's data. I really don't know where else I would go for a truly independent take on product data.

The more I think about, the more insincere CR is. The Model 3 broke their scoring system with a score of 103/100. No car they ever reviewed scored that high. Fit and finish shouldn't be in the category of "reliability", but should be judged in the "customer satisfaction" section. If customers are satisfied with the panel gaps and are happy with their cars, then the gaps are not really a fit and finish issue is it? There's a fine line between "design cue" and "fit and finish". Who to say customers doesn't like panel gaps if they are happy with the look of the car? Now if the gaps are causing leaks, then that's another issue and should be under reliability.

Their rating even admit that the power train is fine...so not recommending the Model 3 right now due to panel gaps is like not recommending the Prius due to ugliness..and its ugliness cause the Prius to be unreliable.

 

[KarenRei]

Grand Venus on its way to Europe (finally!). Glovis Star has immediately taken its place at Pier 80.

 

[SPadival]

• Friendly congresspersons. Those of you in states with sympathetic Senators or Reps - some kind of letter explaining in brief your beef might be able to induce some action. In theory, this is the purview of your Rep, not your Senator, but I can see a situation in which a Senator might be willing to carry the necessary water.

People living in California’s 17th District can contact Rep Ro Khanna. He is a resident of Fremont! So all these shorty shenanigans have a direct impact on his constituents (And he is now Bernie campaign co-chair)

 

[KarenRei]

People living in California’s 17th District can contact Rep Ro Khanna. He is a resident of Fremont! So all these shorty shenanigans have a direct impact on his constituents (And he is now Bernie campaign co-chair)

While people are writing letters, don't forget the SEC. Shorts are writing letters to the SEC about Musk's recent 400k/500k typo, trying to convince them to act. I doubt they're getting many counterpoints, because we're mostly reactionary, not proactive.

Here's their contact info:
SEC.gov | Contacting the SEC

To help light a fire under people, here's an actual short letter to the SEC:

BTW - Aaron Greenspan is the "I'm The Creator Of Facebook" guy.

 

[Tslynk67]

Falcon 9 nailed its landing tonight, however I mentioned in the SpaceX subforum that I would not recommend that rocket because I can see a few blemishes in its paint that will likely need retouching.

F*ck, I missed a launch!!!

 

[KarenRei]

F*ck, I missed a launch!!!

Just don't miss the one on March 2nd (Saturday, a week from tomorrow) - that's going to be the first Crew Dragon launch (unmanned)! Also, at some point in March they're supposed to be doing the second Falcon Heavy launch And a third in April, which will carry a ton of payloads (up to 25 separate satellites - including LightSail 2, which is to be the first spacecraft to use a solar sail to maneuver and raise its orbit; Green Propellant Infusion Mission, which will be testing a less toxic / higher performance spacecraft propellant alternative to hydrazine; a new type of super-small, super-accurate atomic clock for spacecraft; a probe that will test deploying gigantic collapsible antennas in space; and a ton of other things). Then in June we're supposed to get the in-flight abort of Dragon 2, and then in July, the first crewed mission

 

[RobStark]

The more I think about, the more insincere CR is. The Model 3 broke their scoring system with a score of 103/100. No car they ever reviewed scored that high. Fit and finish shouldn't be in the category of "reliability", but should be judged in the "customer satisfaction" section. If customers are satisfied with the panel gaps and are happy with their cars, then the gaps are not really a fit and finish issue is it? There's a fine line between "design cue" and "fit and finish". Who to say customers doesn't like panel gaps if they are happy with the look of the car? Now if the gaps are causing leaks, then that's another issue and should be under reliability.

Their rating even admit that the power train is fine...so not recommending the Model 3 right now due to panel gaps is like not recommending the Prius due to ugliness..and its ugliness cause the Prius to be unreliable.

Model S not Model 3 scored 103/100.

If you have to go to service center to get trim fixed or paint shop to get chips/imperfections repainted then it should very much count in reliability.

Almost all cars have powertrains that don't leave you stranded in first year of ownership.

The score is relative not absolute.

The bar is "better " not "not horrible."

 

[Todd Burch]

CNN has a story about the CR survey. (Not gonna link it). In fact, I’m not going to click it myself.

Guess which car is used for the picture? I’ll give you three chances.

(Hint: it’s not the Acura. Or any of the other non-Teslas.)

I bet that same car is discussed in the majority of the article too...

 

[KarenRei]

Premarket is looking nice so far ($294 / +0,95%).

ED: $295,13 / +1,34%

 

[Tslynk67]

Just don't miss the one on March 2nd (Saturday, a week from tomorrow) - that's going to be the first Crew Dragon launch! Also, at some point in March they're supposed to be doing the second Falcon Heavy launch And a third in April, which will carry a ton of payloads (up to 25 separate satellites - including LightSail 2, which is to be the first spacecraft to use a solar sail to maneuver and raise its orbit; Green Propellant Infusion Mission, which will be testing a less toxic / higher performance spacecraft propellant alternative to hydrazine; a new type of super-small, super-accurate atomic clock for spacecraft; a probe that will test deploying gigantic collapsible antennas in space; and a ton of other things). Then in June we're supposed to get the in-flight abort of Dragon 2, and then in July, the first crewed mission

Well to be fair today's/yesterday's launch was 4AM CET, so I was in the land of Nod...