Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

Nothing has changed with tesla, they keep marching forward. And the transition to EV is now inevitable. The following is a portion of an article from TopGear comparing a BMW M3 to a performance Model 3 (M3 ironically):
"The very first iteration of an electric mid-sized sedan to have a performance option beating out the longstanding stalwart of fossil fueled sports sedans … does not bode well for the old tech. After all, the fossil technology has already benefited from over a century of refinements and improvements. If we look 5 or 10 years down the road, what refinements and improvements will EV technology gain, to further the performance lead over fossils?"

 

[mongo]

Keeping an eye on TSLA, will liquidate all remaining 45 out of 400 shares on a move upwards.
I've taken a position in ARKK and will sit on that for awhile and see how it goes.
I'm not anticipating touching TSLA again for another 60 days minimum to ensure that all losses are fully booked, after that I will move into short term plays around big news like earnings reports to harvest short term gains. I have no further interest in holding TSLA long term until S&P 500 inclusion seems imminent or GF3 approaches completion, so likely Q4 2019 at the earliest before I consider ever holding TSLA again.
Sorry Elon, you treat your shareholders like crap and you're a massive loose cannon. It's put up or shut up time in terms of actually proving you create shareholder value.
Anyone want to play ROKU with me going into earnings? Could be a fun flip for quick gains.

k
thx
bai

 

[Drumheller]

Just bought 201 more shares. I believe in the mission, and I believe it can end up making investors a bunch of money, but I definitely felt nervous buying these. Planning to keep those in at least one year, and leave the older shares in for the long term.

 

[Boomer19]

Keeping an eye on TSLA, will liquidate all remaining 45 out of 400 shares on a move upwards.
I've taken a position in ARKK and will sit on that for awhile and see how it goes.
I'm not anticipating touching TSLA again for another 60 days minimum to ensure that all losses are fully booked, after that I will move into short term plays around big news like earnings reports to harvest short term gains. I have no further interest in holding TSLA long term until S&P 500 inclusion seems imminent or GF3 approaches completion, so likely Q4 2019 at the earliest before I consider ever holding TSLA again.
Sorry Elon, you treat your shareholders like crap and you're a massive loose cannon. It's put up or shut up time in terms of actually proving you create shareholder value.
Anyone want to play ROKU with me going into earnings? Could be a fun flip for quick gains.

and when all that stuff is known, the stk price will be where?
don’t trade on emotions

 

[Cobbler]

 

[bzbee]

Alex on Auto: Model 3 Standard Range Review

 

[dc_h]

Regarding Panasonic building 2170 capacity in Japan, this concerns me because it means they don't see a clear route to optimizing the already installed capacity at GF1. One issue may be finding enough quality workers in Nevada. GF expansion must have soaked up a large portion of the work force already.

I don’t think that is true. I think Tesla wants to move to a single form factor for assembly and development optimization. If Panasonic wants Shanghai business they’ll need to convert japan to 2170. Long term sending cells from Japan to the USA probably doesn’t make sense.
Wonder if the Glovis ship stop from sfo to japan is related to changes?

 

[dc_h]

Regarding Panasonic building 2170 capacity in Japan, this concerns me because it means they don't see a clear route to optimizing the already installed capacity at GF1. One issue may be finding enough quality workers in Nevada. GF expansion must have soaked up a large portion of the work force already.

I don’t think that is true. I think Tesla wants to move to a single form factor for assembly and development optimization. If Panasonic wants Shanghai business they’ll need to convert japan to 2170. Long term sending cells from Japan to the USA probably doesn’t make sense.
Wonder if the Glovis ship stop from sfo to japan is related to changes?

 

[NicoV]

Just came back from a vacation in France country side. Have been in the U.S. for 20 years, it scared me to death for me to drive on their narrow road.

You should have tried that with a Model X!

 

[Duffer]

I get your point, but it's more complex than that. If the investors get fed up with the volatility (read: unwarranted SP drops) of the company, they start selling, dropping the price lower. Workers compensation is partly in stock equity, and for them seeing the stock price drop when they're busting their asses is demoralizing, and that's again bad for the company. Severe SP drops can ultimately lead to the company becoming insolvent, artificially so but still. And so the way operations are run is just as important as the cutting-edge technology employed by the company, the level of talent and the drive of the man in charge. It's a package deal, and all parts are important.

Yes, there have been some mistakes made by Elon and/or Tesla that have influenced the SP. However, there are 2 things outside of Elon/Tesla's control that you should keep in mind.

1) Who is trading shares and when. If you haven't done so already I suggest that you read through @Papafox daily market thread. His analysis of the volatility, based on the SP and who is trading and when explains what is going on quite clearly.

2) Think about who is making huge profits on this volatility. Hint, Market Makers

 

[RobStark]

One other gap in Tesla's offerings, the ultra premium trims.

An SR+ has the same interior and exterior as my P3D. A BMW 328 does not have same exterior and interior as an M3. Not to mention the super high end lines such as the Alpinas.

Alpina Burkard Bovensiepen GmbH & Co. KG(Alpina) is a separate company from Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW).

Unplugged Performance is a tuning company that is attempting to be analogous to what Alpina is to BMW.

 

[RobStark]

I put a buy order at 250 just in case, but did not think it would fill today...
Oh well, now I added my contribution of this year RRSP into my TSLA stock core position.

