Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I like a lot of what Judge Nathan said today. However, given where she was going, she should have said that the previous agreement was not clear enough on what would be considered "Material," therefore she was throwing out the current case, while requiring the changes due in two weeks to better define and place reasonable limits going forward.

Actually, Judge Nathan said that the settlement is "ambiguous" - it's just that shallow and biased reporting didn't cover those remarks.

Here's a better report:

Adam Klasfeld on Twitter

As should be obvious by now, Nathan appears deeply skeptical that "reasonably could contain" is language that is "clear and unambiguous," under the standard for imposing sanctions for a breach.

Nathan said that Musk can't substitute the terms of the settlement for his own view. "He can't decide on a narrower version of that just because it's arguably ambiguous," she said.​

That's a direct quote from Judge Nathan, where the judge declares the disputed section of the settlement contract ambiguous.

Elon cannot be held in contempt for violating ambiguous terms of the settlement.

She does want the parties to agree to a form that works for both sides, but it's clear at this stage that she won't hold Elon in contempt.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla shorts betting against stock up nearly $800 million on day as Musk arrives in court

neat little fun fact, the shorts made more money today than tesla has ever made in it's history. (800MM>21+311+139)

You realize Elon has an overseas hedge fund which solely trades options, right? Elon makes that every other week.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Hey guys I'm traveling with limited internet to no internet. Can someone reply to this comment with a summary of the trial? I don't feel like trying to read through the lines with the bias media

"Ok, that's enough, kids! You two are both grounded for the next 2 weeks until you make up and be nice to each other! Now go back to your rooms and think about it! And don't you dare come back to me with this nonsense, until you've tried working things out! Seriously! I'm busy with real problems!"

 

[Bobfitz1]

My concern with Enhanced Summons is in a crowded parking lot. I mean that’s the biggest use case right? (No need for summons in an almost empty lot). How will it know the right of way with cars continually driving by, people walking by, and cars going in/out of parking spaces. As it is right now, I have a feeling it will not be able to come out of a space while trying to avoid accidents, or driving to destination with pedestrians. I can’t imagine Summons working flawlessly at a place like a shopping mall, Costco, event venue.

I thought the same thing when I saw video of Enhanced Summons in a nearly empty parking lot. It was moving pretty slow and cautiously.
Not a bad idea but in the very common environment you describe, I would expect it would move even slower with multiple stops. In a busy mall parking lot how many would want to be trapped behind a vehicle driving itself that way? So there are possible downsides to ES use. I expect the engineers are working hard to balance safety versus some degree of human driver nimbleness.

 

[TradingInvest]

-60k today, who has me beat?

I'm not a fan of leveraged short term trading. For those who want to trade a stock with leverage, should pick a stock that's more predictable, better yet, pick a sector index. In that case, if you are wrong on the long side, you can wait patiently for a better exit point, or add more at a lower level. Trading index has huge advantage. Then you can use the trading profit to do more crazy speculations.

Long term investment is different, you look for a few companies that give you the best chance in the long run.

 

[Don TLR]

Fun Fact:

"A lime is a citrus fruit, which is typically round, green in color, 3–6 centimetres in diameter, and contains acidic juice vesicles"
​

Jus' sayin'.

Those m's and n's look the same at my age however you spell the round headed FUD Spreader, she blocked me for pointing out the truth.

 

[anthonyj]

-60k today, who has me beat?

I remember those days. Down like $20k today. I learned to just laugh it off. The beauty of this stock is that you can buy/sell/short anywhere between $250-$380 and just wait until break even. Unless you’re playing options

 

[neroden]

In his video here, Bjorn says he took delivery of Model 3 in Norway only 10 days after ordering. He mentions others receiving it after 8 days. Also, there is a crowdsourced project that estimates 27K Model 3 orders in Europe and they have already delivered 20K. See the article here.

Oh, I see your probnlem. Junk methodology. We know (a) Tesla has not opened up every European country, (b) Tesla is not prioritizing reservation holders (annoying but true), and (c) a self reported database gives a minimum; should be at least twice that. You do not have linearized serial numbers to use the German tank problem solution on.

It does not pass the smell test. Out of an original 400k reservations, do you seriously believe that less than 7% were in Europe? SR has not even been released in Europe.

TLDR: thanks for your sources, now I know for sure you're wrong

 

[Fred42]

It seems there are no demand problems with Model 3 Standard and Standard Plus.

How about advertising to bump up sales of Model 3 Performance?

And show Model X doing its Christmas dance?

Getting as many Model 3s out there as possible matters,even if low end versions, but profits still matter to fulfilling The Mission.

Automobile magazine didn't consider the Model 3 for its 2019 "All-Stars Winners" because Tesla wouldn't "let a car out to play." I think they expect manufacturers to loan them cars for free to drive and test, and I infer they mean that Tesla didn't. This might have prevented low cost good PR. As others have said, Tesla needs a good PR dept. Or maybe what they said was just an excuse.

 

[The Blue Owl]

If they post a profit, I will stand in the middle of Times Square half naked holding a self-degrading sign of your choice. I swear. I will YouTube it.

Could you please let CNBC know in advance? I'd like to see Phil LeBeau reporting to Melissa on it.

