Tesladaily made some pretty good points on how the stock will most likely drop UNLESS there's a S/X surprise which is unlikely from our sleuthing. Yes, the analyst will be surprised by the Model 3 deliveries, but they will just contribute that to pent up demand and solving logistic hell + U.S still has tax credit. The narrative of the Model 3 cannibalizing S/X sales will be all over the news.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesladaily made some pretty good points on how the stock will most likely drop UNLESS there's a S/X surprise which is unlikely from our sleuthing. Yes, the analyst will be surprised by the Model 3 deliveries, but they will just contribute that to pent up demand and solving logistic hell + U.S still has tax credit. The narrative of the Model 3 cannibalizing S/X sales will be all over the news.
Tesla does sometime include other info in the P&D report, for instance in the last one they announced the $2k price drop in early January.
Wouldn’t surprise me if this one will announce HW3 shipping in every car now.
Wouldn’t surprise me if this one will announce HW3 shipping in every car now.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
It seems that (for deliveries) the base bull case is 60k M3 (vs 55k consensus), and 15k S,X (vs 20-25k consensus). So that is 75k total for the base bull case, with a decent chance of a 5-10k upside surprise.
Interesting that Cramer drew the channel with parallel lines.... me and the traders I follow on twitter all drew it as a downwards wedge which is more bullish....
Then again Cramer saying anything bullish re tsla is extra bullish on its own lol.
The numbers of these "evident-based" deliveries estimates in US/EU/CN do not match with the productions. If Tesla has a sub par March deliveries as estimated by InsideEVs, the total deliveries won't be very good.
Let's say Tesla has sustained 6,500/week Model 3 production rate, the total productions would be ~52,000 in 8 weeks. (6,500/wk is slightly less than the estimate by carsonights - 80,000 in 12 weeks.) EU and CN deliveries are all from Jan and Feb productions. Alpha Hat also estimated 11.5k Model 3 in Jan. Let's conservatively take Alhpa Hat Feb number is around 10k. We would have US(11,500+~10,000) + EU(23,000) + CN(15,000) = 59,500 Model 3s from Jan and Feb productions - The total number is already 7,500 cars more than the estimated Model 3 productions in the first two months. Canada and Mexico are not even included in deliveries yet.
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15k S/X could still be spun as a miss and cause a sell off.
anthonyj
Stonks
He didn’t do the technical analysis, his buddy did. And he has a very high success rate. Cramer doesn’t recommend the stock. I’m happy that he aired this
jhm
Well-Known Member
Awesome. I'm not certain that the truck in my picture is a Tesla, but that was hinted at both by official UPS and Tesla Twitter handles.
Tesla and UPS may be working on something, but that looks an awful lot like this one from 2013...
UPS Adding 100 Electric Delivery Vans - EVWORLD.COM
It’s a little bizarre that the bulls are expecting 15k S/X, the bears are expecting virtually none, and only the analysts are expecting 25k, despite that being essentially impossible given the battery supply.
I think Elon has warned many times that it is very difficult to predict the S curve at this point, also it would be hard to determine demand for higher options... I don’t see how this could be considered fraudulent, but then again teslaq calls everything fraud....
Anyone who gives any credence to Cramer deserves what they get. He is a duplicitous entertainer (aka a clown) whose superficial commentary is often about circular. YMMV.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If the actual was supposed to always match the guidance - what is the point of stock market at all ?
It is a problem only if the company lies i.e. they think the sales will be 100M, but guide for 80M.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Any analyst "expecting" 25k S&X should be fired right away or more accurately investigated by SEC & FBI.
All they are doing is taking last year's actuals of 100k and dividing by 4. They are ignoring
- Lower guidance of 80k
- Seasonality
- Tax credit reduction
- Pull ahead of demand to Q4 because of tax credit reduction
- Cannibalization by 3
- Reduction of # of shifts making S&X
PS :
- Eliminated the lower battery capacity model
- Since all S&X are 100 kWh, need more cells than they can make
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I thought that was with a major OEM?
If Tesla had the capacity, I'd love for them to make the USPS a new vehicle. Advanced summon would be the cat's purr/ dog's wag for park and loop routes with package delivery. 180k vehicles driven umpteen hours a day 6 days a week...
*and* the fact that they’re all 100kWh now, meaning that would require a dramatic increase in their battery supply, which would have no source.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
It's a way for him to save face either way, esp after all his recent bashing. If it goes down, he can say I told you so. And if it goes up, he can say "my guy" came on my show and said so. Duplicitous SOB!
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