Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

I am unsure if this means anything but after I cancelled my by now useless(*) Model 3 reservation Saturday, my 1k € had been deposited to my account this morning, so within 4 business (or probably just 3 since I guess yesterday's Worker's Day was not actually a business day).

So Kudos to Tesla for expediting the cancellation.

(*) A Tesla Sales Advisor could not help me with my issue that I as a day one reservation holder should in effect put down 3k € to order, when anyone could walk in from the street and pay 2k € to order. So my only option for not being left with the feeling of being unfairly treated was to cancel the reservation. Also, having lately done my best to lower my average buying price of TSLA, I must admit that my liquidity is kind of low just now...

 

[PhaseWhite]

Cap raise literally makes this a much better buy at $248 than $231. Sentiment can now focus on the positives, growth and new products. Buying with both hands and feet

I also pulled the trigger today increasing my stake 50% I am glad someone finally talked Elon into raising though I wish they had done it earlier on the back of the Q3 or Q4. Just as I and others predicted, the stock popped on the cap raise by more than the dilution...

 

[lklundin]

For those telling me how deluded I am that FSD is the next bet the company, this is exactly what I had in mind when I said it.



Keep in mind the entire event was centered on the investment community. While bet the company may be a little bit of a reach, the point is this is the next big thing they are working on.

I’m sure it takes a little more work than two coders in the back corner office drinking Soylent solve.

Nonsense.

In order to achieve a fast ramp-up of the Model 3, Tesla had to both make massive CapEx for production means and instruct suppliers to deliver parts for the ramped up production speed - and this at a point in time, when it was unknown how much time could be required to actually ramp up. So any failure in this uncharted ramping territory would incur massive cost, with not income.

That could have driven the company into insolvency - hence the creativity with the Sprung Structure.

While immensely complex, the CapEx required for the FSD software development is peanuts (and the hardware is already successfully deployed).

In fact, while I could imagine that Karparthy (and some of his key team members) could ask for an absolutely enormous salary, there could easily be a clause in their contract regarding failure to deliver... In which case Tesla would just be an immensely successful BEV maker.

 

[AlexS]

Paging @KarenRei Seems like Tesla has opened up 5 job positions in Iceland. Search for Jobs | Tesla Europe

Also it seems that Poland and Czech Republic are going online soon. Come on Tesla, Estonia also need you, we have also law for FSD. Testing is allowed on all roads if safety driver is behind the wheel or remotely monitoring the car to take over control.

 

[Singuy]

if Elon is so deluded on FSD that he's gonna bet the company on it, then I hope he makes it clear ASAP because frankly he is not credible in the least when it comes to autonomy.

But I think he's smarter than that and it's just one part of the plan. Company will not be worse off if they can't set up robotaxis.

Also you have Jobs's views on hoarding cash wrong.

Elon makes what clear?

1. All non-limited edition Teslas come with some sort of AP
2. Elon has been talking about FSD since AP1
3. All current Teslas are being trained for FSD
4. Developed their own inhouse FSD computer
5. When asked what the in cabin camera is for in the M3s, Elon said it's for ride hailing services
6. Actively putting hardware in every Tesla ever made REGARLESS if they are paid for or not by the customer for NN training.
7. Knowingly install Nvidia GPUs for NN training fully expecting to spend millions retrofitting and replacing such GPU.

So you think Elon needs to be even MORE clear that he's not treating FSD as some kind of minor side project?

 

[2virgule5]

Source?

Seems that Elon indeed wanted both systems in for a smooth transition (unclear if he meant Tesla’s future one or nVidia’s).

Source: https://www.inverse.com/amp/article/28218-musk-call-tesla-mobileye-autopilot

 

[KarenRei]

I'm okay with Elon being overly optimistic about FSD for the simple reason that I don't see them doing anything that they can't back out of. For example, their plan to keep all of the off-lease inventory for themselves as a robotaxi fleet: sure, they could do that, if FSD is ready for it. If not? They just let owners buy them / resell them used like any other car company. They're not locked into their current strategy.

So long as there's no lock-in, there's no harm.

 

[SO16]

Tesla made the local news again in West Michigan!

But not for anything good.

“Tesla is raising 2 billion dollars after posting a 700 MILLION dollar loss in the first quarter of this year to help their balance sheet”. And boy did they ever stress the 700 million dollar loss portion.

*sigh*

Tesla really needs to get these losses behind them.

 

[InstiTes]

Better late than never. Glad Tesla finally decided to do this. Obviously dumb to do it here instead of last year but the reality is the incremental dilution here is negligible raising here versus $300+ given the longer term upside potential.

Think the barrage of negative media should die down considerably now. The reality is that the (completely corrupt and in desperate need of regulatory reform) game of short sellers is largely to cause a run on the bank. Target companies that need to tap the capital markets and disseminate enough fraudulently negative news to create a circular upwards spiral in the company’s cost of equity. With this raise that nonsense ends. No more hit pieces on how Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy trying to scare consumers from buying the product or drive the stock down or how they don’t have enough money to invest in their products and continue to accelerate the innovation flywheel.

Now it’s just a bet on the company’s ability to innovate and grow. If shorts want to bet against the products of Tesla, that’s totally cool but doubt it ends well for them.

Quite frankly they should probably upsize the offering. The institutional demand is there. Leave no doubt in people’s mind that this company is well capitalized and if you want to bet for or against it, you’re betting for or against the Model 3 being the greatest / most innovative consumer product of the last decade.

