This is why I still believe "they're having trouble switching the production line between variants" is certain. If they're losing two days every time they switch, that would be enough reason to wipe out a variant.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Regarding EU, see the earlier discussion regarding FCA/Tesla pooling. Tesla is going to get extra cash for every sale in the EU, and the SR+ would not only increase sales, but do so using fewer battery cells (which Tesla still maintains is their chief bottleneck).
The others are subjective, so I’ll leave those alone(ok, one comment: decreasing prices means lack of demand and raising prices means lack of demand and increasing number of models means lack of demand and decreasing models means lack of demand? Is there any possible positive sign of demand?)
They said leasing was coming. It wasn’t unexpected. And leasing is a mixed bag: it increasing the serviceable market but also hurts short term cash position. Offering it also means that they have plenty of cash on hand(which, thanks to the bears/press, was *not* baked in recently). The fact that it’s being offered with favorable terms for Tesla and a massive caveat for those leasing is also a big positive sign for demand vs. what was expected.
It was a mistake to promise a fixed $35k price in the first place. That's why Tesla is not making the same mistake with Model Y.
To be fair, when Elon mentioned $35k a few years ago, he said $35k plus inflation. There has been significant inflation especially for wage and battery materials. Of course shorts will spread FUD but ignore the inflation part.
The original promise was a decent 200 mile EV at $35k plus inflation. If they indeed offer a decent 200 mile EV at $39.5k, that would be basically what was promised. However, lets take a closer look of the Standard Plus at $39.5k:
1. #1 in safety: based on NHTSA test results, Tesla Model 3 stands alone with a below 6% chance of serious injury. This number is lower than any other car that has ever been produced. This is a huge achievement.
2. It has 240 mile range instead of 200 mile.
3. 12-way power adjustable heated front seats, premium seat material, instead of manual seats.
4. Keyless entry
5. User profile memory and automatic folding side mirrors
6. Keyless entry
7. High quality audio
8. Maps & navigation software
9. Glass roof, LED fog lamps
10. Autopilot
11. Lifetime over the air software update
12. Unmatched driving fun
None of these items were promised for the base Model 3, they are included without additional cost. It suppose to be a decent economic 200 mile EV, instead, they delivered "the ultimate driving machine".
Also, I heard they will start to deliver $35k Model 3 this weekend.
Edit: If $10k gasoline savings and $3750 tax incentive is considered, this car's cost is significantly lower than ICE vehicles. A friend of mine told me each month he spends $4k on gasoline - on one of his three vehicles.
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I can't imagine that the Tesla Network would be feasible without a person in the driver's seat. I don't think people are ready to take drives in fully autonomous cars without a person at the wheel.
But for these "co-pilots", Tesla could have a really good recruiting pitch compared to Uber or Lyft. Instead of using your own car, you rent a Tesla and use that for taking passengers. You can use the car for whatever you want when not driving for the network as long as you drive for the network a minimum of N hours per week. Tesla could then let the driver keep more of the fare and reduce the cost per ride since they will make money on the car itself. For the driver, they don't have to pay for gas or maintenance like they would with an ICE car and get to drive a Tesla. Basically they subsidize the cost of each ride with the money generated from the car itself.
But for these "co-pilots", Tesla could have a really good recruiting pitch compared to Uber or Lyft. Instead of using your own car, you rent a Tesla and use that for taking passengers. You can use the car for whatever you want when not driving for the network as long as you drive for the network a minimum of N hours per week. Tesla could then let the driver keep more of the fare and reduce the cost per ride since they will make money on the car itself. For the driver, they don't have to pay for gas or maintenance like they would with an ICE car and get to drive a Tesla. Basically they subsidize the cost of each ride with the money generated from the car itself.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So basically, this precludes you from ever going on vacation.
That would be a model 2's mission, starting $25k, without ap/fsd hw, that simply sells 5M units/year by fuel savings.
Anstandswauwau
Member
Yeah, I kinda agree. Moral and sympathy are not part of the economic equation.
However, I believe there's one massive difference between Tesla and all the examples you've listed above:
I'd say it was mostly ordinary people who hated MS, FB, Apple, AT&T, Exxon and co. They wanted to see them trip and fall, but they didn't – most likely because the Street stood firmly behind them.
