Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

Negative? Maybe, maybe not. It shouldn’t have been a surprise to FCA stockholders they were in deep doo-doo re EU CO2 limits. This might be considered good news since they snagged the only partner that could significantly help them.

I suspect that the other automakers are still dealing with the dieselgate fallout that they haven't had time to look towards the future yet. THey were relying on the diesel cars to meet the emission standards and being in damage control mode meant that someone forgot to look at the emission standard requirement for the next 3 years if they take out their previous assumption about how clean their diesels are.
Now that the FCA tsla pooling come out. I expect some scrambling to happen as they start looking at this problem.

 

[Fact Checking]

So so true. The way machine learning works is that with the data and inferences/labelling that occurs early on there is only very rough 'intelligence' to the way humans would look at it. But as more refinement of both the data and the inferences/labelling occur there really is an exponential leap in accuracy and predictive capability. I think with 2019.8.5 and 2019.8.12 we are seeing that clearly cross that threshold. Once over it actually will accelerate in perceived accuracy and 'humanness' of the AI/for extended autopilot and more likely FSD features.

Yeah, and that's still with HW 2.5: imagine the leap the FSD computer is going to enable, with much larger networks and 20x performance ...

 

[elasalle]

I suspect that the other automakers are still dealing with the dieselgate fallout that they haven't had time to look towards the future yet. THey were relying on the diesel cars to meet the emission standards and being in damage control mode meant that someone forgot to look at the emission standard requirement for the next 3 years if they take out their previous assumption about how clean their diesels are.
Now that the FCA tsla pooling come out. I expect some scrambling to happen as they start looking at this problem.

Others also have to deal with EU fines and also potentially US SEC and Korea (BMW fires) ...
It's too costly to change directions ....

 

[Pras]

..

Hmm... I agree that ARK seems to at least have their investment information straight. I dunno about this technical data though.

Just do the math, in order for the LR Model Y AWD to make it's purported 300 mile range, it would need a usable 86.2kWh pack. That implies something close to a 90kWh pack with buffer.

I'm not sure how likely that is in something with a footprint not much larger than a Model 3... but who knows?

on the related point. I just came from a 120 mile road trip (2 adult 2 kids, mildly hilly areas but mostly highway, ac on but outside was nice 69F, almost all on NOA). My 3LRD gave a never before mileage of 246wh/mi. I am suspecting that the recent software upgrade added to the efficiency of the motor. So don’t discount that over time the efficiency gain can happen from improvement in motor and related software.

 

[SebastianR]

OT: On Sandy Munro: I admire the man for his change of attitude. For being straightforward and for being transparent about changing his position. However, I do think we should be very carful accepting his words as "true": he might know a lot about welding, aluminum, steel, suspensions, crash ratings etc. but I don't think he knows much about "the big three" as he calls them 1) drive train, 2) battery and 3) power electronics. He doesn't really understand the 4th fo the big 3 which is software (he references that he trusts their software).
He also doesn't know much about non-car topics like energy policy, renewables etc.
So yes, great to watch, entertaining, good to have "car guy" reconfirm some of the things we know. But ultimately he is out of his depth: he can tear things down but he doesn't know what's going on in Tesla's power electronics, their chips, their software, the off-car super charging etc. He freely admits that he didn't get things right the first and second time he analysed certain parts. But again - I'm very happy for him to be vocal, transparent and a genuine guy.

Tesla is now prostituting itself for a "handful of cash", so that a struggling car maker corp. can continue producing their ass-backward stinker cars. With that, Tesla has become part of the problem it originally tried to solve. Way to go.

I know you got a lot of dislikes for that but I would like to alert everyone to the fact that this is _exactly_ the narrative that prevails in German forums right now. Of course people conveniently forget that Porsche & Audi need this mechanism, since VAG would need to pay billions of fines otherwise. And I fail to see why others should not exploit the same mechanism that the German Premium folks created for themselves - but hey, I guess nobody saw it coming, it involves Tesla and now it is somehow really bad. (The anger in German media seems to indicate that VW & Co. are really upset).

(Aside: everyone, please tame your expectations. TSLA will not gap up dramatically until we know how much & when, for all we know this will really only hit in 2020; we are best served not to collectively lose our heads now. Also, there will be a loss in Q1. Tesla guided for it, it will be there.).

