J
jbcarioca
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Actually many have not yet had the opportunity to buy any Tesla at all other than grey/gray market.A lot of 2016 deposit holders outside the USA - they have not had an opportunity to order the $35k SR yet.
Besides, both production volume and margins will continue to improve as time moves on, and as that happens a $35K model 3 becomes more important to Tesla, perhaps even lower prices than that down the track.
Most of those large potential countries for Model 3 are RHD, but many others with substantial potential have reservations but zero imports available now. Of course I am thinking of Argentina, Brazil and Chile but there are several high potential Eastern European countries with no Tesla sales today, as well as substantial Asian countries. We can readily assume that nearly all of those not presently served do not have such high potential as those now receiving deliveries but...if Tesla share of market vs primary luxury brands holds in those countries there would be annual sales of at >1000 per month for all models in many of them. Not too much, but many of these markets will produce high gross margins despite nearly all of them being mostly cheaper vehicles. For many of them Tesla will appeal very strongly to wealthier internationally savvy buyers, most fo whim have multiple higher end vehicles and/or multiple residences. Just as in Jordan or Russia, for example, enthusiasts can and will play instrumental roles in making that happen for Tesla.
Most useful market data by Model in most of these countries is either behind a paywall or not readily accessible. Thus I'll show data for Brazil for 1st quarter 2019 because i have it and have fairly substantial personal knowledge of importers (gray and authorized), manufacturers and customers.
In most analogous markets brand penetration is more readily available and applicable than is model data mostly because higher end vehicles are exceedingly likely to be in multi-vehicle households. The brand-level data is misleading in most such countries because many models considered entry level in the 'first world' are positioned, priced and equipped as entry-level-luxury vehicles in these countries. Common examples are Toyota Corolla, Ford Fusion, Honda Civic sedan as well as the majority of smaller SUV such as Toyota RAV-4 etc.
Tesla has already shown how easily they can penetrate 20-40 year-old tech-savvy well-educated people. Globally these people are prime buyers of everything from smartphones (ok, anybody who buys an iPhone or Samsung tends to fit the category. They often don't appear as major forces in less wealthy markets but they're easily observed. So, most market-data-trained people lose this market entirely because they travel internationally and tend to buy personal imports more frequently than in their local markets. Cars, though, are most often bought locally.
So, Brazil auto data 1st quarter 2019:
Focus2move| Brazil Vehicles Market - Facts & Data 2019
The total recorded of prime high end brands (MB, BMW, Volvo, Land Rover, Jaguar, Ferrari) is 8965 for 1st quarter, of which 86 were Ferrari.
FWIW, I know two Ferrari owners here, both of whom have many cars, both of whom have grey-market Teslas. One person of whom I know has a Model X , Model S, and Model 3. Why is that relevant? Because those people can readily facilitate the building of infrastructure (they've done it already by putting a handful of Tesla chargers in although none are officially recognized by Tesla. That process is precisely what happened in Russia with The Moscow Tesla Club:
Moscow Tesla Club - продажа и обслуживание автомобилей Tesla в России
It happened in New Zealand until it reached critical mass and Tesla officially entered the country.
Concluding my interminable post I think it highly likely that there are >30 countries that will absorb ~3000 of more Teslas of all models per annum. In aggregate they will absorb at least 100,000 vehicles per year, with a strong shift towards high value models. Of course, key such markets for early penetration are the Arab Gulf and other Middle East countries.