With Tesla it's – for whatever reason – the media, Street and other powerful entities who want to bring it down. Completely different dynamics at play IMO.
good point. Obviously I haven't fully thought this through. You'd have to allow people to take some amount of vacation. But that is a minor detail.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
No, it just generates "lost income" and "running expense" during vacation. Which is the case with pretty much any contractor job or other self-employment activity.
Anstandswauwau
Member
Can you confirm that SR is off-menu in EU/China, too? Curious to know.
Singer3000
Member
It is a leap to get from 35GWh “capacity” for Pana (whatever that means) to a 35GWh take-or-pay commitment by Tesla. The offtake contract between Tesla and Pana was heavily redacted last time I looked. Have I missed an update?
I agree. I said this earlier. Why on earth is everyone taking what Reuters said as gospel? They could have misunderstood timeframes. Someone at Panasonic might have said they have physical plant capacity for 35 GWh, but forgot to mention they don’t have enough qualified employees for it. Unless I see a direct quote from Panasonic saying “we are now producing cells at 35 GWh yearly output”, I’m not believing it. Note that the Reuters statement wasn’t even a quote.
Um... did anyone notice the mother of all MMD's just now? Any thoughts what caused the shorts to dump so hard?
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Backstory: Three cameras, two ladders - snapping Tesla's Elon Musk at court - Reuters
Backstory: Three cameras, two ladders - snapping Tesla's Elon Musk at court - Reuters
This showed up in my Robinhood news feed, but what the heck does it have anything to do with TSLA?
Except being an obvious attempt to trip algos to think it’s something bad? Snapping Elon at court? Must have been the judge, time to sell!!!
Backstory: Three cameras, two ladders - snapping Tesla's Elon Musk at court - Reuters
This showed up in my Robinhood news feed, but what the heck does it have anything to do with TSLA?
Except being an obvious attempt to trip algos to think it’s something bad? Snapping Elon at court? Must have been the judge, time to sell!!!
A few thoughts:
Regardless of the rest of what I wrote, this dichotomy is pretty rich:
- I'm completely fine with the $35k car going the way of the dodo. It's not ideal, but folks did get a chance to order it if they really wanted it. Further, what they are delivering for the base $39,500 price absolutely demolishes the promises from the 3/31/16 event for the $35k car. +25 miles of range (240 vs 215 promised), leatherette seating, upgraded audio, glass roof, Autopilot. It's a hell of a car, and it gives the opportunity for some future software unlock revenue to SR+ range and MCU feature set. Would it be better if they could profitably deliver the $35k car right now? Absolutely. But they clearly cannot, and are doing what they view as best for the company. Update, pre-posting: A spokesperson has confirmed that the $35k car is still available off-menu without Autopilot, contrary to the announcement last night. See my next point.
- The comms team really needs to step it up. This isn't news, but it's actually getting worse on the official comms front, not better. I'm not even referring to the volume of changes--clearly the company is reacting in near real-time in an attempt to best balance production costs/efficiency and demand. But the communication is absolutely atrocious. For example, last night's announcement is not even internally consistent. Here's a direct quote: "All Tesla vehicles now come with Autopilot bundled as a standard feature for less than the prior cost of the option." No, they don't. Only the 3 reflects that change. S/X/Y still show it as an option, and a spokesperson has apparently confirmed to The Verge that it also doesn't apply to the 3 SR-. I put more effort into proofing my company announcements for consistency and accuracy than Tesla does, and I assure you that multiple orders of magnitude fewer people read mine. It's one thing for the individual company-to-customer comms to be as screwed up as they are (and to be sure, they still are--no reply to my voicemail to my service center from 8 days ago being just the latest of many for me personally), but for official blog posts to be this bad is a special kind of disorganization.
- For the folks complaining about 'broken promise' when the $35k 3 goes fully away (which I think is inevitable in the medium term given these announcements): meh. They did bring the car to market. I'd rather this have been a limited-time promise kept than have it hamper their ability to continue moving toward self-sustainability going forward. As far as questionable promises from automakers are concerned, this one wouldn't even rate a mention. It's also not a malicious change.
Regardless of the rest of what I wrote, this dichotomy is pretty rich:
- Tesla, 2/28: $35k Model 3 available now. We're shifting to online sales only and closing all but a 'small number' of stores.
- Tesla, 42 days later: All Tesla vehicles now come with Autopilot bundled at a discount ($35k car is no longer available, although actually it mostly kind of is even though we literally just said it's not). If you want the SR- software-locked battery, call us or visit one of our several hundred stores.
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