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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This stock is f-ing insane. Almost 7k/wk sustained Model 3, Model Y, Chinese GF, and we're at $277. Wall Street is unimaginably short-sighted. But this seems like a standard MMD. Bet we close at $295 today, right around max pain.

Gotta bust the demand nonsense and prove sustained margins in order to undo the damage from the $35k Model 3 launch. An end to this latest SEC drama wouldn't hurt either.
 
Model Y seems great, good reveal.

General question: why does Tesla/Elon deem it necessary to unveil the car 1,5 years before start of production? It seems to me there are way more disadvantages than advantages.

I'm thinking mainly to reduce the possibility of leaks, but other than that... Any help from people with more of a business background? Other car manufacturers do the same so there must be valid reasons. I just don't know them.

"Deposits".... Money up-front...

Or, in this case, "Processing costs"...
Everybody that buys early still gets to pay full price, in addition to the $2500 spent last night....

Peter Roselle on Twitter

D1szpy-X0AcoJkM.jpg
 
People don’t buy a model 3 then a model y because they look different. They either buy one or the other base on individual/family needs. The crossover segment is huge, for the starting price of $39k they’ll sell like hot cakes. Don’t believe me? Visit your local Acura, Jaguar, Audi, Mercedes, Toyota dealer and see how similar crossovers stack up. I was shocked to see Acura crossovers at $45-55k.

Um....or they buy one if each. *waves*
 
Well, I just put my $2500 on a white AWD. For my business I can really use the hatchback door. Also, AWD will come in handy for me at times. Here in California, Subaru sells their gas guzzlers like crazy. It's a Subaru cult. But I can see these Subaru buyers switching over to the Y in droves.

What I really need is a truck. I keep hesitating to put a deposit on a Rivian mostly because I had a few questions needed to be answered before deciding between the Rivian truck and SUV. I have emailed these questions now 3 times to Rivian with zero response from Rivian. Basically, it pisses me off there is no response and lowers any confidence I have in Rivian.

If the Tesla pickup truck looks good to me and is not going to be forever to be produced, I'll switch from the Y to the pickup truck.

Wha..? Rivian has ‘communication’ problems and poor customer service? How is that possible? :rolleyes:
 
This stock is f-ing insane. Almost 7k/wk sustained Model 3, Model Y, Chinese GF, and we're at $277. Wall Street is unimaginably short-sighted. But this seems like a standard MMD. Bet we close at $295 today, right around max pain.
Look, this is the way it is. It's the way it has been for years now with this company. It has gotten worse lately but it is no different. Positive news will NEVER cause any significant rise in stock price as long as short interest sees an opportunity to make money. They can manipulate the market at will. They have proven it time and time again. The SEC will certainly not do anything to stop it. They have made that crystal clear. So why is anybody surprised by today's stock price? They are loving this.

If you are long...stay long.
If you are short...keep riding the BS train as long as you can.

If you are Tesla...keep doing the things that you know will allow you to succeed in the long run. They have finally reached the point where they are not nearly as dependent on the market for capital so try to turn a blind eye to it all and keep going.

Yes, it's frustrating. Infuriating really, but it certainly is not unexpected.

Dan
 
One thing to keep in mind for today's trading: the Model Y removed a major source of uncertainty for the shorts.

If you think Tesla is a shorting opportunity then the Model Y unveil was a major source of wildcards for 2019: Elon could have announced much earlier Model Y production than expected, or could have made some other surprise announcement with a big effect on valuation and the stock price.

With the Model 3 SR and the Model Y unveil out of the way any shorts sitting on the sidelines might feel strengthened in their short thesis, and the false narratives out today from the usual suspects are egging on that thesis. So I suspect there's a lot of shorts who shorted today with a cry of "the Model Y won't save them from bankwuptcy!!!".

I think as a result today's short volume might be showing a big uptick in short percentage, after relatively low levels in the past couple of days. Short-term longs speculating on a Model Y unveil surprise might be unloading, while there might be increasing institutional buying, although they might be waiting to see how big of a momentum the shorts have.

But if you are bullish about Tesla like Ron Baron:

and if you agree with him that TSLA is undervalued and you are ready to wait, it's a good moment to take their discount, or wait and see how far they are able to drive down the stock price.

If you think that Q1 is going to be awful, with another round of FUD, then you might want to wait for that event as well, whose magnitude will probably be narrowed down in about 2 weeks when the Q1 production and delivery numbers will be announced on April 1-2.
 
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I have to say the look is growing on me. The trick is to not compare it to the Model 3, but look at it with fresh eyes as a new product. The design team really did a good job maintaining as much of the aesthetics as possible. Really masterful if you consider the storage functionality -- nice blending of form and function. I'm not a big fan of crossovers, but this is probably my favorite and one I wouldn't mind owning (based on looks alone).
 
"Deposits".... Money up-front...

Or, in this case, "Processing costs"...
Everybody that buys early still gets to pay full price, in addition to the $2500 spent last night....

Peter Roselle on Twitter

View attachment 386649

That's unequivocally false. It's not considered a deposit on the vehcile because it's fully refundable and it's due to Tesla's matching process.

To answer the other dude's question about why reveal a car 1.5 years in advance. It's pretty simple. It gives you a better gauge of how to plan your capex by figuring out likely to convert demand. Highly likely because they are plopping down the $2,500 so these people will buy the car without driving it and then they can extrapolate from there with experience from the 3.

More importantly by changing to the Order process, Tesla took it one step further. By locking in your demand and configurations they can enhance batch production looking at a bunch of metrics:

% of Trim
% of Color
% by Region
etc.

I can go on and on, but this will enable cars to get out the door quicker, minimize on hand inventory (Which WS nags about for some reason unbeknownst to me)
 
I have to say the look is growing on me. The trick is to not compare it to the Model 3, but look at it with fresh eyes as a new product. The design team really did a good job maintaining as much of the aesthetics as possible. Really masterful if you consider the storage functionality -- nice blending of form and function. I'm not a big fan of crossovers, but this is probably my favorite and one I wouldn't mind owning (based on looks alone).
What, your avatar? Oops. TL;DR
 
Wha..? Rivian has ‘communication’ problems and poor customer service? How is that possible? :rolleyes:
It is infuriating. They have a link on their website to ask questions. My question is simple. Where the truck has a spare tire space. Will the SUV have a space for a spare as well? I have emailed them 3 times with this question, I have tried their facebook page as well. Zero response.
 
I'm also disappointed that there was no extended long range version with about 375 to 400 miles of range.

300 miles just doesn't cut it for most people. I sure hope Tesla is holding back on their next big battery upgrade. It's been almost 3 years since we've seen any real improvement range wise.

I really thought Tesla was going to blow this reveal out the water - given the last couple have been duds. But, this one made the last couple seem like the super bowl in comparison. Talk about a snoozfest!

YEAH! To compute with all those OTHER 400 mile EV's!

What a buncha losers!
 
My one concern is that I know a lot of people want the SUV form factor for the high ride. Without riding in it personally, it's hard to judge, but some may consider the ride not high enough (at least compared to other SUVs). Then again, it is more properly considered a crossover than an SUV.

If the height is not quite there for some, then the question becomes whether the EV and the smartcar/autopilot features are worth the tradeoff.