Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

If it indeed has a 200 kWh battery does it need to be aerodynamic?

Yup, Rivian R1T has put a stake in the ground with same non-aero classic style, 185khw battery pack, 400-mile range, and 0-60 in 3.2sec (3.0 sec for the 135kwh battery version).

If it can be done, IMHO close-to-classic P/U styling will better way to break into the market with BEV.

 

[Fobble]

Lets be realistic... the Kona and Niro are absolutely competitors to the Model Y. They aren't identical vehicles but you can be sure potential buyers in that price point will consider them.

Their performance is lower and their features may not match perfectly, but their range/price is competitive. Guess what, that is -exactly- how Hyundai/Kia grew to be the substantial automaker that they are, by offering acceptable performance for a few thousand dollars less.

Kona and NIro are worthy Medel 3/Model Y competitors, per you definition, only starting around 2020 or later? As I understand, no one is able to order an EV Kona/Niro as of now besides the few in California

 

[MP3Mike]

Is this a concern? Maybe not, but those massive S/X price cuts that came out of the blue do make one wonder if we have a problem. Is it Model 3 cannibalization or just limited delivery staff prioritizing 3 at the cost of S/X for a few weeks?

Isn't this exactly what we said would happen? They actually raised Model S prices by eliminating the more popular 75D option. Which pushes people into either the more profitable, but more expensive, Model S 100D or into a Model 3.

 

[EVNow]

Trade safe, folks....

All these are happening for Microsft as well. Trade safe.

 

[MP3Mike]

You have SR with premium option. That should give full data connectivity.

No, there is no option to add PUP to the SR. (At least at this time.)

And no option to add the premium connectivity to the SR+.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Visually it's compelling for that region, but in terms of the number of chargers, not so much. Those "wrench" icons? Those don't exist yet; they're akin to the greyed out "planned" stations on the Tesla map (It's IMHO weird how Plugshare includes planned CCS/CHAdeMO chargers in Canada but not planned Superchargers). Most of the other ones (try clicking on them) are just one or two chargers per location. The Supercharger stations in the area are generally 8-10 stalls each. Which is for a reason - if you plan on charging at some location, you don't want a single outage or blockage to leave you screwed over.

(No need to rehash the charge rate or reliability differences on top of this!)

Regardless, Tesla's move into Canada is only getting started. Again, we know that everyone does this whole "No, they're never coming here!" thing right up until the point that the chargers open, and then funnily enough you never hear from them again.

Cars are not owned for a matter of months. They're owned for years. Making decisions on what's present only at the time of purchase is akin to purchasing a gas guzzler because gas prices are low when you happen to buy it.

All those wrench icons will be finished by year end. The government has been good in this regard. Once they are on PlugShare it’s usually 6 months.

 

[Smokey4141]

All these are happening for Microsft as well. Trade safe.

Microsoft's Parts and Service Departments are abysmal too??
Thank you for that, and good to know!

I will scratch MSFT off my investment list then, as well...

 

[mrdoubleb]

Isn't this exactly what we said would happen? They actually raised Model S prices by eliminating the more popular 75D option. Which pushes people into either the more profitable, but more expensive, Model S 100D or into a Model 3.

Right, but we did not see the impact of that step yet. At least not in Europe. There are still a lot of 75s in current deliveries.

 

[mrdoubleb]

You have SR with premium option. That should give full data connectivity.

I don't think they offer combinations like that. Currently SR is strictly standard, SR+ is partial premium and LR is premium.

 

[KarenRei]

All those wrench icons will be finished by year end. The government has been good in this regard. Once they are on PlugShare it’s usually 6 months.

I love how you give them every benefit of the doubt, yet give none whatsoever to Tesla.

Typical, of course. Meanwhile, Tesla's charging network has doubled in the past two years, but hey let's forget about that...

 

[VValleyEV]

This.

They are talking a 230 mile range base model for $69,500 before the rebate and two earlier variants available before that. I'd go for the base or middle one most likely, however...

There's that old military saying about how plans are great until the first shot gets fired. Elon mentioned that prototypes were easy and manufacturing profitably was the devil. As much as I like the look, price, and specs of the Rivian, I'll believe it when I see it. I've seen Tesla turn ideas into actual products. I haven't seen Rivian do it.

Note that ONLY the 2 longer range Rivian models, the middle and high end, will be available at manufacturing start. It is good to be skeptical, but also note that Rivian has been in “stealth” mode since 2009, has serious design/engineering and manufacturing talent, and a factory they snagged for a song. Plus they have fully-functional driving “prototypes” that they insist are not really prototypes, these are the vehicles we are going to manufacture in volume. And a young CEO that has a bit of that visionary thing.

It ain’t over till its over, but I sure would like to see at least one more successful BEV startup, especially in this huge P/U market. The other BEV P/U startups appear to be way way behind Rivian, many of them selling design concepts to get investment. And I am skeptical that the Ford/GM/Chrysler gang can break free sufficiently from their legacy ICE base and associated overhead.

 

[SebastianR]

Lets be realistic... the Kona and Niro are absolutely competitors to the Model Y. They aren't identical vehicles but you can be sure potential buyers in that price point will consider them.

