Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

Okay.. I just read what I read... ".......and is not a deposit on the vehicle"..

Maybe ~not~ so obvious...
Suit yourself though, it's not my $2500.....

are you trying to pretend that you WERENT dead wrong here, or what?

 

[adaptabl]

Nope. Presently around 30 percent from renewables and growing every year. Expected to be around 60 percent by 2030.

Not so fast.

Electricity and Renewables

• In 2017, Saskatchewan generated 25.5 terawatt hours (TW.h) of electricity (Figure 2), which is approximately 4% of total Canadian generation. Saskatchewan has a generating capacity of 4 533 megawatts (MW).
• SaskPower generates the majority of electricity in Saskatchewan. Independent power producers account for approximately 20% of generation capacity.
• About 84% of electricity in Saskatchewan is produced from fossil fuels – approximately 49% from coal, 35% from natural gas and a very small fraction of petroleum used in remote off-grid communities. The remaining 16% is produced from renewables, primarily hydroelectricity (Figure 3).
• Boundary Dam is Saskatchewan’s largest power station, with about 672 MW of coal-fired capacity. A portion of this capacity has been retrofitted with carbon capture and storage capabilities.

Crude Oil

• In 2017, Saskatchewan produced 485.4 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) of crude oil (light, heavy, and condensate combined) (Figure 1).
• Saskatchewan produces 11% of total Canadian crude oil production and is the 2nd largest crude oil producing province in Canada after Alberta.
• Saskatchewan and Alberta are the only provinces that produce heavy crude oil. Most of Saskatchewan’s heavy production is from conventional or tight wells. An increasing amount of heavy oil production is the result of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), primarily in the Lloydminster area.

 

[Chocochip]

Could the thing that nobody caught be that 2019 will be the year of Tesla Energy? I haven't seen any reporting on that. It seems like this time they are serious about ramping up production of the Powerwall and Tesla Solar...

It's probably because Elon has said that the ramp-up of both the solar roof and the powerwall products is "just around the corner" so often in the past 2-3 years that it's difficult for anyone to take him at his word. Even the bulls, myself included.

I know that's what he actually means every time he says it, but then things get in the way, and if we're honest we admit that the automotive side of Tesla will always be their first priority, at least for the foreseeable future, so whenever they're resource-constrained (or battery-constrained), that's where the resources get allocated.

But I still hope we will be pleasantly surprised this year. It's long overdue. And the street will be quick to present any progress in that direction as "delayed products finally available" rather than the more flattering "revolutionary products expected to completely change the energy marketplace".

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yes. Although 2500 > 1000, thats not going help too much. We dont know how many MYs will be ordered/delivered.
Tesla needs to replenish their cash reserve and Q1 has been stated not to be profitable.

I expect Tesla to do a CAP raise in the future. There is heighten attention on the company's ability to pay for all of the big projects on EM's to-do list. He also wants to eventually bring out a pickup truck, a semitrailer truck and a new Roadster sports car.

I'm not sure that the capital needed to bring in pickup truck, Semi and Roaster II are as large as some believe. Pickup should need an entirely new GA production line built so that will need some big bucks. I don't see why Tesla would want to spend that much on a dedicated GA line for a hyper car w MSRP of 250K. They will figure out the right combination of workers and automation for the number they expect to sell. I don't think they need to invest in a GA line capable of building 3 - 5 thousand Semis to start with. Again, they can moderate the capital investment by again finding the right mix of workers and automation. There isn't much downside to deferring an expensive high speed line 2+ years until the market requires that to meet demand.

 

[elasalle]

Essentially, it's a scaled down Model X with a Model 3 nose.

I'm sorry to go on and on, but that thing is a dud.

A few companies make like 90% of all the beers in US. Many of them taste the same
People like choices, even if they don't know what they want.

 

[scaesare]

Why do Tesla SUVs have to look like an egg or an oval? Why couldn't they do something like the Nissan Murano or the Lexus RX350? Those are 2 very nice looking SUVs. This thing is horrendous.

