Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

As I understood it, the story goes that when the GI's landed in Belgium, they thought it was France and hence dubbed them "French fries".

Of course the real name is chips, as in "chips and egg"...

No,no,no

During The Great War the American Army hired Wallonian cooks.

Americans saw them frying potato slices and heard them speaking French.

Hence French Fries.

So Pappy said anyways.

 

[RobStark]

Teslaquila, not Tesla Tequila. Otherwise it’s just not punny.

But the store will be in Tequila, Mexico.

Not in the multiverse where Teslaquila the region exist.

 

[GeoX750]

Wow. It seems CNN has added a “Ludicrous Mode” FUD level.

No reason to blame the messenger. CNN is just reporting what Wall Street expects and is actually helping long investors by setting low expectations before the announcement.

If FUD, its only going to help when the actual number is available and blows it out.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I sold some of my monthly calls and bought some 260 puts and 310 calls, weekly. Fine with it going either way. I don't like all the gaps that we've had in the past week. SEC case also coming up. Going to be volatile, but if the report is so good that we gap up 40 points, I'm good with that!

One possible outlier scenario is that the stock trades down after delivery report, we revisit 260 range and then the judge clears or only lightly scolds/fines Musk, and then the stock goes back up.

The more expected scenario is the opposite: goes up on delivery report and comes back down on SEC ruling. Either scenario, we retest 260, fill the gaps and form a double bottom.

The most crazy bull scenario: delivery report and SEC case positive for Tesla, and we go to the moon, leaving all gaps behind!

I'm strapped in and ready for all options. Let's go!

 

[brantse]

is your number 577992209? That's mine... I assume yours would be the same.

No, mine is different. It's actually alphanumeric as well.

 

[MABO]

Noob anecdote time ..

My wife called our solar installer today to brainstorm over the best way to add more panels to our current installation and possibly some more storage as well. As background, we got our Powerwalls maybe 9 months ago from a reseller, but the solar was just added within the last month. So we're still fiddling with the right balance between production and storage.

During the conversation he mentioned that he had just received 12 Powerwalls from Tesla at roughly 30 days after he ordered same. He also mentioned that he oversold the 12 and now has 6 more on order. She asked when they would arrive. He answered that 'you never know with Tesla'.

Regardless, this is a small outfit and they managed to get some Powerwalls from a new order in a reasonable timeframe. Until recently, they couldn't lay hands on them. So perhaps, later in 2019 will see some real uptick from TE.

 

[Drumheller]

Grab screenshots of CNN.

 

[EVNow]

All the auto manufacturers will be releasing the numbers tomorrow. So, I guess Tesla will too. Should have seen this earlier than refreshing every 3 seconds once

Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

We will report March 2019 EV Sales beginning on Tuesday, April 2, 2019. We will provide Toyota Prius Prime and Nissan LEAF sales around 6:30-7:30 AM PT (9:30-10:30 AM ET). Sales will continue with GM, Tesla, Ford and other automakers throughout the day and into the following day.

 

[kbM3]

I found it curious when Elon reused the “children’s toys”, reference with regard to Dodge Ram’s hauling capacity, since nothing came from his calling the 350 kW Porsche Taycan charger a mere children’s toy.

Would Elon really reuse this reference if 250 kW is the max V3 Supercharger rate?

Along with no mention of S&X being capable of handling even the 250 kW Supercharger V3 power level, could this be another piece of evidence for Models S&X refresh? A larger battery pack possibly with chemistry improvements capable of charging up to 500 kW?

 

[bdy0627]

One possible outlier scenario is that the stock trades down after delivery report, we revisit 260 range and then the judge clears or only lightly scolds/fines Musk, and then the stock goes back up.

The more expected scenario is the opposite: goes up on delivery report and comes back down on SEC ruling. Either scenario, we retest 260, fill the gaps and form a double bottom.

I think the market expects the opposite - sell the news on the deliveries and then climb after the SEC uncertainty goes away. It sure looked that way today when I checked out prices on short term puts. Premiums were high enough that it didn't seem worth it at all for the hedge. In the absence of high volume, MMs will probably be able to control the movement enough to pocket most of this week's premiums. That's my feeling anyway.

 

[SteveG3]

I found it curious when Elon reused the “children’s toys”, reference with regard to Dodge Ram’s hauling capacity, since nothing came from his calling the 350 kW Porsche Taycan charger a mere children’s toy.

Would Elon really reuse this reference if 250 kW is the max V3 Supercharger rate?

Along with no mention of S&X being capable of handling even the 250 kW Supercharger V3 power level, could this be another piece of evidence for Models S&X refresh? A larger battery pack possibly with chemistry improvements capable of charging up to 500 kW?

would be quite happy to see a surprise refresh, but, as to "child's toy" I suspect that was a reference to the semis charging ability.

 

[printf42]

Spice start to flow again to pier 80:

This is this afternoon around 5:30 on 101 northbound.
I counted 5 Model Xs on this one.

