(Rainy day editorial for the bored)
One interesting fact to me is basically nobody knows how to tie large current financial losses together with promises of the future in some kind of objective scientific valuation. Tesla can theoretically lose 2 Billion dollars a year if everything is looking great as investment for decades of dominance (itself a hallucination of consensus -- no one can predict the future accurately). Netflix is negative 3.5B$ in cash per year and they are doing great because there is high confidence in their future.
That makes this less a game about numbers and more a game about perception and human bias and more specifically, mammalian status. Tesla is getting crapped on because in status games the biggest most valuable game for hunting is the individual that historically has high status but is in the process of falling off their pedestal. The people attacking Tesla are mostly perceiving the opportunity to lay claim to reputation for themselves by predicting ahead of time that Tesla will fail, as well as landing some blows on the way down. And Tesla has fallen enough that they don't even have to be rigorous anymore in their attacks ("if you aim at the king, don't miss" -- but it doesn't apply here anymore).
Within a status lens a lot of things become clear. For one thing, complaining about FUD and mistreatment is itself low status and doesn't do anything to earn respect. It's particularly bad when Tesla PR and Elon do it, but the fanbase shouldn't either. Second, the most natural reaction for someone who has lost status is to enter 'depression' which is basically slinking back and trying to be quiet and do the 'right thing' ('work hard, cut costs, sell cars'). So you have a catch-22 where actual execution isn't necessarily even the way out especially if it's marginal. You still have to execute of course, ultimately that matters the most but doing your job can't look like your 'solution to a problem', it is supposed to look effortless. Elon/Tesla clearly doesn't make it look effortless.
If Tesla can shock with outperformance like last Q3 or - edited for Game of Thrones spoiler - that's one way out. I actually think a profitable quarter here in Q2 would be sufficient but only because of how unlikely it is in the first place. Another thing would be if the FSD tech actually was on the path Elon says, but I also don't personally find that likely (intelligent folks can disagree).
Another way out is to get the help of association with another high status individual. Essentially Tesla needs allies. Larry Ellison was a decent example, although very limited effect. Big investments from china or petrol state megacorps are notable. Partnerships with a tech giant would be notable. I swear to god if I was Apple I would have a giant piece of Tesla because if Apple was behind Tesla financially and strategically then the impression of inevitability for Tesla would be raised much higher. But we're basically at the mercy of Musk's intuitions, and his intuition is that he can single-handedly make improbable things happen. That works sometimes. This lens of association also makes it clear the importance of SpaceX executing well.
