Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Again my reading (with no actual knowledge of the EU policy) is that the 2021 figure is the estimated escalating cost. Ie: they're a few g/km over the current 120 g/km standard, and unless they get there emissions under control, they'll be seriously over the 90g/km std due to take effect by 2021.

Perhaps some of our European members can provide more color on EU emissions regs.
Paging @avoigt @hobbes @lklundin

Cheers!

Thanks for mentioning me - but I don´t know much about that, sorry. BTW, you´re forgetting quite a few other European members!

 

[jerry33]

Tesla is now prostituting itself for a "handful of cash", so that a struggling car maker corp. can continue producing their ass-backward stinker cars. With that, Tesla has become part of the problem it originally tried to solve. Way to go.

So, remember kids, be careful what you wish for!

Anyway. Even though the damage is already done, I sincerely hope that the EU will reject this sort of trickery; FCA should comply to EU fleet emission standard (or else pay penalties) and Tesla should focus on becoming profitable – preferably without making deals with Mephisto.

Those cars are going to be made whether or not Tesla takes their money. The only difference is that it helps the mission if Tesla takes the money.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Tesla is now prostituting itself for a "handful of cash", so that a struggling car maker corp. can continue producing their ass-backward stinker cars.

Something fate something something irony.

 

[Electroman]

Anyway. Even though the damage is already done, I sincerely hope that the EU will reject this sort of trickery;

What trickery? EU's goal is to raise the overall mpg across all cars driven in Europe and thus decrease CO2 levels and pollution.

FCU can increase their ratio of EVs vs. polluters, in two ways:

- by increasing the no. of EVs sold --> this is pipe dream
- decreasing the no. of ICE cars sold --> this is not only feasible, but good for EU citizens.

By forcing FCU to pay Tesla, EU actually achieves their goal quicker. This money will make Tesla to sell more EVs at a lower price NOW, and FCU to sell less ICE cars (and eventually go bankrupt, which is a good thing for EU citizens).

Believe me FCU is never going to make EVs in the hundreds of thousands that are good and affordable. They simply don't have what it takes to make EVs. So for EU, the best course of action is to convert all those ICE sales to EVs made by other companies, and inflict a slow death to FCU.

What better way than to give that money to Tesla and accelerate that process?

 

[Sean Wagner]

Just an Infon [germane drop of data in the threaded sea]:

According to experts I won't reject out of hand quoted by the German Handelsblatt, VW is on track to miss the EU 2021 goals to the tune of a fine of 1.4B EUR [ 1.6B USD ]. To avoid the penalty, they need to sell 400'000 EVs in Europe next year. Even if the numbers are off, they do provide a ballpark estimate.

I think it's greatly preferable that such moneys go to the vanguard of clean mobility than straight into government coffers. Not different in outcome from the CO2 emissions trading scheme of the EU.

Source [ Handelsblatt | 18.12.2018 ]:
STRENGERE EU-VORGABEN | So hart treffen die neuen CO2-Vorgaben BMW, Daimler und VW
https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/strengere-eu-vorgaben-so-hart-treffen-die-neuen-co2-vorgaben-bmw-daimler-und-vw/23168328.html

 

[Antares Nebula]

Boys and girls, what's happening? We all ready for the gap up on Monday?! Don't look down tomorrow!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Nikhil Chaudhary on Twitter
":#Etron came. A diff one. And it can't even compete with #Tesla's lower models. 2009- 'watch out, Tesla, Audi's E-tron is coming' Haha."

Cactus Capital on Twitter
"So this is okay by @SEC_Enforcement standard??? Audi can promise investors a Tesla competition so people buy their stocks then it rolls out a shittier EV that cannot compete and will cause investors to lose money???????????? Something is wrong with SEC!!!"

 

[scaesare]

@scaesare
It is from ARK Invest, their data so should be pretty clean, bolt surprised me also tho (upper right of picture)

Hmm... I agree that ARK seems to at least have their investment information straight. I dunno about this technical data though.

Just do the math, in order for the LR Model Y AWD to make it's purported 300 mile range, it would need a usable 86.2kWh pack. That implies something close to a 90kWh pack with buffer.

I'm not sure how likely that is in something with a footprint not much larger than a Model 3... but who knows?

 

[Mobius484]

Boys and girls, what's happening today? We all ready for the gap up on Monday?! Don't look down tomorrow!

Been a investor in tesla long enough, ill believe when it happens.. god I hope it happens. Cheers to the longs!

 

[hacer]

Could be. Rather than conspiracy I am inclined to believe the Commission and staff jump to the tune of the masters, GS, MS etc. Government lawyers in general are looking for the future gold ring at one of the investment banks, Wall Street law firm or corporate securities counsel. ...

Sounds like a conspiracy to me.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Lol!!!

Groggy T. Bear on Twitter

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Tesla is now prostituting itself for a "handful of cash", so that a struggling car maker corp. can continue producing their ass-backward stinker cars. With that, Tesla has become part of the problem it originally tried to solve. Way to go.

So, remember kids, be careful what you wish for!

