Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

That is not what he wrote, as shown on multiple threads last week.

i’m getting tired of that nonsense clogging up the thread.

 

[Boomer19]

Please remember that the Annual Meeting is almost always a nothingburger. I can't remember there ever being an unexpected announcement at one.

generally agree,

for whatever reason, stock shot up after meeting last year

would be nice to repeat that

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Did I say no demand? Don’t make ridiculous straw man arguments.

The disaster that was Q1 and the follow up messaging about robo taxi, plus email last week, mixed with China issues led to this.

It’s troubling people react so strongly to mild criticism of the company even after one of its worst quarters ever.

It's troubling people feel the need to criticize others for their choice of investment strategies. I think "mild criticism" may very well be the understatement of the century. Come on, just admit you have a bone to pick, either financial or personal, and move along.

Dan

 

[AlexS]

Yes. However, the company hasn’t come out to clarify. And that is a red flag to Wall Street. Another red flag is that TSLA acquired a cash burning business, Maxwell, without explanation on how it will stop Maxwell from bleeding cash, and how Tesla will benefit. Wall Street isn’t going to watch Hyperchange videos on YouTube to find out why Tesla MIGHT have bought them, they want to hear from the source.

Elon is building up 40% short interest to get a better trigger for a spring back

 

[azaz]

It's troubling people feel the need to criticize others for their choice of investment strategies. I think "mild criticism" may very well be the understatement of the century. Come on, just admit you have a bone to pick, either financial or personal, and move along.

Dan

I own the car and am close to 100% invested in Tesla, the only bone I have to pick is with poor leadership and execution (short term which I have clarified many times). Also this is a ridiculous straw man argument again cause I've literally never criticized anyone for holding the stock, it would be especially stupid considering I hold the stock myself, only for people acting like cultists.

 

[X Fan]

I think Tesla (and us, shareholders) are underestimating how the FUD around the company is scaring potential buyers.

Every one I know (I = a 33+ French guy who doesn't need a car but would otherwise purchased a Model 3 LR with cash) thinks Tesla is doomed and wait for all their neighbors to get one before they can buy one for themselves (this applies to my brothers and sisters, parents, uncles and cousins, friends and colleagues, really!). I did rent a Model S several times just for fun and to let my friends and family get the experience. I did a test drive of the Model 3 with some car enthusiasts friends. They did love it, but the FUD is really too strong for the common Jean. French/European ended up being far more risk averse than I thought.

IMO, Tesla cannot Cross the Chasm with so such a level of FUD in the media – at least in France, but I guess it's the same in other large European countries, and probably in China. The strong sales in the US might be a good testament to how failure-friendly American can be, but becoming a big auto manufacturer requires to convince the "non-beta" users that the company is not a startup anymore.

Musk would have gained a lot with a "serious" public figure for the company like Erich Schmidt was for Larry Page / Sergey Brin (not the products / vision / fun, just the boring, financial stuff).

Good points!

Even in the U.S., the on-going FUD (fire stories, AP crashes) combined with stock price in free fall will clearly scare off some buyers and as a by-product lessens demand.

Even though Elon's email was twisted by the press, the question is whether it needed to come out at all. Just institute an enhanced expense review and low-play it.

 

[elasalle]

CEO: Nissan performance is hitting ‘rock bottom'

 

[azaz]

I don't know about "execution". It was always an unknown as to what the demand would be for a profitably priced model 3. I don't know what Tesla could have done to make a better $50K EV.

We still don't know model 3 demand. We will find out a lot over the next 18 months.

best in class product+brand should be easy to sell. although I maintain the philosophical dislike of advertising is dumb.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The shorts made him write that email to employees. It was all the shorts fault.

But seriously, what was the point of that email? What other company has a CEO who announces that they have 10 months to live unless they reduce employee expenses? Seriously? Why?

