Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

I glanced over the chart, but after reading the article it appears you’re correct. The data indicates 388k for the small/midsize luxury sedan. Here’s the thing though, Tesla is taking sales from Prius, Civics, Accords, Coralla, etc. that market is much larger than the small/midsize luxury market. Model 3 is crossing over to the lower segment, to which buyers are factoring gas savings, no oil change, etc. to purchase the vehicle. For this reason, I suspect the addressable market for Mode 3 will be much higher than 388k/year.

It is natural to progress from cheaper to more expensive cars as you get older and move along in your career.

Many BMW 3 Series buyers traded in their Corollas,Civics,Accord, and Camrys.

But probably not many Prius. Most people don't come out of the womb owning a luxury car.

 

[jerry33]

BTW, Jerry, plenty of ~brand new~ Tesla's, 2018's, for sale... S's, and X's...
Tesla's own web page... Most with 50 miles on them, which I believe is the standard new car default mileage for Telsa....

I don't know what city in Texas you're in, but here's dozens and dozens just in Texas alone...

Not exactly "all that can be produced is sold"...
Because here ya go.... Already produced, and ~not~ sold...


Dallas: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Austin: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Houston: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Plano: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

San Antonio: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla


If you'd like to see more, just put in any valid zip code - any state - you want to search for....
Pull-down menu on the upper-left side of the screen..

Inventory all ready to go, all over the country..... Walk in, plunk down money, drive away...
And if you haggle, you might even work a deal...

You do realize that sold cars waiting for delivery would be part of that list, because technically they are still in inventory until the papers are filed.

 

[sundaymorning]

Actually I think the model Y was his attempt to pump the price up again. It just went badly since they did not tease anything else (I mean the truck was so hidden I wouldn't even call it a "one other thing". If they were serious they would have rolled the pick up out. It just feels like he's trying too hard now and not even convinces himself he should do it. I'm actually surprised how bad the presentation was the other day.

The Model Y receive maybe 1 minute of air time. He’s anti selling the y. Just like they tried to anti sell the 3 at one point after it was revealed.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I visited one of the Toronto Tesla centers. Few updates:
- I got atrociously low value on trying to trade in my Model S on Model 3. I assume Tesla doesn't want to take on additional used inventory unless it's a great deal, i.e. they can wholesale it with profit.
- No MR and LR in inventory - good
- SR+ contingent on the way to Toronto. I assume tactic here is to have stock to match up to walk ins for the end of the quarter.
- This current price discount has made store very busy.
- Sales is still commissioned in Canada, they were never affected. Perhaps info was just delayed until it was overturned. It does make me think that store closure and commission killing decision was a very hasty one, without full worldwide strategy preparation.
- Sales folks feel stressed, yet still engaged, open and proud to praise of saving the world and our children's future.
- Sales in US is (apparently) commissioned again. It went away and then came back - this is a belief of sales rep, but him being in Canada, I don't know what and how reliable is his source of this info. If true, leave all the hope of profit in Q1 at the door. Commission bonuses could have been a major savings for Q1

 

[Tenable]

What Ford claims is not the letter E but Model E, Model A, and obviously Model T.

I don't think Ford will have a problem with Model F.

They might have a problem with a G-Series Truck though.

Enjoyed the video, though the supercharging and battery swapping section didn't age well.

 

[JRP3]

If you'd like to see more, just put in any valid zip code - any state - you want to search for....
Pull-down menu on the upper-left side of the screen..

Inventory all ready to go, all over the country.....

Looks like each link shows the exact same vehicles.

 

[Creekstalker]

But with a 150-200 kWh pack and a frame full of titanium I don't think the base price will be below $100k...

Something that looks like this might work. I'd still have to wait for a cheaper one but have some friends that would do it.

Hopefully TSLA is up to $2500 or so in the next 3-4 years and can help a brother out.

 

[Tenable]

No idea on orders...with m3 it didn't help to reserve early so I think fewer will order for model Y. There will be some of course but yeah probably not a huge infusion especially with it being 1.5 years from production on high end.

These are my thoughts as well. I'm sure some people will reserve. I have purchased 2 M3s and still have a remaining day one reservation (loan) with Tesla. That said, having a day one reservation provided me with no benefit. There is a reasonable chance I'll buy a Y, (hoping for a very compelling new X) but I don't feel inclined to order / reserve one today.

 

[mongo]

Another interpretation of the teaser pickup pic, which is pretty close to the way I interpreted it

Electrek.Co on Twitter

View attachment 387244

Yuck, a fastback? No second door to access rear row of seats, a hard to access frunk (too deep) and that bed cover (while adding aero) makes it impossible to haul tall objects or load/ access cargo from the sides...

 

[Smokey4141]

You do realize that sold cars waiting for delivery would be part of that list, because technically they are still in inventory until the papers are filed.

Fair enough... Yes, the ~2018~ cars have all just been waiting for paperwork to be finalized... Got it...
Made it easy for you to see the obvious, and I see you're having no part of it...
Good luck...

 

[sundaymorning]

It is natural to progress from cheaper to more expensive cars as you get older and move along in your career.

Many BMW 3 Series buyers traded in their Corollas,Civics,Accord, and Camrys.