 

[Tslynk67]

I didn’t see anything that defined how the pool emissions we computed. This is my guess, which would let some enterprising person estimate the number of Teslas that need to be sold in the EU to meet the emissions cap if they can research the variables:

View attachment 394697

Where’s the “WTF?” Rating when you need it?

 

[ggr]

To be fair, it's more that "steady-state" demand is such that they lose money, rather than "no demand"....
And as such, they eventually run out of money...
When that actual point is, is much the debate.... I have no answer to that one myself...

It's pretty clear that the largest Board members are getting out as fast as they can, though.... So there's that....

View attachment 394719

What's quite clear is that someone is making up numbers. Where did that graphic come from?

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks for mentioning me - but I don´t know much about that, sorry. BTW, you´re forgetting quite a few other European members!

Well I actually work at the European Commission, and I have no idea whatsoever...

 

[Antares Nebula]

It's unlikely to gap up substantially as there is no knowledge of what has been paid.

Volumes are more important than an unknown cash payment.

Yes, hard to say. Actually I don't mind a little bit of a dip, would like to add a few more options. The Fiat news, while very good, doesn't really affect the fundamental long term story. I think, regardless, deliveries will only grow going forward, and there is so much good news coming out -- autopilot, pickup, etc. -- that stock will likely move up. Also, I'm not really crazy about TSLA gapping up all the time, because I always worry that those gaps come back and fill.

 

[Smokey4141]

It seems like there's is no sense of what time frame these payments are made. Couldn't they be spread out over years?

I'm presuming this is for me?

But yes, they absolutely ~could~ be slowing these sales down, or even put their plans on hold...

But that's the point... They're not... They're accelerating... ~NOT~ holding off for the future price appreciation....
And at the rate they're going, several Board members (with some the largest stock option positions) will be done by June of this year...

Edit: Meant to add, the dates are at the bottom of the chart, if that wasn't clear...

 

[Smokey4141]

And yet you have made 2 posts in last 1/2 hr.
Contra indicator that SP goes up tomorrow .....

Yep... Counting the posts until I'm banned again.... ;-)

And then someone will say, "Man.... Shorts sure are quiet lately....."

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[PhaseWhite]

I'm sure more details will be disclosed, but until then let's attempt to read between the lines and speculate about the sum:

• The exact wording in the FT was:
  • "Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros so the electric carmaker’s vehicles are counted in its fleet in order to avoid large fines for breaking tough new EU emissions rules."
    
  • "Analysts at Jefferies forecast FCA could face fines in excess of €2bn in 2021 when the new targets become law. "
• The Financial Times is owned by "The Nikkei" Japanese business media giant with opaque ownership - Japanese old money I suspect?
• The source of the story was FCA. To FCA this is probably a negative story, and they'd want to break it slowly, with a drip-drip of details.
• Tesla is probably under NDA until they must file financials. No big motivation for them to leak.
• "Hundreds of millions of euros" is 200m-900m. "Hundreds of" technically includes 200-999m, but above 500m the "more than half a billion" would be more appropriate.
• FCA's motivation is probably to downplay the figures: this is an extra cost. If it was only 200m then I'd expect them to leak that. If it was say 300m then they could say 'low hundreds of".
• FCA probably has no motivation to exaggerate the sum.
• Hence my guess: 400-600m euros, which is $450m-$670m.
• Less or more is possible as well, but I'd be surprised if it was below 300m: FCA would leak it immediately, plus it's too low compared to the looming 2 billion euros fine per year.

The big question: why keep this secret? It would come out in Tesla financials anyway.

Speculation only. Not advice. Might have to eat crow.

The FT author followed up with a more precise price range: "Low triple digit million figure"
Patrick McGee on Twitter

So for me this implies the deal is more likely for 200-300M euros or $224-$336M dollars. (Assuming correct use of the word "hundreds" implying >200M)

 

[Antares Nebula]

FWIW, gloating is never a good look, but shorts are quiet.....because ~banning~ them....tends to do that...
Kinda simple, to be honest....

And eventually we learn it's just not worth the trouble.....

Good luck though!

Yeah, because the constant trolling by shorts on SA and twitter really add value to the discussion!!

You can't even read the $TSLA twitter thread anymore. It's total rubbish. Just look at Tesla short numero uno, Mr. Mark Spiegel. Insulting federal judges and spewing profanity all over twitter. Does this guy even have an ounce of manners or even intelligence?!

