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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Somewhat unrelated thought: The Y still shows up with normal Autopilot being $3k... I wonder when/if that's going to be folded in as standard, like the other cars...

I have a feeling Tesla is not requiring autopilot bundled with the car on the website configurator for now to show the car as being available for less. When the car is finally available for delivery (or if Tesla has a cash crunch), they will announce about 1-2 months in advance that all orders moving forward will be bundled with it. Seems like that is SOP with Tesla.

By the way, I think Tesla so far has booked far less pre-orders for the Y than they did with the 3. Otherwise, they would have had a counter just like last time showing how well they did.
 
I have a hard time seeing how they will not be ”profitable” with record deliveries, HW3, FCA etc. Maybe they intend to kill the wave and that is the one time event that will push them to not make a profit in Q2...

Well, they said cash flow positive, just GAAP loss. May or may not be included, but they’ll also have to retrofit HW3 for all their existing FSD-equipped cars. Should be something like 500,000 of them, right? That would certainly offset the savings for a while.
 
One real concern I have is how much all these bad news coverage cumulatively stopped or delayed potential customers from purchasing a Tesla. Repeat lies enough number of times until it becomes true...?

The message that Tesla is in trouble is on people's phone and computer and TV, and most people won't buy a car from a company they think might be failing. Tesla needs to take steps to change the public perception or sales will fall.
 
I have a feeling Tesla is not requiring autopilot bundled with the car on the website configurator for now to show the car as being available for less. When the car is finally available for delivery (or if Tesla has a cash crunch), they will announce about 1-2 months in advance that all orders moving forward will be bundled with it. Seems like that is SOP with Tesla.

By the way, I think Tesla so far has booked far less pre-orders for the Y than they did with the 3. Otherwise, they would have had a counter just like last time showing how well they did.

Tesla absolutely booked less Ys than last time. We should expect this to be the case because

1. It's now 2.5k vs a 1k amount
2. People find that it's a bad idea to pre-order a car that might get delayed. It's impossible to time these things with your lease ending
3. Pre-orders didn't get you the car that much sooner
4. The model 3 exist today

The Y will sell like hot cakes however and I'm not worried.
 
I have a feeling Tesla is not requiring autopilot bundled with the car on the website configurator for now to show the car as being available for less. When the car is finally available for delivery (or if Tesla has a cash crunch), they will announce about 1-2 months in advance that all orders moving forward will be bundled with it. Seems like that is SOP with Tesla.

By the way, I think Tesla so far has booked far less pre-orders for the Y than they did with the 3. Otherwise, they would have had a counter just like last time showing how well they did.

I think they very likely got far fewer, for a few reasons, but in fairness, the counter thing didn’t work out well for them last time. Sure, they got a big SP boost initially, but the FUD around it lasted for years afterwards.
 
So, we have a couple of days to see if SEC news is appreciated, after that Insideevs April numbers should probably make a difference (maybe come out as soon as May 1, Wed). Per Elon, "we are tracking in April to the largest amount of deliveries from month 1 in the history of the company.", so, hopefully, maybe close to 30k to validate the Q2 delivery estimate?

I'm wondering if today's bloodbath would be an incentive for Elon to show some profit in Q2, which he could do by simply postponing some of the pipeline filling until Q3. I.e. don't take a 100% hit in Q2.

I guess it means the largest "month 1" of any quarter. I don't think April delivery can be more than Dec 2018 or March 2019, not even close. If we really get that many, we would hear a lot of noise on the internet about delivery. Also as someone pointed out, InsideEV number is US only.
 
Started buying in May 2013 at $101, continued buying right up to $375 (ouch) and still buying on the way down. Haven't sold a single share and don't plan to until we hit ARKK's forecast of $4,000 share price in 5 yrs...
I wish there were more investors like you on this board. I believe your discipline will be rewarded.
 
One real concern I have is how much all these bad news coverage cumulatively stopped or delayed potential customers from purchasing a Tesla. Repeat lies enough number of times until it becomes true...?

Well, I just went through the drive-through, and the 17-year-old girl working there knew all about Teslas, appreciated the white interior and said it was going to be her first car.