The problem with this analysis is that it all relies on the assumption that TSLA was fairly valued in 2014. Arguing that TSLA is a much better buy now could mean it's actually good buy, but it could also just mean we were suckers back then.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The problem with this analysis is that it all relies on the assumption that TSLA was fairly valued in 2014. Arguing that TSLA is a much better buy now could mean it's actually good buy, but it could also just mean we were suckers back then.
He lost me when he said 90% of car sales would be EV’s in 2022.
I think bulls here need to be careful. There are lots of big money players who have access to alternative data and may be in the midst of selling. Fidelity sold their huge stake in March and probably has a realtime view into deliveries via alternative data. Tesla has a pretty good chance of missing guidance in Q2. The unpredictability here will lie with what Tesla is going to do in June with another tax credit cliff. There may be huge numbers of US deliveries still despite their attempts to unwind delivery hell.
powertoold
Active Member
Tax credit cliff, really? It's going from $3500 to $1750, hardly a cliff.
No....they don't have insider access to sales or other "means" of sales data. No one outside of Tesla has an insight into Tesla's current production volume and thus, level of deliveries. Get of here with that type of nonsense. That's fear-mongering.
So the stock is doing this before the so called "recession" hits? I really hope Q2 numbers are good as there were international delivery issues in Q1. Don't think Tesla will deliver on FSD by the end of this year, I just hope our deliveries are good this Q2.
I'm disappointed the decrease, but I still bought in at 195 this morning for dollar cost averaging for my long position. Not touching it until 2025, but yikes on the short term!
I'm disappointed the decrease, but I still bought in at 195 this morning for dollar cost averaging for my long position. Not touching it until 2025, but yikes on the short term!
In terms of finances, they would operate the same way they plan to as a public company, which is primarily from internally generated cash flows. No one seems to notice but free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) for the past 12 months is positive $111 million, even though it included an intense ramp up quarter (Q2 2018) as well as Q1 2019.
If they need more cash they can easily raise it as a private company. SpaceX, for example, raised $1 billion over the past six months without batting an eyelash.
Elon said the go private ship had sailed, but it can always come back into port.
I'm super bullish on Tesla long term, please don't accuse me of FUD. Being wise is different than fear mongering. I work in the financial industry and alternative data sources are a huge source of edge. If one had sufficient capital under management it would make sense to do really rigorous P&D estimation, and these big funds fall in that area. It may have been coincidence that Fidelity sold in March, but there's some non-zero probability that they had insight into P&D before that number was given by Tesla.
We can read the tea leaves in June based on volumes/price action, but make no mistake, this is a really high leverage moment for Tesla. In Q1 it was unclear if Tesla simply had production constraints or was demand limited. The latter would be validated if Tesla fails to increase deliveries in a quarter with a tax credit cliff. I'm personally conflicted about when TSLA will bounce back...it may be the Q2 P&D report or Q3.
Incredible, look at this down movements and all the shorts still did not manage to make a profit.....
Ihor Dusaniwsky @ihors3
Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted pjhornak
$TSLA shorts are still down $1.26 billion in mark-to-market losses since 2016. $853 million of that loss are stock borrow carry costs.
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
Well, if you’re picking timeframes to support a biased view.
This stock has gone up and down so much, you can practically choose any timeframe to support both bull and bear case. How much would one who put money in five years ago be up to this point? $0 today. Only swing traders made money on this in the past five years.
Even leaving money in a simple savings account or index fund with negligible interest rate would have made more than with TSLA. Let that sink in.
Perhaps Tesla is reviving the old plans about running 3rd party apps on the big screen? If so the gaming engines would be used when porting games over.
I would love an app letting me plan a journey with many stops.
My question on that is, if Tesla is truly demand limited currently, then why are they unable to produce enough parts for repairs? If the lines are slowed/off, then wouldn't they pump out parts to decrease customer downtime and associated costs?
Added 100 more at these prices, for a total of 500 now, bringing my average down to $265. May go lower still, but I’m not selling any until at least 2025 (unless Elon needs them).
It might be worth it to find out how many institutions significantly increased their holding during Aug 2018
I think it depends on which vehicle you're talking about. Model 3 looks demand limited, S/X not so much, they had inventory accumulation. The parts for S/X are probably harder to come by as well. What's unknown so far is how are the new Raven S/X models selling? Even if they have lots of orders I don't think we will see lots of deliveries until June.
Mostly it just seems like parts for repairs is low on the totem pole for Tesla's survival. The new car sales bring all the cash flow.
That doesn't mean much either. Nobody bought TSLA to earn an ROI of 1-8%.
Playing devils advocate, one possible explanation would be “hardcore cost cutting”. Customers downtime doesn’t cost you immediately.
But there is no greater due diligence than that you'll find on this board about ways to get an idea of production and deliveries. The people on this board have done and continue to do lot of research and find clues into how production is going. I don't for a second think that hedge funds have found a way to track production and deliveries that this board hasn't already tried to do. So the only other way they would "know" is insider information and to me, what you said is fear mongering because there's absolutely nothing to back that up.
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Yes.....we do know Q1 was about production constraints. We know they're cell limited on the 3 and we know they had issues with the Raven update. The fact that say you it's unclear it was production constraints or demand tells me all I need to know. There's tons of supporting evidence that all says production constrained. If they don't meet Q2 delivery guidance it will be because of production, not demand.
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Yes it does. You need to pay for a loaner for the customer while their car is waiting for those parts.
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