Anyway. Even though the damage is already done, I sincerely hope that the EU will reject this sort of trickery; FCA should comply to EU fleet emission standard (or else pay penalties) and Tesla should focus on becoming profitable – preferably without making deals with Mephisto.

It's how the credit systems in the USA and China work. Tesla has been earning money selling credits to other manufacturers for years, particularly Honda and Toyota. (Toyota bought 88k 2017 credits from Tesla to add to their large balance, because 2017 credits travel.)

 

[Fact Checking]

So the FCA deal was on Feb 25th, right? Same day as the fate loves irony tweet.

Also the day the SEC sued, so it's hard to tell which one it refers to.

 

[seldon]

According to CarsofNight, however, sometime during the course of Q1 Panasonic installed and spun up 3 additional battery production lines, to increase the total number of lines to 13 rather than 10. Each of the new lines are also supposed to be more productive than the first 10 but they also figured out how to increase production from the original lines during this same timeframe. what's not clear is exactly when the new lines came online or how many batteries have been flowing into TE vs cars.

There is potential for significant growth in TE in Q4. Elon has mentioned several times that there will be a big ramp in TE and I think he mentioned that he eventually expects a similar margin to TM. In previous quarters TE was constrained by a lack of batteries/packs. However, Tesla sold 10K fewer cars in Q1 vs Q4 which means battery constraint may not be a factor in Q1. There also may be additional battery pack production capacity with the extra lines. What is the impact on revenue and earnings if the excess battery production goes into TE products? Can anyone do this calculation? My estimate is around $600M in additional revenue which would offset the shortfall TM deliveries. Does anyone have any insight into Powerwall and Powerpack deliveries or delivery times?

 

[Sean Wagner]

I'm not sure how likely that is in something with a footprint not much larger than a Model 3... but who knows?

Factor in another 3-7% battery progress?

 

[mongo]

So, FCA is saying - for the foreseeable future
- They won't make EVs
- They will try to make their cars more fuel efficient
- They will just keep paying Tesla (because that is cheaper than paying fines or building EVs)

The big groups that currently have no EV programs
- Toyota
- Honda
- FCA
- Ford

Did I miss anyone ? As the emissions regime gets tougher worldwide, all these groups will have to pay all their profits to Tesla

Doesn't Ford have the Mustang inspired EV of some body stule?

I didn’t see anything that defined how the pool emissions we computed. This is my guess, which would let some enterprising person estimate the number of Teslas that need to be sold in the EU to meet the emissions cap if they can research the variables:

View attachment 394697

Nice equation LaTeX?, I believe it is corrected based on

Except where notification is given under paragraph 3, the manufacturers in a pool in respect of which information is filed with the Commission shall be considered as one manufacturer for the purposes of meeting their obligations under Article 4. Monitoring and reporting information in respect of individual manufacturers as well as any pools will be recorded, reported and made available in the central register referred to in Article 8(4).

Good point and someone mentioned that Chrysler currently supplies the UPS truck fleet. Wasn't sure if "cf Deliver Van rumors" was intended to imply that.

By truck, did you mean commercial delivery van? The large UPS walk in vans (typical delivery truck) have bodys added by two companies (most Morgan Olson) on frames from Freightliner or Navistar.

Tesla is now prostituting itself for a "handful of cash", so that a struggling car maker corp. can continue producing their ass-backward stinker cars. With that, Tesla has become part of the problem it originally tried to solve. Way to go.

So, remember kids, be careful what you wish for!

Anyway. Even though the damage is already done, I sincerely hope that the EU will reject this sort of trickery; FCA should comply to EU fleet emission standard (or else pay penalties) and Tesla should focus on becoming profitable – preferably without making deals with Mephisto.

FCA indicated that without this they would need to continue producing diesels to lower their fleet emissions. So this is a win on that front.

Those cars are going to be made whether or not Tesla takes their money. The only difference is that it helps the mission if Tesla takes the money.

This!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Boys and girls, what's happening? We all ready for the gap up on Monday?! Don't look down tomorrow!

It's unlikely to gap up substantially as there is no knowledge of what has been paid.

Volumes are more important than an unknown cash payment.

 

[ggr]

For CARB ZEV credits the market is a 50% discount on the face value.

If you end up short a ZEV credit the CARB fine is $5k. Private sale ZEV credits are sold for $2.5k.

I would imagine that sets price expectations in the EU.

Tesla can say "We'll sell you a whole year's worth now for 50c/$, and true up at the end of the year, or you can buy monthly for 60c/$." In that scenario, it's better for FCA to borrow the money to pay up front. Note that once the deal is committed, Tesla could also borrow against the expected cash flow, so they can get access to a lot of cash now either way. But it's better for FCA to borrow than Tesla, because Tesla can count it as profit.

 

[AlMc]

Been a investor in tesla long enough, ill believe when it happens.. god I hope it happens. Cheers to the longs!

Ditto.

 

[dgodfrey]

Doesn’t matter, sales of Toyota Mirai is practically zero

As of about a year ago, there were only 5,000 FCV in California but they get double the credit of a BEV. Consider too that I believe the state of California put up the funding for the fueling infrastructure.
So to the original post, Honda and Toyota do get some ZEV credits on their own.