Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

Troy tweeted his estimate is 74k deliveries across all models.

Well the 90k guidance was a month ago, and the stock price was, I guess"higher"?

I think the market now believe Tesla will continue the burn rate of Q1,

 

[Chocochip]

Think we are finally seeing some real support here. Let’s see how this plays out.

I expect further attempts today to crash the SP. It's encouraging to see the support right after opening, but it's possibly not the end for today. I'm ready to buy some at sub-200, but as a personal rule I try to not trade during amateur hour. We hopefully find a true bottom today. Unless we already did.

 

[Cloxxki]

So, Tesla's version of the car that you want is the Model Y.

(No, I don't like this. However, I suspect that a Model Y would have higher efficiency than the car you actually want - the drag coefficient of a cut-off Model 3 hatchback would likely cause more drag than the Model Y's additional height causes.)

No, I would want a car that does to the BMW 3 wagon what Model 3 does to its sedan.
I got very close to buying a Ford Focus Wagon until I realized I actually don't need to own a car.

In the mid 90's, Volvo raced their wagon in BTCC because it was quicker than the sedan.
Body shops offering Model S conversion to shooting break report that drag is the same or less than original.
The importance of the sloping glass roof of Model 3 to me seems overstated. Especially as Model Y seems to get more than decent consumption. With V3 supercharging the need for ultra super lick aero is diminishing anyway.

 

[Subhuman]

Hey all you long timer's here would you say this round of gloom and doom about TSLA is as bad as it has ever been?
I have only been following for a couple years and in that time frame it certainly seems to be as bad as ever.

To my eye it is almost upside down from reality....as in the future ....while uncertain...... has many more upsides that what was apparent a few years ago.

Great clean energy car's and factory's to produce them growing up in part's of the world that want them....demand in other part's of the world that Tesla can't satisfy.

Continued improvement in these same product's ....the irrationality of this stock is ..well....irrational.

Let’s put it this way. I bought into TSLA in 2013 around $180 when they were barely able to make 20,000 Model S’s a year.

Fast forward today with 400,000 Model S,X and 3 a year, supercharging network, Tesla energy, Gigafactory 1-3, Tesla Semi, Model Y, roadster, pickup, etc.

There is no way Tesla should be valued the same as 2013. This is Big Oil’s last chance to try and kill Tesla before it gets to the point of no return. Some would argue that we have already reached the point of no return but vested interest have not excepted that yet.

 

[uselesslogin]

I can't yet justify buying more after buying at $238. But, to symbolically support TSLA today I bought 1 call contract for 11/15 @$420.

 

[VValleyEV]

Because the Semi will replace so much diesel use, it will advance Tesla's mission as much as and maybe more than any other product in their roadmap.

I am excited about this also. BUT make sure you are aware of the data on emissions contributions from freight vehicles vs cars and light duty trucks:
Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions | US EPA

“The largest sources of transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions include passenger cars and light-duty trucks, including sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans. ”

AND
“The remaining greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector come from other modes of transportation, including freight trucks, commercial aircraft, ships, boats, and trains, as well as pipelines and lubricants.”

SO, seems surprising but the emissions contribution from freight vehicles is significant but likely dwarfed by the contribution from cars, pickup trucks, and minivans. Includes pickups towing large Airstream travel trailers, humongous motor homes that get maybe 5mpg at best (one in the neighborhood spotted ready for vacation towing a full-sized pickup truck). Much as I want to see electrified Semis, I suspect e-pickups may be more emissions bang for the buck.

 

[elasalle]

.

Let’s put it this way. I bought into TSLA in 2013 around $180 when they were barely able to make 20,000 Model S’s a year.

Fast forward today with 400,000 Model S,X and 3 a year, supercharging network, Tesla energy, Gigafactory 1-3, Tesla Semi, Model Y, roadster, pickup, etc.

There is no way Tesla should be valued the same as 2013. This is Big Oil’s last chance to try and kill Tesla before it gets to the point of no return. Some would argue that we have already reached the point of no return but vested interest have not excepted that yet.

~ 2013, Jonas was the one who had the $450 price target ..

 

[Driver Dave]

Has Wall Street looked around lately?

I'm seeing Teslas everywhere.