Now they just need to hit their guidance to start re-establishing credibility and stock will be just fine. Been a rough run but better days are ahead (could be wrong though!).

Also they should start advertising, particularly outside of their core states, but that’s a different topic. Let’s get through one irrational principle predicated on hubris (not raising capital) at a time.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Seems that Elon indeed wanted both systems in for a smooth transition (unclear if he meant Tesla’s future one or nVidia’s).

Source: https://www.inverse.com/amp/article/28218-musk-call-tesla-mobileye-autopilot

This is regarding using both Mobileye and Nvidia's chips together in HW2 in late 2016. This would have made complete sense. Mobileye's hardware with Mobileye's vision output + Nvidia's hardware with Tesla's Vision output + Tesla's driving policy. This would have been a much smoother transition and Mobileye's system could have been used to train Tesla vision.
But it would make no sense for Tesla to have ever considered using Mobileye in HW3 with Tesla's own neural net chip.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think this is spot on and I think it is becoming more and more clear as Tesla starts to make real money.

Elon has said the Model 3 was the last bet the company challenge. It now sounds like autonomous driving is the new bet the company challenge.

Definitely the anti Steve Jobs thinking of hoarding piles of cash. Elon views money as a means to and end and nothing else.

Disagree with para 2, sentence 2. Otherwise like.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla made the local news again in West Michigan!

But not for anything good.

“Tesla is raising 2 billion dollars after posting a 700 MILLION dollar loss in the first quarter of this year to help their balance sheet”. And boy did they ever stress the 700 million dollar loss portion.

*sigh*

Tesla really needs to get these losses behind them.

Products that generate meaningful revenue currently out

1. Model 3
2. S/X

Products that will overtake Model 3/S/X's revenue combined

1. Model Y
2. Solar Roof
3. Semi

Product that will generate more revenue than everything listed combined.
FSD/Robo-taxi

If you zoom out and look at Tesla in decades, Tesla's revenue is really at the beginning of an exponential curve. So yes, losses will be expected for a growth company.

 

[JusRelax]

Products that generate meaningful revenue currently out

1. Model 3
2. S/X

Products that will overtake Model 3/S/X's revenue combined

1. Model Y
2. Solar Roof
3. Semi

Product that will generate more revenue than everything listed combined.
FSD/Robo-taxi

If you zoom out and look at Tesla in decades, Tesla's revenue is really at the beginning of an exponential curve. So yes, losses will be expected for a growth company.

I think if you change 'revenue' to 'profit', it works better. But yes, I think this helps to put everything in perspective.

 

[dqd88]

Although news of a capital raise are out, I actually thought it made sense when Elon Musk on Autonomy Investor day said something along the lines of Tesla not really being able to grow even faster if it had more money.

If new machinery or similar could make the same employee more productive, then that CapEx would provide additional growth.

But if a new employee has to be trained, then it may not be possible to grow much faster than Tesla's already insane, annual 50% (IIRC).

Good point. They are limited by the "weakest link", for example, a mineral bottleneck for batteries.

What I'm suggesting is growing through replication using the Tesla template, similar to how restaurants grow. Easier said than done i know.

 

[dqd88]

Products that generate meaningful revenue currently out

1. Model 3
2. S/X

Products that will overtake Model 3/S/X's revenue combined

1. Model Y
2. Solar Roof
3. Semi

Product that will generate more revenue than everything listed combined.
FSD/Robo-taxi

If you zoom out and look at Tesla in decades, Tesla's revenue is really at the beginning of an exponential curve. So yes, losses will be expected for a growth company.

Assuming you are right (which I tend to think)...
The question is, when is the ideal time to buy?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla hiring accelerates at Fremont factory and at retail locations

They went from 48.8k employees to 40.8k in Q1 and now they "accelerate hiring"? Ugh.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I'm a bit disappointed that Tesla / Elon have given in to the Wall St banksters and are doing another cap raise ... would rather they found any other way to do it if it was needed than to give those lowlifes another dime.

Since the announcement of the cap raise boosted the stock up a bit, and if stays around or a bit above this level for a while, does that make it more likely that the MXWL holders who don't seem to understand that TSLA is their only hope at any price decide to go ahead and tender their shares?

Though it sounded like a done deal per the ER (waiting on SEC approvals), some in this thread have expressed concerns that it might fail due to MXWL holders holding out for a better deal (which will probably never come).

 

[Maitri982]

Ok...musk is really all in on FSD: Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company

 

[Carl Raymond]

For those telling me how deluded I am that FSD is the next bet the company, this is exactly what I had in mind when I said it.



Keep in mind the entire event was centered on the investment community. While bet the company may be a little bit of a reach, the point is this is the next big thing they are working on.

I’m sure it takes a little more work than two coders in the back corner office drinking Soylent to solve.

You are confusing milk and cream. There is plenty of value add in having the sensor suite and the best NN computer. Safest car. Most relaxing to drive car. etc. Worst case, the project keeps the cars at the top of the desirability list. Best case, we all win the lottery. There is NO bet-the-company here as the worst case is still net positive.

 

[30seconds]

Really? Riding on a trailer is harder on a vehicle than hitting potholes, curbs, junk on the road, etc? I think not.

maybe they are made in China and there is no need to bring them to the US to ship them back