Obviously he is doing this on purpose. Someone is building a monstrous position in the background. When over 100% of the company is owned by Saudi’s, it will trigger a 2008 VW like squeeze.

#bagholderquotes :/

Lol, I gave you the 'Helpful' for the inverted hammerhead 180 with a full twist (in the 'pike' position).

Relax, Brother! It'd be alright.

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

#Tesla registered 1,533 new #Model3 VINs. ~69% estimated to be dual motor. ~56% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 420995.

atleast VINs reached 420XXX

 

[Leo9]

Relatively strong intraday price action.

 

[Remus]

Tesla is using a servicing company (State National) to handle the logistics.
Markel Subsidiary State National to Provide Fronting for Tesla's New Insurance Venture

no objection there ;-)
I was replying to the concern that Elon might be spreading himself too thin with newly added adventures such as the insurance. I just can't see how much Elon can be involves in this.

 

[elasalle]

demoing FSD to just the analysts was a mistake. One goes off and calls it sci-fi.

It would have been better if it demoed it to general public.
I think they can and should

 

[trentbridge]

Relatively strong intraday price action.

I don't think the earlier poster is correct about Tesla stock dipping below $200/share as being a catalyst for more selling..I believe that the stock will be okay if it closes above $200/share...an intraday reversal is a healthy sign...if it dips below a strategic price pint and rebounds...

 

[mtndrew1]

I think the next potentially stock-moving positive news is if they deploy advanced summon and it actually works. The internet would be flooded with people playing with the feature (for better or worse) and if it doesn’t stab babies or flatten puppies it will get more free publicity than fart mode.

Model 3 kvetching seems to have really died down regarding fit & finish and there’s virtually no consistent mechanical issues so a Consumer Reports upgrade to “average” seems plausible later this year. That would be extremely influential.

A true Model S refresh also seems in the bag for Q3 or Q4 (they won’t allow it to have slower supercharging than the cheap car for long). The air suspension issues that dragged down the S and X should be resolved-ish for the next CR reliability ratings too, potentially moving those products to “average.” Average or better, incidentally, adds the products to CR’s recommended list.

If FSD actually starts doing new things that’ll be a solid bump and plenty more free publicity.

Lots of potential upside here, particularly if the cash burn slows/stops in Q2 and Q3.

(I’m not an investor)

 

[carterm2]

I am the Hulk!

Today's trade reminds me of an olive tree during harvest... motor driven shaking...

I started this post weeks ago, but left it till now since it is so appropriate for the general situation.

But I am talking about the election of course... shake the hell out of the voter, make it seem like the war is about to start and the economy is about to crumble, and at the last minute, close the "deal". Macro sucks today, and its all about policy. And the ten year bull market has legs of jello.

This is about the trade war with China and the coming war with Iran (really unbelievably stupid imho.). And of course this is about investors expecting profit going forward every quarter but getting spending every quarter until Ai saves the day! Most of us only know Ai as a long ago promise that never pays off. But today, Ai has exponential learning which is exponentially new. (alphaGo).

I hope we all come out of this as better human beings and go on to achieve great heights....

If it doesn’t kill you, it makes you stronger.

 

[KSilver2000]

Looks like it could hit $200 sometime before EOD on Friday. No positive evidence of improvements at Tesla and continued macro weakness on trade concerns. No need to buy on today’s drop.

I wrote this on Friday—knowing it was already a Friday—to lighten the mood on a down day. Didn’t realize sub $200 would really come so soon.

One can try to reason this drop however they want, but reality is that there is nothing that can bring this back up right now besides hard evidence to show increased production/delivery. Plain and simple.

Edit:
Some people here wrote negatively about T Rowe and Fidelity liquidating their holdings. But they’re the ones looking very smart now as they dumped TSLA in the past 6 months or so.

 

[Cloxxki]

New model S and X deliveries appear scarce .
Delivery forum does not indicate otherwise.
I need to see deliveries in decent volume before buying more shares.