 

[qunqun]

TSLA stock remind me what my gym coach told me "more pain more gain"

 

[TradingInvest]

I'm still trying to understand why a while back two largest institutional shareholders sold their positions, and why did Elon say all future quarters will be profitable. At that time, all future quarters profitable would mean TSLA to join S&P in May or August. Lots of people bought into that and got Calls or shares on margin. Seems to me the two large shareholders didn't think TSLA will join S&P. Why would they dump all their positions when the stock was going to join index? So my question is did Fidelity and T Rowe see something that Elon didn't see? I asked this question a while back (why those two sold shares), there was no good answer.

 

[EVNow]

Much as I want to see electrified Semis, I suspect e-pickups may be more emissions bang for the buck.

On a per unit basis, Semis are obviously better. Per GWh of battery - pickups may be better.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 32 minutes ago: Tesla cuts base price of new Model S and Model X vehicles

Benzinga - 10 minutes ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Spokesperson Says Pricing Changes Represent A Reduction Of 2-3% In Model X, S Prices

 

[Maitri982]

Elon did say in the Q4 call that Q1 might be profitable:

Yea...that was so wrong that it was beyond ridiculous. As smart as he is about some things, he is atrociously bad about others. In fact, I would say he exceeds in the exceedingly hard things, but is very bad at the simple stuff.

This is one reason a more polished CEO might not be a terrible idea. Musk is still there and overseeing most of the work, but someone else is the mouthpiece.

Gwynne does a great job at SpaceX and is much more than a moutpiece. Perhaps Tesla could use someone like that out in front of the analysts.

I expect a lot of disagrees on this, which is fine, but you are verging on blind, religious devotion if you do not see the major missteps that have occurred from Musk on important items, including this latest email which he must have known would leak, but still wrote it terribly.

 

[Remus]

Sometimes I wonder, for people who don't believe climate change, they don't care about the air pollution either?

Air quality in the silicone valley is frequently poor. Leading causes including fire and tail pipe emissions. In no wind days, can't see very far. Los Angeles is no better.

Recently been in Paris, while the food and the art are amazing, the air quality there feels worse than silicone valley. and I rarely see EVs on the road.

Beijing, Shanghai and many cities in China have adopted policies to restrict ICEs in the city, directly result in a rise in EV adoption, and the air quality there are improving.

It's sad for me to see Paris in smog. I mean do French people like smog?

 

[SteveG3]

Electrek - 32 minutes ago: Tesla cuts base price of new Model S and Model X vehicles

Benzinga - 10 minutes ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Spokesperson Says Pricing Changes Represent A Reduction Of 2-3% In Model X, S Prices

As added to the Electrek article,

“Update: A Tesla spokesperson sent us the following statement about the price change:

“Like other car companies, we periodically adjust pricing and available options. These pricing changes represent a reduction of about 2% to 3% in Model X and S prices. Last week, we raised US Model 3 prices by 1%. By any reasonable standard, these small changes are not newsworthy.” “

Yes Tesla, please more naming of games when they are played.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think Adam Jonas' statement "... worst case $10" is basically correct. Every stock's worst case is zero. There is no argument here. I think the important part is what's the probability. For TSLA to crash to near zero, the chance is very small, I think that's like 1% chance. On the other hand, the best case should be much higher than $391.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Electrek - 32 minutes ago: Tesla cuts base price of new Model S and Model X vehicles

Benzinga - 10 minutes ago: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Spokesperson Says Pricing Changes Represent A Reduction Of 2-3% In Model X, S Prices

The early version of Freds article had the word 'slashes'. Commenters were all over that clickbaity title, and now he changed it to 'cuts'. Fred admitting a mistake, wow, that's a first.

EDIT: Ofcourse he deleted all those comments, including mine. It would make him look bad and he is such a narcicist.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I almost feel bad for the poor on screen folks for CNBC who are just completely worn out on TSLA. You can see when it comes up they're sick of talking about it.

 

[Zero CO2]

Hey all you long timer's here would you say this round of gloom and doom about TSLA is as bad as it has ever been?
I have only been following for a couple years and in that time frame it certainly seems to be as bad as ever.

To my eye it is almost upside down from reality....as in the future ....while uncertain...... has many more upsides that what was apparent a few years ago.

Great clean energy car's and factory's to produce them growing up in part's of the world that want them....demand in other part's of the world that Tesla can't satisfy.

Continued improvement in these same product's ....the irrationality of this stock is ..well....irrational.

to quote the oracle of Omaha "“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
the fear is at a feverish pitch

 

[dww12]

Good review of 2019.16.1

Who else is adding all these safety features to cars already made and sold? Anybody got $35B I can borrow, there is a company I want to buy.