Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

It is on my list of possibilities. However, I would think he would have to be forced out. In my opinion it would be disastrous for the short term SP. As the largest shareholder why would he want to do that to himself? Who could replace him?

Here’s my list of possibilities:

• Tesla Energy related - solar roof/large battery storage contract
  
  GF4 announcement
  
  HW3 announcement / x-country demo
  
  Joint partnership - Mercedes or fiat/Chrysler
  
  CEO change (like I said it’s on my list of possibilities)
  
  New take private
  
  SpaceX / Tesla merger
  
  Nevada Gigafactory expansion plan

Here’s Adam Jonas’ list:

1. Convertible bond repayment.
2. Model Y unveil.
3. Pickup truck unveil.
4. Strategic partnership.
5. Other: Tesla Semi, update on the China factory, autonomous milestone, charging infrastructure development, new Tesla Roadster...

 

[justobuf]

Although I would be surprised if this were it this lines up best with Elon Tusk and the Elephant. Tesla (Elon) is the elephant sized acquisition. Now what could be the price......... $420.

Whatever it is it has to be some play on an Elephant.

As much as I respect buffet and Munger they just don't get a lot of the big companies right now and admit it. If you can't understand Oracle apple and IBM then they are going to really struggle seeing the value of tesla right now. That being said if I were buffet I would have already taken Tesla private.

 

[Krugerrand]

An acquaintance, who owns a Model 3, thinks the announcement is Elon stepping down as CEO.

Any comments on this possiblity or effect on TSLA if that were to happen?

You need a new acquaintance.

 

[mekberg]

Elon has a 10 year performance package, which requires him to be the CEO or executive Chairman. Now he is not Chairman anymore. Stepping down from CEO post is like zero chance. It's not that Elon personally needs this extra 80~100 billion dollars (yes, I do think in 10~15 years this package will likely worth 80 billion dollars). He does want to use the money to do important things down the road.

If you worry about some bad things happen and fundamentally impact Tesla, just keep in mind the company could be sold for a lot of money. It's not that it just run out of cash and bankrupt. Shorts created that scenario to scare away potential investors.

Well said. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wasn't talking about the press lines. More things like motors, battery packs, and other small parts that they build in-house.

Doesn’t make sense to move those things away from the location you are building and assembling the final product. You just added to your logistics and spending nightmare.

 

[Krugerrand]

So, what’s happening tomorrow?

Nothing. Go back to sleep.

 

[MP3Mike]

Doesn’t make sense to move those things away from the location you are building and assembling the final product. You just added to your logistics and spending nightmare.

Depends if it allows you to build something more valuable in those spaces. Like expanding the body/GA lines.

 

[Yamantasdivar]

Nothing. Go back to sleep.

Great. Goodnight.

 

[Krugerrand]

Depends if it allows you to build something more valuable in those spaces. Like expanding the body/GA lines.

No way. It just costs you more money, more logistics nightmares. Just no. Dumb.

Never mind that there’s no reason to expand any production lines there. Y going in GF1 per Elon. Doing 7k at Fremont of 3, 3k in China and later whatever k in Europe. S/X pegged at about 100k/yr.

 

[CharlesSr]

One more possibility tomorrow, hiring a COO. I think it has a better chance than Elon stepping down as CEO.

 

[abasile]

It is on my list of possibilities. However, I would think he would have to be forced out. In my opinion it would be disastrous for the short term SP. As the largest shareholder why would he want to do that to himself? Who could replace him?

I feel that tomorrow's announcement is most likely business-related and not a new product. A cross-country "FSD" demo also seems plausible. A take-private or buyout seems like a real possibility for reasons including the following:

1. Elon is sick of the SEC and other purveyors of negativity.

2. The share price is lower than at the previous take-private attempt.

3. Tesla is actually generating profits and demonstrating long-term viability, thus making the business more attractive to potential major investors than was the case last summer.