Totally!

Who needs aero-friggin-dynamics?? I'm MORE than happy to lose 30% range on the highway!

 

[Nocturnal]

As the grid gets cleaner, the SCs get greener. ICE cars start out as clean as they will ever be and get dirtier as they age. A big percentage of cars is in Texas where wind and solar provide a lot of the energy and are poised to replace fossil fuels. Even with 100% coal generation, BEVs are still better than ICE cars.

and here in Kansas wind power is steadily growing as well. Elon also said he wants SCs to have their own solar arrays.

 

[adaptabl]

The narrative “there must be a demand problem” is the main reason the stock is depressed. Could have been addressed more forcefully by Elon. It should have shifted to “can Tesla scale manufacturing to satify demand”.

He is already in trouble with the SEC.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's probably because Elon has said that the ramp-up of both the solar roof and the powerwall products is "just around the corner" so often in the past 2-3 years that it's difficult for anyone to take him at his word. Even the bulls, myself included.

I know that's what he actually means every time he says it, but then things get in the way, and if we're honest we admit that the automotive side of Tesla will always be their first priority, at least for the foreseeable future, so whenever they're resource-constrained (or battery-constrained), that's where the resources get allocated.

But I still hope we will be pleasantly surprised this year. It's long overdue. And the street will be quick to present any progress in that direction as "delayed products finally available" rather than the more flattering "revolutionary products expected to completely change the energy marketplace".

My sense is that since the 3 was a "bet the company" product this year will allow more diversity in what they do. Most of the work on the Y is already done and it will be a relatively easy ramp.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Okay.. I just read what I read... ".......and is not a deposit on the vehicle"..

Maybe ~not~ so obvious...
Suit yourself though, it's not my $2500.....

You are seriously still trying to claim you are right and still failing to read past the single arbitrarily highlighted sentence in the text?

 

[jhm]

Volkswagen — The automaker and former CEO Martin Winterkorn have been charged and sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission, accused of perpetrating a "massive fraud" in connection with its diesel emissions scandal. The SEC said the automaker issued more than $13 billion in debt in U.S. markets when executives already knew about software that allowed diesel cars to exceed legal emissions limits.

Hmm, the shorts like to morally justify themselves by claiming that they have a unique ability to suss out fraud. The remind us of sterling triumphs like exposing Enron. So how many of our Tesla shorts were keen enough to short VW and all the other diesel emissions fraudsters? You'd think they would be gloating about it.

 

[madodel]

This stock is f-ing insane. Almost 7k/wk sustained Model 3, Model Y, Chinese GF, and we're at $277. Wall Street is unimaginably short-sighted. But this seems like a standard MMD. Bet we close at $295 today, right around max pain.

Stock isn't insane. The liars and the buyers are all insane. This will be the reaction right up until GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW and the rest go belly up. Ignorance and stupidity are the norm. I will take advantage of the buying opportunity as I've been setting aside some cash expecting this.

 

[adaptabl]

I'm not sure that the capital needed to bring in pickup truck, Semi and Roaster II are as large as some believe. Pickup should need an entirely new GA production line built so that will need some big bucks. I don't see why Tesla would want to spend that much on a dedicated GA line for a hyper car w MSRP of 250K. They will figure out the right combination of workers and automation for the number they expect to sell. I don't think they need to invest in a GA line capable of building 3 - 5 thousand Semis to start with. Again, they can moderate the capital investment by again finding the right mix of workers and automation. There isn't much downside to deferring an expensive high speed line 2+ years until the market requires that to meet demand.

Maybe they will not build the roadster to avoid giving the free ones away as a referral "gift" HAHAA

 

[SO16]

The reaction from the media and even Tesla fans is baffling. "underwhelming". WTF were you expecting? 75% of a model 3, small SUV. I actually think it looks cooler than I expected. The model 3 is about a year old, did you expect some kind of crazy new tech just a year later? Then you have people talking about the small rear seats...uhh yeah, it's a small vehicle. You don't get full size 3rd row seats until you look at the Tahoes and Minivans of the world.