 

[Paracelsus]

I sold some of my monthly calls and bought some 260 puts and 310 calls, weekly. Fine with it going either way. I don't like all the gaps that we've had in the past week. SEC case also coming up. Going to be volatile, but if the report is so good that we gap up 40 points, I'm good with that!

One possible outlier scenario is that the stock trades down after delivery report, we revisit 260 range and then the judge clears or only lightly scolds/fines Musk, and then the stock goes back up.

The more expected scenario is the opposite: goes up on delivery report and comes back down on SEC ruling. Either scenario, we retest 260, fill the gaps and form a double bottom.

The most crazy bull scenario: delivery report and SEC case positive for Tesla, and we go to the moon, leaving all gaps behind!

I'm strapped in and ready for all options. Let's go!

Totally agree @Antares Nebula - If the court case gets thrown out with a big splash and Tesla creams the Fake News lowball predictions then buckle up.......... This has felt like a setup to shake out the last shares from weak Longs before correcting the share price of TSLA for a long time. My lowest GTC sell prices are on the other side of 400 at the moment and looking better all the time

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I found it curious when Elon reused the “children’s toys”, reference with regard to Dodge Ram’s hauling capacity, since nothing came from his calling the 350 kW Porsche Taycan charger a mere children’s toy.

Would Elon really reuse this reference if 250 kW is the max V3 Supercharger rate?

Along with no mention of S&X being capable of handling even the 250 kW Supercharger V3 power level, could this be another piece of evidence for Models S&X refresh? A larger battery pack possibly with chemistry improvements capable of charging up to 500 kW?

I believe the “children’s toy” comment was a reference to the Megachargers that were unveiled along with the Semi.

With V3 charging up to 250 KwH, the Megacharger could just be a 4-pack of the V3 chargers, in some sort of dedicated package for Semis.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Can someone with influence persuade Tesla to register off the left lane rather than using a wide lane algorithm?

Small stickers on the ground trick Tesla autopilot into steering into opposing traffic lane

This approach with some radius of curvature limits would be more robust to this hack.

Intentional deception of AP (as in the article) aside I'd rather for just regular driving prefer the inside lane marker (i.e. the right marker if in a leftmost lane, and left marker in a rightmost lane) for all that annoying straddling behavior when in long merge areas. At least, if lane appears to be wider than some value, anyways. A related annoyance I have is where there's parallel lines but the inside lines are worn down to almost nothing, it will re-center itself such that the percieved lane marker is the other side of a parallel line. This is particularly concerning when next to HOV lane with the vertical sticks as a barrier and the car suddenly decides to move 6-8" closer because now it sees the reflectors on the base of the sticks rather than the worn down line as the line ... it doesn't hit, but it feels uncomfortably close, and it makes a rather aggressive re-centering maneuver to get there then to return to normal.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Really good exclusive article just got released about a Fremont factory visit CleanTechnica performed this month, with a lot of new technical details:

A Look Inside Tesla's Fremont Automotive Factory — #CleanTechnica Exclusive | CleanTechnica
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Sounds like seats may be a/the current bottleneck in addition to battery packs... at least at the moment.

Their Model 3 seat factory was initially built with capacity for two seat assembly lines with a total production capacity of 10,000 seats per week (5,000 per line). However, since starting up its first assembly line, Tesla has been able to squeeze out 7,000 seats per week from the first single line. That is especially relevant when we look at the high percentage of shared components between the Model 3 and the recently unveiled Model Y.

That translates to a 40% improvement in throughput from the single line and has allowed Tesla to continue to ramp up its automotive production without having to install the second line. Though, that day is surely approaching as Model 3 production continues to ramp up.

 

[mongo]

I believe the “children’s toy” comment was a reference to the Megachargers that were unveiled along with the Semi.

With V3 charging up to 250 KwH, the Megacharger could just be a 4-pack of the V3 chargers, in some sort of dedicated package for Semis.

One megacharger cabinet feeds 4 vehicle stalls, (or possibly 1 four channel semi stall...)

 

[EVNow]

This is this afternoon around 5:30 on 101 northbound.
I counted 5 Model Xs on this one.

They need a railway track to pier 80.

 

[ZsoZso]

138 EV's were sold in Estonia in 2013 (0,69% EV Share), far less than the 506 sold in '12, when the Estonian market was only behind Norway regarding EV Share (2,39% in '12).

Yes it is a small market 1,3mil people only, but we have passion for fancy cars.

Wait, wait, wait, I'm confused...
Few days ago somebody posted a map showing the "most desired" cars per country.
On that map I saw this for Estonia:

Are you claiming that Skoda represents the top line of "fancy cars" ???

 

[BornToFly]

Like a scared dog that's been beat up too many times, I'm expecting more of a climb tomorrow, and then a drop after the spin/FUD on the delivery numbers for Wednesday. The only upside I see is that the SP has been climbing for a week, and I think short sellers only have 3 days to cover? If that is true, a lot of shorts are currently buying back shares at a loss.