I want to see a proper technical bottom. Not a bargain buying permalongs bottom.
speculatively I might ebe interested around $150. But with so many broken promises and pipe dreams even the engineers don't believe in, there is barely a bottom for a loss-booking car maker that in theory would also be an energy company and software company, if they were selling such in meaningful numbers.
Had these cars come with an ICE, $50 would have been considered a fair valuation. Now that the rest of the market is starting a catch up campaign, it doesn't really matter anymore. Show leadership, growth and respect for your customers. It's not that hard, unless you never had a stable car brand before. So it might actually be an unsurmountable task for those small group of men and women. They make awesome products but run a very meh company.

I want to see management taking customers seriously for once. Cars designed to suit a larger demographic of customers better for actual use. Not just a Model 3 designed to compete with the sedan version of the BMW 3-series, etc. Truth is, those are show-off cars. People who NEED cars to facilitate life itself, drive hatchbacks, estates, etc. A fixed parcel shelf, letterbox boot, small frunk, it just doesn't add up to a car the market will demand in limitless numbers.
Small capitulation on Tesla's part: tow hooks are being allowed, shruggedly, going forward. Perhaps there is hope.
I feel sorry for those who did get in hard when Elon tweeted about 420. And his fines were but a slap of the wrist. What did investors lose since because of mismanagement and horrible expectation management? Not only market cap but also a smaller share of the company per share.

How hard can it be?
Get some of those billions of fresh cash to actual cell production. Inexcusable to be cell limited in 2019 with such a low car production. Under half guidance for Model 3.
- Model 3 Estate. Seriously. This is what the market will buy.
- Optional instrument cluster for $1,000-2,000. Heck, offer to take it back for double when signing up for RoboTaxi when and if that ever happens.
- Smaller battery versions, because saving the planet, because cell limited. Make a 40 kWh hatchback Model 3. Bare bones, $30k. See it fly out the door.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think Tesla (and us, shareholders) are underestimating how the FUD around the company is scaring potential buyers.

Every one I know (I = a 33+ French guy who doesn't need a car but would otherwise purchased a Model 3 LR with cash) thinks Tesla is doomed and wait for all their neighbors to get one before they can buy one for themselves (this applies to my brothers and sisters, parents, uncles and cousins, friends and colleagues, really!). I did rent a Model S several times just for fun and to let my friends and family get the experience. I did a test drive of the Model 3 with some car enthusiasts friends. They did love it, but the FUD is really too strong for the common Jean. French/European ended up being far more risk averse than I thought.

IMO, Tesla cannot Cross the Chasm with so such a level of FUD in the media – at least in France, but I guess it's the same in other large European countries, and probably in China. The strong sales in the US might be a good testament to how failure-friendly American can be, but becoming a big auto manufacturer requires to convince the "non-beta" users that the company is not a startup anymore.

Musk would have gained a lot with a "serious" public figure for the company like Erich Schmidt was for Larry Page / Sergey Brin (not the products / vision / fun, just the boring, financial stuff).

I'm surprised to hear that honestly. I never get that when talking to potential buyers. Maybe it depends on how plugged in they are to social media?

haven't read most of TMC posts lately... was the misinformed notion that -Elon wrote that Tesla had 10 months to live unless employees reduce expenses- not thoroughly debunked?

Can you imagine Elon obsessed with state by state regulatory approval and policies for the insurance business? I can't.

He has been meeting with the auto pilot team weekly for at least 3 years how much more can he get involved really?

Fair point. ​

 

[AlexS]

demoing FSD to just the analysts was a mistake. One goes off and calls it sci-fi.

It would have been better if it demoed it to general public.
I think they can and should

Autonomy day for journalists.

BTW advanced summon is delayed for more than half a year, i know he tweeted that it is now almost ready. but almost ready may be another 6 months.

Will the insurance also be delayed for months or someone have any insight about it and it is expected in next days weeks for real?