Me too.

 

[dqd88]

One of the things I want to suggest after seeing the FSD demo is to be nicer to employees you perceive as stupid. And less quick at pointing out their failures in front of others.

I must have missed this. What happened?

 

[Doggydogworld]

If the Maxwell tech works, there would be no need to switch to 2170s. Improved 18650s would allow reuse of the current pack/ module design. Including a capacity improvement even if they deleted one or both of the front double stack modules.

DBE doesn't change energy density, it's just a different way to coat electrodes with the same NCA/graphite/whatever. Maxwell makes some claims about longer cycle life, but the charts I saw in their paper didn't look that impressive. They also claim DBE can do thicker electrodes than wet slurries. Even if true, thick electrodes bring their own issues and it's not at all clear to me you could wind them into small cylinders. DBE may work at scale and reduce costs a little, but people are getting carried away w.r.t density. Again.

I've never seen such insanity about the true value of a company.

Chanos says the same thing

 

[mongo]

DBE doesn't change energy density, it's just a different way to coat electrodes with the same NCA/graphite/whatever. Maxwell makes some claims about longer cycle life, but the charts I saw in their paper didn't look that impressive. They also claim DBE can do thicker electrodes than wet slurries. Even if true, thick electrodes bring their own issues and it's not at all clear to me you could wind them into small cylinders. DBE may work at scale and reduce costs a little, but people are getting carried away w.r.t density. Again.

Maxwell has demonstrated 300Wh/kg, with a path to 500Wh/kg. Unless they are really messing up the density, that means more energy in the same volume.
Tesla cells are currently ~250Wh/kg.
/The Ultracapacitors, Electrodes, & Battery Manufacturing Tech Tesla Gets With Maxwell Technologies | CleanTechnica

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

The wedge continues down. $240 is a pretty strong support. After that with enough pressure from the channel we will see $220 sometime. The stock will go back to the previous range bound channel before model 3 and we see $200 to $250. Discounting any benefit from model 3 for now.

By the way, I hope Elon is now more receptive to suggestions after being humbled by this.

One of the things I want to suggest after seeing the FSD demo is to be nicer to employees you perceive as stupid. And less quick at pointing out their failures in front of others.

Just promote a COO and this should all go away.

 

[Cobbler]

Maxwell has demonstrated 300Wh/kg, with a path to 500Wh/kg. Unless they are really messing up the density, that means more energy in the same volume.
Tesla cells are currently ~250Wh/kg.
/The Ultracapacitors, Electrodes, & Battery Manufacturing Tech Tesla Gets With Maxwell Technologies | CleanTechnica

Question: If energy density increases with the dry-electrode, will Tesla reduce the cell-count and keep the capacity of the pack the same?

 

[Foghat]

How is the rest of the auto industry going to make it through the gauntlets Tesla has overcome in reaching scale with electric vehicles and fleet autonomy?

They all have to go through it. Electric at scale not even the same thing as ICE. Not even close.

They are not even at start up phase yet and they are scared out of their gourds.

What is happening right now is financial combat. They are utilizing financial tools (which includes media) to attack Tesla. It’s clear as day.

They want the auto pilot data, they want all the data. They want the talent. They want to organization. They want it all and are actively attempting to create the conditions to do it.

They don’t care if Elon is there or not, they just want take away his control, thus his and his team’s ownership. There shares, their voting power. They want control of the company in order to stop Tesla from making them bankrupt or have to start over again with all electric companies.

Since many live in the fake news financial media bubble, including many so called hedge funds that invest in Tesla, it’s difficult for them to live in reality. I guess it’s similar to Waymo thinking simulating reality is good enough for self driving. For some reason real world data doesn’t make it into their decision process which failure seems to be the end state.

This is exactly the same for what’s going on right now with Wall Street.

Driving the car is the reality. 5 star across the board safety rating is the reality. Auto pilot safety record is the reality. Tesla as a real-time learning institution is the reality. For all the sand pounding for Q1, Tesla had an amazing learning curve which had only strengthened it as an organization. The ability to execute under such challenging conditions would leave all the other autos in ruin. But, Tesla is only more capable to deliver on global demand, by magnitudes compared to just 18 months ago. Where the rest of the auto industry actually sold more cars 18 months ago then they are today. They are not better now then they were then.

Elon’s Tesla is a once in a lifetime organization. Combat is happening to stop it and making you think night is day and day is night is apart of it.

Someone once asked ‘what is it like outside the simulation?’

A wise sage replied ‘reality.”

Reality, Tesla is massively growing,organizing to meet insatiable demand for its products and operates at a speed few have ever experienced. No pain, no gain.

 

[RobStark]

How long did Model T have an essentially unchanged body style?

Until market share tanked.

 

[ZachF]

Maxwell has demonstrated 300Wh/kg, with a path to 500Wh/kg. Unless they are really messing up the density, that means more energy in the same volume.
Tesla cells are currently ~250Wh/kg.
/The Ultracapacitors, Electrodes, & Battery Manufacturing Tech Tesla Gets With Maxwell Technologies | CleanTechnica

250wh/kg to 300wh/kg is a 20% increase, with that you could push the S (LR/SR) to 420/370 while actually reducing pack size ~10%, provided volume doesn't change much.

A 20% increase would push the M3 to 400/330 with the same pack size.