 

[Tslynk67]

Just finished first long-distance trip with no confirm lane-changing (2019.8.5) (see here for writeup). My reason for posting on investor thread is simply this observation: Tesla is going to sell a lot of cars because of its progress toward self-driving.

I often read criticisms of Tesla's incremental progress on self-driving as saying "until the system actually achieves Level 4 or 5, what's the point?" Well, the point is there will be a tremendous amount of perceived value to the nearly effortless and stress-free way one can now drive on the highway. If this level of functionality were to be added to surface streets (stop lights, left and right turns, etc.) by end of year, per Elon's comments, then Tesla sales will benefit from the "self-driving market leader" halo effect for years to come.

Some have also suggested that it doesn't apply to the mainstream market (i.e. $35K base price) car, because it raises the price to $43K. Wouldn't be surprised if Tesla offered a monthly subscription (~$100/month?) to help address that need. The experience is already compelling, and it will undoubtedly get even better with time. Once someone has tried it out (30-day free trial?), very few will want to give it up.

Sorry, but you must be mistaken. I read an article last year which clearly stated that Tesla were a distant last with regards to autonomy - there was a graph, so I know it’s true!m.

 

[Smokey4141]

What's quite clear is that someone is making up numbers. Where did that graphic come from?

From Twitter....
Maybe the matrix below will be more complete and helpful...

 

[Mader Levap]

"From Twitter" yet no direct link.

Let me guess, it is from someone that has no credibility on this board?

 

[Antares Nebula]

I'm sure more details will be disclosed, but until then let's attempt to read between the lines and speculate about the sum:

• The exact wording in the FT was:
  • "Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros so the electric carmaker’s vehicles are counted in its fleet in order to avoid large fines for breaking tough new EU emissions rules."
    
  • "Analysts at Jefferies forecast FCA could face fines in excess of €2bn in 2021 when the new targets become law. "
• The Financial Times is owned by "The Nikkei" Japanese business media giant with opaque ownership - Japanese old money I suspect?
• The source of the story was FCA. To FCA this is probably a negative story, and they'd want to break it slowly, with a drip-drip of details.
• Tesla is probably under NDA until they must file financials. No big motivation for them to leak.
• "Hundreds of millions of euros" is 200m-900m. "Hundreds of" technically includes 200-999m, but above 500m the "more than half a billion" would be more appropriate.
• FCA's motivation is probably to downplay the figures: this is an extra cost. If it was only 200m then I'd expect them to leak that. If it was say 300m then they could say 'low hundreds of".
• FCA probably has no motivation to exaggerate the sum.
• Hence my guess: 400-600m euros, which is $450m-$670m.
• Less or more is possible as well, but I'd be surprised if it was below 300m: FCA would leak it immediately, plus it's too low compared to the looming 2 billion euros fine per year.

The big question: why keep this secret? It would come out in Tesla financials anyway.

Speculation only. Not advice. Might have to eat crow.

$450-670M???!!!!

@Fact Checking we're already on cloud 9. No need to go into the stratosphere!!

 

[mikevbf]

Agreed. The 2nd most interesting thing I heard was after he raved about his m3p test drive, he began to talk about a new car he test drove the day before this interview (starts at 55:36) "..there's a wheel hub company called Protean, and I drove their vehicle and I could not believe... I drove that thing, I was sitting at the stoplight, I put the pedal down I got thrown back into the seat and I went holy mackerel how fast am I going?? ...and I was at 90mph in a heartbeat."

Isn't Rivian using in wheel motors as well?

 

[Smokey4141]

Yeah, because the constant trolling by shorts on SA and twitter really add value to the discussion!!

You can't even read the $TSLA twitter thread anymore. It's total rubbish. Just look at Tesla short numero uno, Mr. Mark Spiegel. Insulting federal judges and spewing profanity all over twitter. Does this guy even have an ounce of manners or even intelligence?!

Mark makes some funny jokes......and Mark makes some bad (and cringe-worthy) jokes....
And I can appreciate that he can rub some people the wrong way...
I'll leave it at that...

 

[Fact Checking]

@Fact Checking we're already on cloud9. No need to go into the stratosphere!!

So this suggests it's in the $220m-$335m range:

The FT author followed up with a more precise price range: "Low triple digit million figure"
Patrick McGee on Twitter

So for me this implies the deal is more likely for 200-300M euros or $224-$336M dollars. (Assuming correct use of the word "hundreds" implying >200M)

Still a very nice source of income, and likely recurring.