Their performance is lower and their features may not match perfectly, but their range/price is competitive. Guess what, that is -exactly- how Hyundai/Kia grew to be the substantial automaker that they are, by offering acceptable performance for a few thousand dollars less.

I think we need to differ here: to me the e-Niro competes against the Niro etc.

In Germany the Niro (hybrid) starts at 25k Euro, the e-Niro at 34k Euro. However much I like Kia, they are NOT competing with the Model Y unless you think that the Model Y is a Kia class kinda vehicle - but then I guess you would argue that a Audi Q1 also competes with a Kia Niro (which I would also dispute).

I would like to see articles comparing the same class of vehicles with each other. For instance, how about a Q5 vs. eTron vs. Model Y?

Check the prices yourself here: Startseite | Kia Motors Deutschland

PS: Remember the Model S days? People were comparing the Model S to the S-Class and a lot of Mercedes folks got their feathers ruffled. I think at some point Elon Musk said that the Model S should be compared to the 5-Series/the E-Class. The Model S was more expensive than the E-Class but matched size/features while it had the price of the S-Class and lacked certain ultra-luxury amenities. Now we have the Model 3 and I like to compare it against the 3-Series, C-Class, A4. I believe that works since size, price-points, features, space, utility roughly match. I think we need to keep the comparison at that level. Yes there are folks trading their Hyundai econobox in for a Model 3 but that's not to say that the Model 3 is a small econobox...

 

[EVNow]

We are all in a Tesla information overload bubble. Here’s what people who come up to me in the parking lot know:

1. Musk is a brilliant, eccentric billionaire.

2. Tesla cars are beautiful and amazing, and they want one.

And they only have one question, which hasn’t changed in over 5 years: how do you recharge on a road trip?

All the FUD we gnash our teeth over? Few people beyond us pay any attention.

This is what I used to think - until a few of my co-workers said they didn't consider a Tesla because they heard it is going bankrupt. I guess depends on what news sources people use.

 

[Tenable]

Note that with the Model Y order you can lock in the lower price which will go up by ~$1,500 next week. So there's a $1,500 reward for early Model Y reservations this time around.

FC Are you certain these prices are going up on MY tomorrow? I know they said all models would be going up 3%. However, this messaging I think is very confusing for the average consumer who will have seen the announced prices during the event. I would actually be surprised if they raised prices on the MY. Though, I do recall something being said about guaranteeing it against "future price increases."

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Kona and NIro are worthy Medel 3/Model Y competitors, per you definition, only starting around 2020 or later? As I understand, no one is able to order an EV Kona/Niro as of now besides the few in California

This is exactly why they aren’t Model 3/Y competitors long term. They lose money at this price point and only sell them in places where they get ZEV credits.

 

[Fact Checking]

FC Are you certain these prices are going up on MY tomorrow?

Elon said "S3XY" prices would be going up, but it might have been a mistake or ambiguous wording.

 

[jerry33]

This is what I used to think - until a few of my co-workers said they didn't consider a Tesla because they heard it is going bankrupt. I guess depends on what news sources people use.

I always reply to that: That's been said since 2008, mostly by those who have a vested interest in seeing Tesla fail. It gets rather tiring because they have always been proven wrong.

 

[30seconds]

So I was helping a friend buy a model 3 this week and it seems pretty clear to me that there is no demand issue.

I suggested he call to see if there was any inventory in the color / configuration he wanted. They had two. In the whole state of California. Both of which were sold in 24 hours to other people.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You should tweet this to Elon. Making a chademo adapter for Model 3 should be a no-brainer.

That’s a good idea. I’m presently not on Twitter. A ways back we posted a request that somebody do this for us but we get that this is not a problem shared by many so I doubt anyone did. We have sent a few emails both to our sales rep and head office but other than indicating it is being looked at we have seen nothing concrete yet. We have some time so not a rush but some friends in our EV group have put in orders for the leaf plus just because of this. We can stick it out another 6 or 8 months. All good things.......

 

[ReflexFunds]

Lemur, the Mid-range 3 is gone. We'll miss ya.

Very interesting move from Tesla. Highly suggests there is limited MR inventory remaining - why on earth would you remove a MR purchase option if you have 10-30k unsold inventory (as claimed by the shorts)? Given LR option was only recently added back to the menu, I think the only possibility for significant unsold inventory is for AWD and P cars. But if AWD & P inventory were building up at a much higher rate than MR, then Tesla should have changed the production mix. Also, if MR was selling so much better than AWD, why would Tesla remove its best selling option? So I don't think it makes sense for AWD/P inventory to be significantly higher than MR and Q1 may actually finish with lower North America inventory than Q4 - despite the relentless demand FUD.

Remember Tesla started Q1 with c.7k Model 3s in inventory in the US and c.1k in-transit. If they produced Model 3s at 5.5k per week in Q1 that is 13*5.5k+8k = 79.5k maximum potential Model 3 sales. If they produced at 6.5k per week that is 13*6.5k+8k = 92.5k. If 40-50k were shipped to Europe & Asia, that leaves 29.5k to 52.5k maximum potential North America Model 3 sales in Q1. Some of these will be in-transit and in inventory, but overall suggests solid continued US demand.