I love my 3 but I think the Y may be a better looking car all in all. I don't expect everyone to love it, but if you were disappointed then you have had your head far up your...tailpipe.

For the actual show, the buildup was pretty cool but they really should have brought up the lights more and had the camera pan around the car a bit. That was a miss.

They should have revealed the Y like they did the 3 with multiple colors and better lighting. It was really hard to see the Y.

 

[brian45011]

THE OFFER COMMENCED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2019. THE OFFER AND THE WITHDRAWAL RIGHTS WILL EXPIRE AT 11:59 P.M., EASTERN TIME, AT THE END OF APRIL 2, 2019, UNLESS EXTENDED OR TERMINATED.

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/f100d41b-f94d-4dd9-b725-906c1feba1d0

About 3.1 million shares of Maxwell have been tendered so far, according to Tesla, of about 46 million shares outstanding.

 

[Bobfitz1]

It's probably because Elon has said that the ramp-up of both the solar roof and the powerwall products is "just around the corner" so often in the past 2-3 years that it's difficult for anyone to take him at his word. Even the bulls, myself included.

I know that's what he actually means every time he says it, but then things get in the way, and if we're honest we admit that the automotive side of Tesla will always be their first priority, at least for the foreseeable future, so whenever they're resource-constrained (or battery-constrained), that's where the resources get allocated.

But I still hope we will be pleasantly surprised this year. It's long overdue. And the street will be quick to present any progress in that direction as "delayed products finally available" rather than the more flattering "revolutionary products expected to completely change the energy marketplace".

Agree. However I don't think they will short change utility scale power storage product (Power Pack and soon Mega Pack) very much if at all. Utility storage is ready to scale and impact fossil fuel use vs renewable this year and next. Continuing reductions in battery costs will further stimulate demand.

 

[SO16]

Not so fast.

Electricity and Renewables

• In 2017, Saskatchewan generated 25.5 terawatt hours (TW.h) of electricity (Figure 2), which is approximately 4% of total Canadian generation. Saskatchewan has a generating capacity of 4 533 megawatts (MW).
• SaskPower generates the majority of electricity in Saskatchewan. Independent power producers account for approximately 20% of generation capacity.
• About 84% of electricity in Saskatchewan is produced from fossil fuels – approximately 49% from coal, 35% from natural gas and a very small fraction of petroleum used in remote off-grid communities. The remaining 16% is produced from renewables, primarily hydroelectricity (Figure 3).
• Boundary Dam is Saskatchewan’s largest power station, with about 672 MW of coal-fired capacity. A portion of this capacity has been retrofitted with carbon capture and storage capabilities.

Crude Oil

• In 2017, Saskatchewan produced 485.4 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) of crude oil (light, heavy, and condensate combined) (Figure 1).
• Saskatchewan produces 11% of total Canadian crude oil production and is the 2nd largest crude oil producing province in Canada after Alberta.
• Saskatchewan and Alberta are the only provinces that produce heavy crude oil. Most of Saskatchewan’s heavy production is from conventional or tight wells. An increasing amount of heavy oil production is the result of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), primarily in the Lloydminster area.

And?

If you’d rather smell the exhaust of the vehicle right in front of you vs a coal plant, have at it.

 

[adaptabl]

They should have revealed the Y like they did the 3 with multiple colors and better lighting. It was really hard to see the Y.

The way they did it made it look like an after thought to the event.

 

[SO16]

He is already in trouble with the SEC.

Or the SEC is in trouble. Will know more in a couple weeks.

 

[TradingInvest]

This 550k number is almost certainly just the end of 2018 production sum: Tesla made ~293.5k cars up to the end of 2017, and 254.5 in 2018, which adds up to ~548k cars.

I.e. already public information. Sorry.

I remember cumulative 500k units was achieved by mid November 2018. So 550k by end of 2018 is about right. The total number should be above 600k by now.