Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

Think about it for a minute. IF the forces aligned against Tesla succeed and Tesla fails....how many companies would pick up the sustainable banner and FORCE this needed change.
None that I can think of. We would be looking at more of the same with weird mobiles and compliance cars. All the while pumping poison in the air while we " study" what to do about climate change.
Tesla is to me a bet on the future...if it fails I'm pretty sure we all all screwed.

Which is fine, if Tesla fails I will have lost a lot of money anyways so I don't care much about the human race at that point.

 

[ggies07]

Tesla is the little guy getting beat up on the playground, but in the classroom, it's ****ing everyone over. I'm sorry, but Tesla now produces more Model 3s in one quarter than ALL the other competition's "yearly forecasts" that are 2 YEARS FROM NOW! Suck it market.

 

[sparcs]

I’m wondering if the low Model 3 production was caused by intro of international configurations and SR+. Wouldn’t they need to slow the lines down to implement changes?

SR and SR+ were only produced for a very small fraction of the quarter. The impact of SR and SR+ production/deliveries will be mostly in Q2 and beyond.

We will have to wait until the shareholder letter and conference call for Q1 to see why production for Model 3 was this low.

 

[ZachF]

None of these items lower production unless Tesla decides to lower production.

Q4 pulling demand from Q1+, and Q1 being historically slow anyway are going to decrease production because Tesla's business model more closely matches production and deliveries.

Note, I'm not saying the report is good. I'm just saying a few headwinds are making it look even worse than it is. It'll pick up as SR gets out there and the level of rolling inventory being shipped is constant, but we're going to have to deal with at least 3+ months of renewed FUD attack now.

 

[MXWing]

no because I don't trade options and don't believe in shorting morally, and am super long term (5+ years) long.

You could have sold your long shares, bought back more of them and take more shares off the market.

None of that involves shorting or options.

Since you weren’t sure you did nothing.

Doing nothing and talking *sugar* after the benefit of hindsight is the worst form of cowardice.

Even if you are long it doesn’t serve your interest to berete others.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Very disappointed in these numbers. Also S&X numbers will have to come back up as they still contribute a significant amount of the total profit and at these levels they aren't enough. Can't believe over 13 weeks Tesla still didn't manage over 5k per week production, maybe they had some issues with the European and China versions of the car but i don't see why they would be that different. 360-400k for the year seems very unrealistic to me. That means they must average 99k total deliveries for the next 3 quarters just to hit the lower guidance.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Also I don't understand how registered vins could be so high but they don't even produce at a 50% to registered vins. Obviously you can't only go on vins but I don't think they have ever been this off before.

 

[Causalien]

Shorts. You win. Good job.

Production numbers showd a problem somewhere. Now we wait for ER.

But safe to say the recession is affecting all automakers.

 

[ls7corvete]

Q4 pulling demand from Q1+, and Q1 being historically slow anyway are going to decrease production because Tesla's business model more closely matches production and deliveries.

Note, I'm not saying the report is good. I'm just saying a few headwinds are making it look even worse than it is. It'll pick up as SR gets out there and the level of rolling inventory being shipped is constant, but we're going to have to deal with at least 3+ months of renewed FUD attack now.

Makes sense to roll out a new product (and deal with the inevitable slow downs) during a quarter you expect demand to dip.

Though demand still outpaces production, by a large margin.

 

[Swampgator]

Tesla's First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

• New-vehicle deliveries in the first quarter fell 31% from the previous three months

• Tesla had slashed the Model 3's starting price three times during the quarter, finally reaching its long-promised base of $35,000, suggesting that demand for more-expensive versions had plateaued.

• Tesla attributed the slowdown to challenges associated with taking the Model 3 overseas for the first time

• The company cautioned that first-quarter net income would be "negatively impacted" while saying it planned to end the quarter with "sufficient cash on hand."

• Tesla said it delivered 50,900 Model 3 cars in the first quarter, down 20% from 63,359 the preceding three months

• Sales of the more-expensive Model S car and Model X sport- utility vehicle collectively fell to 12,100 from 27,602 during the fourth quarter

Does NOT look good.

My delivery number was 52k for the M3. So, my estimate was inline with 50.9k

I expect tsla to retrace all of its gains the last 5 trading days.
Looking at $270 SP tomorrow.

More like 260 in the short term. In the long term, say 5 years, it will all be just noise and the SP will be very high compared to 260.
Of course, in the long run, we are all dead.

 

[ZachF]

For some better news though, Starhopper just test fired:

Chris B - NSF on Twitter

 

[printf42]

This delivery report is terrible, I guess both long and short agreed to drive stock down at the moment.
I have some dry powder prepared for this scenario, hoping I won’t jump in too soon though.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

This will decrease auto revenue by nearly $1B compared with Q4.

Closer to $2B

 

[azaz]

I’m not an investor, just a wannabe Tesla owner driving a leaf and a smart EV. But I’m not sure I see the gloom here. If I read it right there are already 10600 presold cars for the next quarter. There also doesn’t seem to be a large inventory so for the most part they are selling what they are building.

The only thing that surprises me a bit is that they still haven’t gotten to 5000 cars a week. I am curious what is keeping production down, or is it deliberate to avoid building too much inventory.

Wishing them well. We hope to own a LR model 3 someday but our particular needs require it to be able to access either Chademo or CCS. Superchargers are scarce in the areas we travel.

most likely it is deliberate as in mid February when that vin list leaked online they were at like 11k+ cars

 

[EVNow]

Well, I should have stuck to my original estimate of < 50k Model 3

So, 10k less than I thought on Model 3 - and couple of thousand less on S&X. All the buzz around high deliveries in the last few days threw us off. But, as the report says they had delivered just a few by March 21.

we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter.

 

[azaz]

You could have sold your long shares, bought back more of them and take more shares off the market.

None of that involves shorting or options.

Since you weren’t sure you did nothing.

Doing nothing and talking *sugar* after the benefit of hindsight is the worst form of cowardice.

Even if you are long it doesn’t serve your interest to berete others.

no because then I would have to deal with tax stuff that I frankly don't care to. and my point is not to berate others, its about creating a better community for everybody and getting people to recognize that some of the blind bulls with their long eloquent posts are doing a lot of harm because people aren't skeptical enough of them as it reinforces their priors.

 

[Lift]

Eventually buyers are going to realize that they can get better deals at the end of the quarter, and that will be quite bad for deliveries...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well, this just made up my mind. Time to turn off YouTube notifications for at least three months or so. I think I'll just find more reasons to take Patience out for nice long relaxing drives. It's definitely my happy place.

Dan

 

[ZachF]

Looks up....nope the sky is not falling.
It feels good to be a LONG term stock holder.

Sky is not falling, but these revenue #s may make Q2 S&P addition a whole lot less likely unfortunately.

 

[Pezpunk]

CNN predicted 50k total cars a couple days ago. might have been a reporting error on their part, they may have meant 50k Model 3s, but that's definitely not what the article said at the time.