Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Foghat]

Minor observation, but did anyone comment that all model y color options appear to have blacked out trim including door handles?

In addition to the semi fleet suggestions, the European factory hint in the Model y FAQ, the solar roof market expansion...

I think another interesting thought is that the Nevada Gigafactory “machine that makes the machine” will be completely clean energy powered going to be the design model moving forward for future Gigafactories.

Imagine the storyline “Tesla producing 500k vehicles from sunlight, wind, and water power. First fossil free auto manufacturing site in history. Musk already has extensive reservation across many industries from recent product launch for first of its kind self powered “factory-in-box” product, electric semi fleet included for early adopters. ”

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Does that allow TSLA to book the $2,500 order processing fee in the quarter it is received?

Presumably, though I believe they’d also have to book a $2500 liability since it’s refundable, so it won’t help GAAP profitability.

More likely, IMO, the reason for this is to ensure people don’t configure a car right now and then cancel after the car has already started being built. You could otherwise imagine someone wanting to sink the company putting in tons of pre-orders for the soonest available versions and then canceling while they’re being built.

 

[shootformoon]

I doubt extra cash would accelerate the timeline. Tesla has cash already and would raise more if they need it. Most likely the main bottleneck will be the speed suppliers can ramp up - other companies are less agile than Tesla. Another potential bottleneck is speed of hiring at GF1, which I also doubt could be accelerated with more cash. Grohmann could be another bottleneck if its resources are currently allocated to GF3.
My guess is that Tesla is aiming for 7k per week Y production by summer 2020, but doesn't want to give this guidance because they know there are always risks of delays.

If they have enough cash, they can offer lease already. They can start hiring effective communication team already. They can construct 2* even 3* service center and have more parts available already. They can speed up the V3 supercharger adoption already. They can start construction of GF4 already. They can triple TE production already. The list goes on.

Obviously I am not in favor of any equity offering. The lost capital opportunity was due to solar city legacy cost and M3 ramp difficulties. But we are turning the page. I still trust tsla's capital efficiency is second to none in the manufacturing industry.

 

[shlokavica22]

Name the company producing the biggest number of EVs with significant positive margin.
Name the company producing ~50% of the global supply of batteries.
Name the company building a factory in China with stunning support from both local and national government.
Name the company on path to ~50% YOY growth for the next couple of years.

Now name the company that comes second in that regard.

 

[Tim S]

That Tesla Semi Truck production might start by the end of 2019 is a super interesting observation.

It's a very intriguing possibility, and the picture from the unveil is convincing:

Elon said that this is how the Chinese Gigafactory is going to look like at the end of 2019 then that's 20 Tesla Semis on that picture alone ...

Also note the title of the picture: "2019 Gigafactory Shanghai".

The heavy duty truck market is both huge and very profitable - and none of that is priced into TSLA yet. I always thought that the Semi is more important to Tesla's growth curve than the Model Y, because electrification of the trucking industry will happen much, much faster than the electrification of passenger light vehicles.

I believe Elon also said during the presentation last night that the Semi had driven there non-stop from Fremont. That's about 360 miles (580 km). I think he said it had a 500-mile range.

 

[brian45011]

Offset by the deposits line in liabilities. So cash goes up , but bottom line stays the same.

Revenue is an Operating Statement item, not Balance Sheet. The question is about how the "order processing fee" will be handled on the Operating Statement. Will it be deferred Revenue? An offsetting credit to SG&A expense? Or not appear at all on the Operating Statement?

 

[lascavarian]

So here is my take/musings....

1. Reveal served as an example of what EM was tweeting recently. Look at how far we have come! Reflect on this because there have been many accomplishments... in quantity, in products, in facilities etc. This was the spirit of the tweets that the SEC misunderstood IMO and he has reiterated it again for those that missed the meaning. Delivering a new model is just what we do these days.

2. Reveal of the Model Y was mostly an introduction of Tesla to a larger audience in China, soon to be the largest market for Tesla. The product was the new vehicle but it was also the celebrity and star-quality of the brand - an important reaffirmation for China.

3. Tesla has new influence on the board, a bit of a big and welcome deal, and that is also present in the reveal. No need to over-promise these days - maturity.

4. Reveal shows stock is good for the long haul so presuming an OK Q1 and once SEC is managed, more institutional dollars will be coming this year when the price is right.

5. Vehicle pricing shows confidence in continued progress in battery and pack cost controls.

6. Muted fanfare on model line expansion leaves room for attention to the BIG accomplishment appearing later this year with autonomous driving progress - speculation on timing of course.

7. Is Tesla going to redirect focus to SW development as the year progresses? Curious sparse mention of HW3 rollout and recent SW features like Sentry mode, holding fire?

8. Stock is in the doldrums and adrift as the market finds a new relationship less fixated on survival and debt and more on the truth of following a model of Apple or Amazon. Is the future pegged on a new paradigm on selling online or a new paradigm of the vehicle as platform for the SW? Maybe a floor wax and a dessert topping!