But probably not many Prius. Most people don't come out of the womb owning a luxury car.

I read somewhere that Prius sales have declined dramatically. Here’s an article written about it:

Prius Sales Fell Off A Cliff In January - Was It Tesla, Or Could This Be The Real Reason Why? | Torque News

 

[Artful Dodger]

You know how if you try to drive a non-offroad vehicle offroad, you can burn out the suspension due to the heat that builds up? That heat is energy taken away from your movement.

So, REGEN suspension? Linear stepper motors instead of springs and shocks? Water-cooled suspension? Paging @mongo !

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Yuck, a fastback? No second door to access rear row of seats, a hard to access frunk (too deep) and that bed cover (while adding aero) makes it impossible to haul tall objects or load/ access cargo from the sides...

The material info hear is the posit that the image represents a pickup bed shell/cover at a declining angle from the rear of the cam down to the end of the bed.

Then they just attached it to a GMC pickup and added Model 3 aero wheel covers.

 

[EVNow]

My experience as a parent was that it's much easier to sit normal adult than a car seat, so I don't get where these comments come from. When I heard Kim say 'not even a car seat' I thought 'she ain't parent for sure'.
If I can fit car seat, I can likely squeeze an NBA player. Ok, maybe better compare is an US football player, you know, that non-rugby rugby game, whatever acronym you use for it.

That depends.

Ofcourse there are huge child seats and then there are slim child seats. There are seats that are small enough to fit 3 of them in compact cars.

Also, when people talk about seats, they are also talking about leg space. You need more leg space for adults than for child seats - except in the case of rear facing seats.

 

[Fact Checking]

These are my thoughts as well. I'm sure some people will reserve. I have purchased 2 M3s and still have a remaining day one reservation (loan) with Tesla. That said, having a day one reservation provided me with no benefit. There is a reasonable chance I'll buy a Y, (hoping for a very compelling new X) but I don't feel inclined to order / reserve one today.

Note that with the Model Y order you can lock in the lower price which will go up by ~$1,500 next week. So there's a $1,500 reward for early Model Y reservations this time around.

 

[BrianZ]

I'm way late on this, but I want to say that people here greatly underestimate the effect of FUD on the general public. I've got to have talked to over 100 people about Tesla now, and I've met a grand total of 1 person who wasn't affected by FUD. This includes a dozen extremely intelligent people, one of them set the foundations for modern computing.

If you think about it, this is not surprising. Unless someone actually does research, all they would hear about Tesla is overwhelmingly negative FUD or preconceived notions of electric cars. It is a challenge to convince/educate people on electric cars, and especially the well being of Tesla as a company. The latter is exceptionally hard because it cannot be explained in a short and simple manner.

Therefore, I believe test drives are extremely important in communicating and educating the general public on Tesla cars. A return policy is far too much work. Personally, I made the mistake of test driving a model 3 performance at my local Tesla store. I came from a Model 3 LR RWD, and I thought I gotta have the performance. Now I'm paying a steep price for that mistake by pulling the trigger today on my second Model 3, but this time, a performance with AP + FSD!

 

[EVNow]

No idea on orders...with m3 it didn't help to reserve early so I think fewer will order for model Y. There will be some of course but yeah probably not a huge infusion especially with it being 1.5 years from production on high end.

I expect people who didn't reserve 3 - but are interested in getting Y to reserve. I might still reserve, but I wasn't interested in reserving the minute I cold. The way the 3 reservations were handled definitely has caused a lot of us to be not that inclined to reserve.

 

[EVNow]

I'm way late on this, but I want to say that people here greatly underestimate the effect of FUD on the general public. I've got to have talked to over 100 people about Tesla now, and I've met a grand total of 1 person who wasn't affected by FUD. This includes a dozen extremely intelligent people, one of them set the foundations for modern computing.

Same here. I've heard my friends say the same thing. They are not even sure where they heard it ...

Obviously it has nothing to do with intelligence. Its all to do with interest.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I read somewhere that Prius sales have declined dramatically. Here’s an article written about it:

Prius Sales Fell Off A Cliff In January - Was It Tesla, Or Could This Be The Real Reason Why? | Torque News

In Toyota's February sales numbers they didn't even provide a breakdown for the Prius family (Prius liftback HEV, Prius Prime, Prius c), although they finally provided breakouts for all of their other hybrids. . Total Prius family sales were 3,660.

With the decline in sales I think they'll drop the Prius for the next generation. Toyota is finally bringing the Corolla Hybrid to the USA (Auris Hybrid has been in Europe for years), the Prius doesn't have any cachet any more, US sales are dismal, Japanese sales are falling, and Toyota's hybridized the rest of the cars and SUVs.

It's not worth Toyota having the dedicated hybrid Prius liftback any more. They can sell the c, because the Aqua is still selling well in Japan.

 

[scaesare]

Battery costs are going to need to come down a bit more for a trucks to work. Trucks are going to need 150+KWh battery packs. This will probably occur ~2022 for Tesla and a few years later for others.

I'd bet Tesla can build a 150kWh battery pack now for the same price they built the 100 for when it was first introduced. Maybe less. I'd be willing to get they could build a 200 for close to the same price by the time the truck is in volume production.