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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yeah, this is really weird. If the Tesla purchase doesn't go through, the price will presumably drop back to where it was before the takeover offer... $3.07 on Feb 1. I'm thinking now I should rescind my tender offer and sell the shares.

Eh. I'm sticking with my gamble on it. If the merger fails, I lose $30K; I can handle it. I won't make my gamble any larger though.

I do wonder exactly what's going on; the first extension was clearly paperwork problems (even the insiders hadn't finished tendering), but I wonder whether there is a large contingent of "it's worth a million dollars a share" MXWL investors out there. If there is... they're wrong.
 
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Eh. I'm sticking with my gamble on it. If the merger fails, I lose $30K; I can handle it. I won't make my gamble any larger though.

I do wonder exactly what's going on; the first extension was clearly paperwork problems (even the insiders hadn't finished tendering), but I wonder whether there is a large contingent of "it's worth a million dollars a share" MXWL investors out there. If there is... they're wrong.

Did you get the Cambria email? I’m curious what the actual process is for tendering shares.
 
Did you get the Cambria email? I’m curious what the actual process is for tendering shares.
I phoned my broker up and preemptively told them to tender the shares, before getting any email. I don't know how the notification process is going for other shareholders; it might be rather slow for them to realize what's happening, actually.
 
In the tweet, Lex said "Looking for objective journalists". People are recommending Lora Kolodny, Dana Hull, Niedermeyer and Timothy Lee.

If the research shows 95% Tesla owners love Autopilot, these "objective journalists" will write "Many Tesla owners hate Autopilot". Then they will add another paragraph to show Tesla is doomed.
If you have a twitter account, you should reply and point out that all four of those are wildly biased against Tesla.
 
I don't know about JB but I did wonder with so few of the shares tendered, whether Tesla's major institutional shareholders would each look to pick-up 4.99% of Maxwell's shares to a) increase their Tesla holding at a discount, b) help get over the line an acquisition that management appear to be believe is strategically important. It's only $11m for that 4.99%.

Institutional investors are not "covered persons" and should be able to buy MXWL shares on the open market during the tender offer, yes.

In fact I believe they could go ahead and buy 10%. They have to file with the SEC after doing so, stating that their intention is to be passive investors and make money off the merger, but they can just do it.

I don't think they're doing so at this point.
 
I wonder why no one ever talks abo
Products like the Bolt and other EVs with massive amount of compromises just drive people who wants EV to buy a Tesla more and more. If you're the only company that takes it seriously..why would you buy from a different brand? Honestly it'll confuse your friend if you ever tell them you bought an Ipace or a Kona EV. People would be like "wtf is that?..oh it's electric, so why not buy a Tesla?".

There was a time when people would question why you didn't buy an iPhone but got a HTC slide or something. Now you can actually have an answer (hence Iphone sales are dropping).

Until you can actually answer this question when asked, Tesla will not have competition.

I saw an ipace today, not bad looking, but I asked the same question. Why the heck would you get that? Not enough time to do some research?
 
The thing about the tender offer process for MXWL is that Tesla has a lot of options. If they don't get enough shares on their fourth extension, they can just bail out and let the merger not happen. But they can also:
(1) raise the offer;
(2) with the agreement of Maxwell, take the stock they already got, and then buy more stock on the open market and run a shareholder vote;
(3) with the agreement of Maxwell, extend the offer further.
 
Eh. I'm sticking with my gamble on it. If the merger fails, I lose $30K; I can handle it. I won't make my gamble any larger though.

I do wonder exactly what's going on; the first extension was clearly paperwork problems (even the insiders hadn't finished tendering), but I wonder whether there is a large contingent of "it's worth a million dollars a share" MXWL investors out there. If there is... they're wrong.
Not worth millions but just looking at the company historically, it hovered between 4-6 dollars for years and only dropped to 2 the past 7-8 months, which means a lot of longs are getting burned by this deal.
 
GM only sold 18,000 Bolts in the entire year last year. I would be surprised if they sell 10,000 of their "Tesla Killers" this year. I have seen a Bolt a couple of times in person, and man is it Ugly and cheap looking!

Reasons to choose a Bolt over Model 3:
- You're a professional cello player
- Your brother works at GM
- Dealer offers $35k part-exchange on your Ford Pinto
- You win it in a raffle
- MAGA

That's it, I'm out of ideas...
 