9. My nibbles for today have not executed as I still see confusion allowing the stock to drift lower until Q1, SEC, macro issues, MXWL and HW3 are in the rear view mirror. So many macro issues for the market this Spring, then the Summer nothing-burger time and then an exciting Fall as China develops and SW features (maybe) mature and then maybe an inrush of a larger investment community.

10. Can't shake the impression that there is something else coming.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I believe Elon also said during the presentation last night that the Semi had driven there non-stop from Fremont. That's about 360 miles (580 km). I think he said it had a 500-mile range.

Indeed. That route also involves a trip up and down Pacheco Pass and, bigger, up and down Tejon Pass. I’ve taken that route quite often in my S, it’s a range killer. Tejon pass, in particular, uses ~600-700Wh/mile.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm thinking It looks so much like the 3 they should have just made this instead.

I'm almost inclined to agree, though I'm sure there were cost and engineering concerns making this the logical path.

I'm liking this Model Y design the more I look at it. It'll kill off the M3.....but everything else too. This is a much more compelling option than Camry/Accords and anything targeting the Subaru crowd. This is what the American consumer wants.

Wer'e now looking at the Tesla moat in the real world. No one can touch this on cost for 4-6 years. No idea how we play this investment-wise. I may just give up on timing the SP breakout and buy shares.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

If they have enough cash, they can offer lease already. They can start hiring effective communication team already. They can construct 2* even 3* service center and have more parts available already. They can speed up the V3 supercharger adoption already. They can start construction of GF4 already. The list goes on.

So does the list of you WANTS which are not necessarily in th same priority order as you seem to want them. So, not only do you want everything, but you want it now...seemingly regardless of whether it is in the company's best interest or not.

Look, you can interpret things however you want. Buy it, sell it, pump it, dump it. No skin off my nose. I think only Tesla knows what Tesla needs and I am happy to defer to their judgement. In my eyes,they've done a pretty amazing job so far and I see no reason to change course now.

Dan

 

[NicoV]

Some production news from the competition: The Audi e-tron factory will reach it’s nominal speed in 2 to 3 months. Sales of the e-tron are ‘good’: https://trends.knack.be/economie/be...dium=Email&utm_campaign=Newsletter-RNBTREABO&

 

[scaesare]

It's not ~arbitrary~... It's what that sentence actually says... I'm not just making it up...
We can agree on that, right?

But believe whatever you want... You win.. I give... Not worth it..

Context matters.

For instance, without context, I can quote you above: "I'm.. just... whatever you want."

And while that's a kind offer, I suspect you preferred I read your whole post.

 

[KarenRei]

Some production news from the competition: The Audi e-tron factory will reach it’s nominal speed in 2 to 3 months. Sales of the e-tron are ‘good’: https://trends.knack.be/economie/be...dium=Email&utm_campaign=Newsletter-RNBTREABO&

4 October '18: "We plan to reach full production by the end of the year" (88 days)
15 March '19: "We plan to reach full production in 2-3 months." (60-92 days)

Great job there, Audi.

("Full production" = 50k/yr)

 

[electracity]

If any deal was for stock was "blown up", it wouldn't have been because of a tweet. It was simply because the conversion price was never achieved at expiration (redemption). Ergo, all cash.

Energy Gang Podcast from a very credible source who runs a green energy finance company:

The US Energy Storage Market Kicks Into High Gear

 

[elasalle]

btw, if reservation numbers are high, there is an always option to fast-track MY production timelines ..
IIRC, something similar happened after M3 reservations ....

 

[Vitold]

I have been watching YouTube videos and I think Model Y is awesome.

It is basically a Model 3 Utility Vehicle.

Bigger frunk, rear hatch, huge trunk, head room to spare with panoramic glass, ease of entry, seating for 5+2, range and performance. Also let’s keep in mind that Model 3 looks much better in person.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So, for the timeline. Trying to square what Elon said not that long ago(production late this year, volume late next year) with what was announced last night(production starting late 2020). What seems particularly strange to me is that suggests they’ll just start late next year and then add the other specs just a couple/few months later.

Only thing I can think of is that *external customer* production will begin late next year, with some production only for insiders starting sooner than that. That way, they spool up production volumes with employee cars and, by the time they release to outside customers, volume production is already achieved.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Just rewatched Model Y event.
Tesla added a little intro video at 29:17

Pretty deep frunk on Model Y

Private Private Link Model Y Launch_Vimeo 1 hour ago

 

[DurandalAI]

I think that Elon has finally come to appreciate the term, "under promise and over deliver."
While the communications behind why Tesla could suddenly afford to make the $35k Model 3 via store closings was a debacle, they announced the $35k version after they had started making them, not months in advance.
My feeling is: They're saying late 2020 for the Model Y, but I suspect they will be making them earlier than that.
The speculation on the Model F (Freight Truck) being manufactured in 2019 as evidenced by the Shanghai Gigafactory rendering is likely true. (Model A will be after that, so we can have S3XY AF.)
Anyhow, back to my original comment, I think he's learned to underhype to instead surprise.
March 15th as the Ides of March is a bear trap. He undersold it at the Y reveal, and he's gonna spring the trap in a little bit.

 

[electracity]

Who? And what's his source?

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jigarshahdc
The US Energy Storage Market Kicks Into High Gear