 

[TradingInvest]

Aerial photo taken on April 3, 2019 shows the construction site of Tesla's new gigafactory in Shanghai, east China. The construction of U.S. electric carmaker Tesla's new gigafactory in Shanghai is going smoothly. Tesla signed the agreement with the Shanghai municipal government in July 2018 to build the factory. In October, the company was approved to use an 864,885-square-meter tract of land in Lingang for its Shanghai plant, which has an annual producing capacity of 500,000 electric cars. (Xinhua/Ding Ting)

View attachment 393787
Additional pictures found at Construction of Tesla's new gigafactory in Shanghai going smoothly - Xinhua | English.news.cn

At this pace, the main construction will be done in a few more weeks. Then equipment installation will get started. I hope this will be a single story factory, all future factories duplicate this design.

 

[neroden]

There were?

The leak about 5 factory shutdown days in Jan, non consecutive. Reports of delays in Euro spec parts. Intro of Euro and China models, both likely to require retooling. Intro of SR and SR+, certain to require retooling. Switching back from Euro to US production, likely to require downtime.

 

[Thekiwi]

Watching a ridiculous piece on Bloomberg TV right now on Tesla deliveries and the two panelists they have on are Dana Hull and uber-bear David Kudla

Kudla is currently spewing FUD that Model 3 units in Q1 were all low margin entry level units (which is of course complete bollocks)

Dana Hull is being Dana Hull.

I just tweeted this to Dana Hull:

@danahull Thought you were a Tesla expert?

Why didn’t you correct David Kudla’s assertion that Tesla was shipping mostly low price model 3s last quarter?

You of course know every European (AWD or Perfromacne) & China (LR/AWD/Performance) model 3 was a high priced unit

$TSLA”

 

[KarenRei]

I've been thinking a bit about our mystery stock buyer or buyers, who made the stock surge into the $290s yesterday and provided unexpectedly strong, consistent price support today. And I'm wondering if it is a Chinese entity.

What is it that China has consistently tried and failed to achieve with its auto industry? Answer: a brand that westerners will buy. Tesla is such a brand - and one consistent with their cleantech policy goals. And its stock can be bought up, either to take private or simply to have a large ownership / voting stake. Tesla in effect being a Chinese-American multinational (lots of examples of that sort of thing in the automotive world)

We've also talked a lot about how wonderful it is that Tesla has gotten such favourable treatment in China. But it's also rather... well, weird. Musk treated like a dignitary? Ridiculously good loans? Hugely accelerated schedule on everything? Fully owned by Tesla? I've heard some people find it so suspicious that they assume GF3 is a ruse for China to steal Tesla's tech. If, however, those who've been so supportive of Tesla are also connected to those acquiring the stock, suddenly it makes a ton of sense.

When did all of this refocus on China start? Fall of last year. Right after Musk's privatization attempt failed.

Just throwing out a random conspiracy theory I have absolutely zero evidence behind this.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Nobody's probably going to like this question, but...

If there's no good will on the SEC's part to clarify the language of the settlement and there's a chance of judge throwing it out and re-opening the 420 tweet case, which in turn has a possibility of Elon removed as a CEO in the worst case,

Do we think that Elon will feel pressured into giving concessions on the clarifying the settlement language to steer clear of the original case?

Or do people here think it makes sense to hold your ground and re-do the 420?

The leverage the SEC has is prolonging the issue and keeping Tesla tangled up in litigation for years. SEC will not get a contempt citation, the judge already decided that. Years of uncertainty versus getting 40 million in fines voided (pays a lot of legal expenses) is the trade off. The offending tweet was the infamous funding secured but the SEC seems more concerned about production numbers than that. How far will SEC carry this? Would they try to stop Musks girlfriend from guessing production numbers or his mother (they are not officers of the company but investors would follow them believing they had inside info. This really is getting out of control a reasonable settlement would include a fine for demonstable false tweet allowing anything that is guidance and so labeled fair

 

[KarenRei]

Nobody's probably going to like this question, but...

If there's no good will on the SEC's part to clarify the language of the settlement and there's a chance of judge throwing it out and re-opening the 420 tweet case, which in turn has a possibility of Elon removed as a CEO in the worst case,

Do we think that Elon will feel pressured into giving concessions on the clarifying the settlement language to steer clear of the original case?

Or do people here think it makes sense to hold your ground and re-do the 420?

1. Why was the SEC so keen to settle in the first place?

2. Why would the same logic no longer apply?

The SEC is no more interested in protracted court battles with uncertain outcomes than Tesla is. They have finite resources and like easy victories.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Seriously, who pays attention to advertising? Did you ever buy car because of an advert? I didn't. Mostly it has been because of recommendation or just seeing something in the streets that I liked the look of and then researching it.

It’s subliminal. All advertising is. If you see it on TV or online every month or so, it tells you the company is still there, still sending out a message, and there MAY be something you learn that you didn’t know if you’re not a brand fan/follower.

A Tesla add stating its the #1 luxury sedan in America 6 months running and there’s an SUV coming out (“”Go to Tesla.com!”) is easy and I think would do a lot of good.

 

[gene]

-60k today, who has me beat?

On paper minus $52,000.

 

[Stretch2727]

Tesla shorts betting against stock up nearly $800 million on day as Musk arrives in court

neat little fun fact, the shorts made more money today than tesla has ever made in it's history. (800MM>21+311+139)

And the longs (including Elon) have made $42 Billion.

46 billion market cap minus about 4.0B capital raised....

 

[neroden]

Guidance was "slightly lower" than Q4 2019. A 56% drop isn't "slightly lower" in anyone's book - although personally I agree with you that 15k would have been a better estimate, it just wan't an estimate that was alluded to by anyone at Tesla.

Also, lets be honest here, if anyone posted a week ago they thought S and X sales would drop 50%, they'd have earned 30 down-votes and a "funny" and accused of being a short-troll. No?

Lots here expected 15k. 12k was low.