Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpeedGoat]

Idk lol. 30k deliveries in just the US would be nuts for 2-3 weeks. I want to believe though

Same... as nice as that would be that is an insane number of cars to be trying to deliver in 2 weeks. They had ~90k deliveries last quarter, so this would require them to deliver cars a bit more than twice as fast over the next two weeks as they averaged last quarter. Given ships are still arriving I have to think this is worldwide.

 

[GregRF]

Idk lol. 30k deliveries in just the US would be nuts for 2-3 weeks. I want to believe though

I mean its only the amount of cars Tesla delivered in all of 2014.

Or in a full quarter starting in Q4 '17.

Nothing to see here folks!

 

[dgodfrey]

TMC, 3 hours ago:
There's very little inventory, NO WAY thousand's of cars are sitting in lots around the country! (just ask Jerry, he'll tell you) ;-)
(and in fairness to Karen, she HAS been telling you there is - props to her)

TMC right now:
30 THOUSAND cars, still need to be delivered in the next 10 days! Woo hooo!!! Look at all those EOQ deliveries!!

Relax.....I'm kidding!!


But seriously, anyone really think there are 30k cars just sitting right now??
Just waiting on "volunteers" (these ~are~ employees, right?) to deliver them?

Why not have some "owners" roll up their sleeves and pitch-in too??
Show some solidarity with your un-paid employees (now called volunteers), k?

Good grief... What a circus...
Only thing missing is the bear running around in circles on the tricycle, with a monkey on his shoulders banging the cymbals...

I think it's more likely a combination of 7k/week production + 14k undelivered inventory.
BTW, I rarely see the glass half empty position you typically post but it seems your civility while being poked at in the lions den is to be applauded. Just a little.

 

[Tslynk67]

What happens to the up/down lines when the across lines cross over?

End of current simulation...

 

[SpeedGoat]

30K cars are not sitting, some are swimming

So five ships as-yet unloaded. If they are roughly 3k each then that would be 15k. Two weeks of domestic production would account for the other 15k.

You can obviously play with the assumptions about numbers of cars per ship and production rate, but having 30k cars to sell before the end of the quarter is not unreasonable.

 

[tivoboy]

Wild speculation - it's also somewhat possible (10-20%?) that MR was software limited LR.
Though my original bet was that SR+ was software limited MR. That now seems unlikely, as one of the bloggers video shows that SR+ physically doesn't have subwoofer and second amp, or related wiring harness...
Yeah, in the end, I don't know what was my point...

I think it was already defined that it was not a software limited LR pack, but actually a different pack with actually fewer cells.

 

[Fact Checking]

the one thing i dont like about this is tesla cares to much about the share price other wise they wouldn't dot this mad rush before the end of the quarter. They should just say screw wall street and just focus on running the business more smooth.

True, but in a way this is a side effect of Tesla's exponential growth, which makes its perceived performance so sensitive to the end of quarter push.

With 3-4 Gigafactories, once deliveries are a couple of million vehicles per quarter I expect this to smooth out to more regular seasonal patterns.

 

[ReflexFunds]

True, but in a way this is a side effect of Tesla's exponential growth, which makes its perceived performance so sensitive to the end of quarter push.

With 3-4 Gigafactories, once deliveries are a couple of million per quarter I expect this to smooth out to more regular seasonal patterns.

If it truly does cost Tesla just $500m to get to 3k per week Model 3s at GF3, then the reduced inventory from a 1 month reduction in shipping time for 3k cars per week will pay for the factory itself.

 

[Lessmog]

There is some leeway between corporate speak and blurting out the next best thing while enthusiastically charging at windmills. Elon Musk knows very well that you don't stick every landing. [Stones, stones, small stones, sharp stones...]

Edit: Frankly, I wish ironclad procedures regarding his Tesla related tweets had been put in place for the two years' duration [from memory] of the recent court approved settlement with the SEC.

I obstinately persist in thinking it pays to parse your thoughts just a little bit because I've witnessed people who don't care for doublespeak at all being diligent about it - no need to sink to the bottom 2/3rds analysts' level.

Unless I am the one misremembering here, it's about six months since SEC began to grumble at Elon for his tweets, and the settlement was -- again, IIRC -- in December. 11?

But we can wait another day to see what SEC has to say for itself in response to Team Elon's "smackdown"?

 

[JRP3]

Only thing missing is the bear running around in circles on the tricycle, with a monkey on his shoulders banging the cymbals...

Look in a mirror...

 

[humbaba]

I think it was already defined that it was not a software limited LR pack, but actually a different pack with actually fewer cells.

Not a different pack, its the LR pack but with fewer cells. Enough fewer to allow them the lower price tag. And it was a stopgap before the SR (can't quote, but it was something like "we can do this now rather than February"). Color me shocked that the MR is no longer being sold...

 

[jhm]

Has anybody suggested that the Model Y reveal could have been "early" to reduce the excessive demand for the Model 3?

I did get an email from Tesla today encouraging me to place an order for a Model Y.

 

[Lessmog]

Look in a mirror...

Hope you weren't addressing me? Some aethereal beings reportedly do not show up in mirrors ...

 

[Tslynk67]

Bullish AF but the market doesn't seem to have caught onto it:

Tesla is asking employees to volunteer and help deliver 30,000 cars before the end of the quarter

An email from Tesla to employees states: "We need your help to make more progress in volunteer sign ups. We have to deliver 30,000 more cars in next 15 days."

Even if you want to pretend that was 30k globally in half a month, that'd be bullish. But Tesla's employees who don't already work on delivery are overwhelmingly in the US. This may well be a 30k domestic delivery goal by the end of the quarter.

Easy - each employee delivers just ONE car, low impact per person, problem solved!

 

[EVNow]

Good grief... What a circus...
Only thing missing is the bear running around in circles on the tricycle, with a monkey on his shoulders banging the cymbals...

Did you catch the pop dance/disco that GM did with their Volt promotion ? Perhaps you are getting confused what a tech company does vs a 100 year old company.

Welcome to a tech company with growing pains

 

[Tslynk67]

I saw on twitter they were delivering 200 cars a day in the shanghai Tesla distribution center. How is that even possible from one location?

Same way they're going to put up a Gigafactory in 6 months...

 

[Tslynk67]

I guess Tesla needs the help delivering these to lots since there are no buyers.

Tesla is asking employees to volunteer and help deliver 30,000 cars before the end of the quarter — Business Insider

Ran out of ships for mid-sea dumping, just have to drive them off the end of the pier now...

 

[Lessmog]

Same way they're going to put up a Gigafactory in 6 months...

With piledrivers and smoking concrete trucks?

 

[Smokey4141]

I hate to destroy your little FUD party. But if Tesla is truly at some 7k Model 3 run-rate for the time being, this implies that 12-15(?)k of these 30k cars don't exist yet. Remember, Tesla also runs production sprints. And I'm sure they want to end the quarter with an announcement that they have been solidly above 7k cars a week.

So do I think that a few thousand cars are in these hub locations? Yes. Do I think that Tesla stops production today and has inventory of 30k cars? No. Plain and simple. Good grief... What a circus...

Or......you're just getting played....as the inventory liquidation ramps....

Better to sell now....at literally any price you need to, to move that metal.....than after......when nobody will touch them...

Good luck, and trade safe....

 

[Lessmog]

Ran out of ships for mid-sea dumping, just have to drive the off the end of the pier now...

Walking the Tesla board ...