Elon stepping down as CEO seems far less likely though it is remotely plausible. In that event, I'd expect him to stay on in some role which would hopefully limit the downside for TSLA. He might decide he wants more time for other pursuits. I don't know how his relationship with Grimes is going, but if they were to decide to marry, he might want more time with her. He might feel that his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX have good enough potential even if he loses his Tesla ten year performance package.

 

[jerry33]

I continue to believe that Apple's(Tim Cook's) ego and their desire for control over everything is the only thing standing in the way from them partnering with Tesla. The synergies between the two companies is so obvious. Simply put, Apple says they want to be seen as a software company. Time to put your money where your mouth is Tim

……...if it ever happened, oh boy that would be the mother of all squeezes.

Tim Cook only cares about profit. He doesn't give a fig about innovation, so Tesla and Cook would be a very poor match.

 

[Krugerrand]

One more possibility tomorrow, hiring a COO. I think it has a better chance than Elon stepping down as CEO.

They already have essentially a COO, they call him President of Production.

 

[Cartegena]

Are the SEC seemingly being petty? I think so, do I agree with whats happened? I do not.

If then SEC is so anti-Tesla, why does it routinely approve all of Tesla's requests for confidentiality of its exhibits to financial statements?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/999999999719000570/9999999997-19-000570-index.htm
EDGAR Filing Documents for 9999999997-19-000569
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/999999999719000568/filename1.pdf

 

[azaz]

No, not on brink of war. The low level war that has been on going for 40 years - just gets a little hot once in a while.

Of course the upcoming election makes it complicated.

In any case, Indian luxury market is too small for it to be a worthwhile big announcement.

eh, Im from the region and this is the most tense its been since 71 probably. even during Kargil Pakistan didn't give the nuclear signal the way they have already. the next 24 hours will be telling, if India strikes back again then we have limited war at least. rumors of Indian Navy approaching Karachi and what not.

 

[Carl Raymond]

US politically related news was overwhelming today.

US politics was lead story on ABC (Australian public broadcaster) midday news. Past two days it’s been Cardinal Pell, behind bars.

 

[TradingInvest]

Adam Jonas offered some suggestions about the news tomorrow in a note. Nothing that’s not already been mentioned here, but of course he had include a reminder of his opinion on TSLA:

“We continue to see Tesla as a stock that may be fundamentally overvalued and potentially strategically undervalued. The combination leaves a stock trading modestly above our $283 price target, leaving us Equal-Weight.”

The “potentially” condition in the undervalued part of the statement means: in the case a strategic partnership is signed with a company of caliber Apple, for example.

If my business worth $1 million based on financials, and trading for $2 millions. But for whatever reason, larger companies need to acquire my business to earn more money in new industries. Let's say they are willing to pay $20 million to buy my business so they could earn $100 million from the new market.

In this case, my business at $2 million is simply undervalued, because it's really worth $20 million, the amount other players are willing to pay. Adam J's math and logic is incorrect.

Besides, I think my business will likely to earn $1 million profit starts from year 4, it's undervalued both fundamentally and strategically.

This is Tesla's real situation. Adam J thinks EV will remain a niche market, that's where he is fundamentally wrong. He also doesn't understand how AI works - this is my guess based on how he valued Waymo and Tesla self-driving.

 

[Stretch2727]

As much as I respect buffet and Munger they just don't get a lot of the big companies right now and admit it. If you can't understand Oracle apple and IBM then they are going to really struggle seeing the value of tesla right now. That being said if I were buffet I would have already taken Tesla private.

I tend to agree that Tesla would not be a Buffet type investment. He tends to go for more mature companies with a long history of cash flow.

On the other hand, he is invested in BYD so must have some understanding of the car business and electric cars. Tesla is just beginning to generate a mountain of cash. They could provide Tesla additional capital to grow even faster.

 

[anthonyj]

Maybe Buffett wanted to invest in SpaceX, so Musk is offering a merger of privatized Tesla/SpaceX in order for Warren to get in while fulfilling Elon’s private Tesla dream

 

[UncaNed]

my best guess for the announcement is supercharging V3

Hope not. Underwhelming.