The thing about the tender offer process for MXWL is that Tesla has a lot of options. If they don't get enough shares on their fourth extension, they can just bail out and let the merger not happen. But they can also:
(1) raise the offer;
(2) with the agreement of Maxwell, take the stock they already got, and then buy more stock on the open market and run a shareholder vote;
(3) with the agreement of Maxwell, extend the offer further.

Is it also possible that they learned enough from the partnership to develop their own dry electrode that's sufficiently different from Maxwell's to avoid any patent infringement?
 
Not worth millions but just looking at the company historically, it hovered between 4-6 dollars for years and only dropped to 2 the past 7-8 months, which means a lot of longs are getting burned by this deal.
Maxwell management has alluded to liquidity concerns, and has looked for other "white knights" without success. They have relatively few customers and high development costs; they are lacking economies of scale. It looks like they'd have to triple sales in order to make a net profit, though they do have 4 years to do it in before hitting a debt payment wall.

If the merger doesn't go through, Maxwell will most likely have to dilute the stock; I think Maxwell's management has figured this out. Investors may not have. The company becomes secure as part of Tesla, which is now gushing cash.
 
GM sold 18,000 Bolts in the United States last year, down nearly 23 percent over 2017. The No. 1 U.S. automaker ended production of its plug-in electric Chevrolet Volt in February.

The Model S outsells the Bolt? I didn’t know this.

GM needs to sell X amount of Bolts per year to receive X amount of ZEV credits.

Ultimately they will sell at what the market determines is the correct price.

upload_2019-3-29_0-35-3.png


https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searc...lse&sort=price-lowest&stkTypId=28880&zc=90210
 
Going to pour cold water on this.
There was a delay both in Europe and China. So the call for a push in delivery could be to compensate for that.
Can confirm. The delivery of my LR3 was scheduled for Wednesday this week and then got re-scheduled for tomorrow (March 30). Just got a phone call from my delivery center cancelling the appointment: apparently the car is still at Zeebrugge. No new date given yet.
 
OT


Illinois has some seriously nasty coal in the south of the state. I mean, really bad. Take a look here:

Coal Pollution in America | Beyond Coal

Red blotches are coal plants with no announced closure date.

FWIW, the latest data is 2016 data, so every single area is better now that it was in the most recent UCS MPG map. In particular, MROE is a lot better due to several major coal plant closures. Southern Illinois is still really terrible, though.
Yes, down toward Peoria the coal plant stinks for many miles. Almost like they’re burning waste. Upstate suburban Chicago though is mostly nuclear. We’re basically 3 states. Chicago, the suburbs (who feel they find the rest of the state) and downstate, which thinks it gets the shaft. We’re politically corrupt and constitutionally bound to unsustainable pensions that are slowly bleeding the state dry. It’s a shame, we have good schools and metro area Chicagoans are great people. The city has closed its coal plants the last few years and the burbs are nuclear and more wind is being added.
 
Did you get the Cambria email? I’m curious what the actual process is for tendering shares.

I got the mail package a few weeks ago. I am not an idiot but also not voting on tender offers very often either.

I thought it was one of the more confusing packages I have seen. Cambria is confusing, formula was confusing, “tender” not clearly defined. I could see people not understanding it and doing nothing.

I posted about my understanding of the formula on this forum in the past.

There is an option to vote online which I did. I hope

I would give it a 2 for clarity since I initially thought it was a counter offer and not the Tesla offer.
 
Can confirm. The delivery of my LR3 was scheduled for Wednesday this week and then got re-scheduled for tomorrow (March 30). Just got a phone call from my delivery center cancelling the appointment: apparently the car is still at Zeebrugge. No new date given yet.

Thanks for the data point - but on a large scale, this is just noise. I was called to pick up my Model 3 earlier, and have read other stories of both earlier and later deliveries. Tesla said they would start delivering cars in mid February in Europe and to everyone´s surprise here, the first car in Germany was delivered on 2/13 (sourc: Das erste Kunden Model 3 in Deutschland ist gelandet! • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde even a day or two earlier in the Netherlands). So while individual appointments have been a mess, from what I observed this was not because ships were late etc but because Tesla didn´t know where the cars were and internal communication problems.

TLDR: Yes, there were individual delays, but nothing that would impact delivery numbers to more than a few percent IMHO.