Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

with their chirping and mocking of anything constructive. some had barely value-add on the way up, even less on the way down.

what?? where??

I am in the accumulation phase.... accumulating trolls on the ignore list.. that is

By the way, anyone has an explanation for this? Source is Mark BS - so you can guess what the shorts are saying.

 

[Boomer19]

I’m not sure that’s true. If the options were exercised on a price much lower than today’s market (I think they were about 35% of today’s close) then adding 175k shares would bring the valuation up lowering the amount needed in the margin account.

No?

if you have 1750 contracts with a 30 strike on a 200 MP the equity value in your account is the same after you exercise them. exercises are an equity-neutral transaction, whether using reg-t or portfolio margin. the net liquidation value and margin requirement are flat

they were ITM by ~$170 a contract * 1750 contracts * 100

each share is ~$170 in money * 175,000

now he can trade these a year from now and pay flat LT cap gains tax if he chose.
or a show of faith, like another has posted.
this has nothing to do with margin call

 

[mongo]

Question: I am likely to soon buy a model S. should i purchase in a timeframe (assuming I can get delivery) to support Q2? or should i buy to support Q3?

Assuming you are in the US, the tax credit drops by/to $1,875 after Q2. Buying early gets Tesla the cash sooner too.

 

[capster]

Question: I am likely to soon buy a model S. should i purchase in a timeframe (assuming I can get delivery) to support Q2? or should i buy to support Q3?

Yes, both.

 

[Do It]

And it definitely won't be with their current laughably inadquite hardware stack.

...and who are you?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why do all the sensors need redundancy? If a problem occurs, it could pull over. No different than getting a flat tire.

Seems to work fairly well in rain. Snow....I agree that could be an issue. But there are MANY markets FSD could work in without snow.

The sensors need redundancy for the same reason the CPUs, computer board, and data cables are all double redundant: so they can be space-rated to go to Mars.

During Autonomy Day, Elon said you could put a bullet through any part of the FSD computer and it will keep working. Just imagine that bullet is a micrometeorite...

Elon doesn't have the time needed to develop this tech twice, and space flight requires redundant systems. He's learned the lesson of Apollo, in that we have forgotten the lessons of Apollo learned 2 generations ago by NOT USING THEM to go to Mars.

Contrary to what some short sighted Wall St analists think, this isn't "SciFi stuff". Elon is making it real today. And remember to thank Apollo engineers the next time you use any of the myriad of NASA spin-offs (for those NOT interested in humanity's future in space).

Cheers!

 

[JusRelax]

Isn't Spiegel's job to understand finance? How can someone putting other people's money into the market not understand such a basic principle of options?

He's the one that started this whole 'margin call' theory today?

 

[ZsoZso]

With all due respect. I trust Andrej Karpathy and his team in knowing what they are doing. People just posting these messages without knowing exactly what Tesla is doing does not hold any merit.

People posting blind faith messages like the above without any clue to what the definition of level 5 autonomy is, does not hold any merit either!

To be clear:
1. I trust Andrej Karpathy and his team that in time they will be able to solve the software problem of full self-driving, including level5.
2. I even trust that they have a pretty good chance of being the first team in the world to get there.
3. But, anybody claiming that the current hardware as shipping now in Tesla S3X vehicles is sufficient to reach level 5, does not understand the requirements. Plain and simple, drive the car in slushy winter weather and the camera suit becomes unusable within minutes as you can observe on the rear view camera image yourself and also notice the message the car pops up "Autosteer Temporarily Unavailable". Without additional hardware to perform camera-lense self-cleaning on-the-go (aka wipers or water spray clean), the maximum level attainable is level 4.

 

[mongo]

Isn't Spiegel's job to understand finance? How can someone putting other people's money into the market not understand such a basic principle of options?

View attachment 410452

He's the one that started this whole 'margin call' theory today?

Apparently, he's never been told that you can exercise your employee stock options without selling the resulting shares.
May not have ever had to deal with taxes from a profitable trade either...

 

[defc0n]

At near $200 levels, I start to believe Musk would be willing to entertain buyout offers once more. If you’re Apple with a huge pile of cash, and allegedly have shown interest in the past, it starts to become very compelling again. Musk would finally burn the shorts for good, and I can think of few things that’d make him happier than that.

Probably unlikely for sure, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. Offer would be $421

 

[Carl Raymond]

hardware to perform camera-lense self-cleaning on-the-go

Could this be retro fitted?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

what?? where??

I am in the accumulation phase.... accumulating trolls on the ignore list.. that is

By the way, anyone has an explanation for this? Source is Mark BS - so you can guess what the shorts are saying.

What explanation are you looking for? 10k+ Model 3 in China looks like a good start. Not as good as the 23k+ in Europe over the same time period, but a good start.

So, more than 33k Model shipped to Europe + China in Q1, since all the April sales were in-transit at the end of Q1. Nearly 40k Teslas when you add in the numbers for SX.

 

[Carl Raymond]

At near $200 levels, I start to believe Musk would be willing to entertain buyout offers once more. If you’re Apple with a huge pile of cash, and allegedly have shown interest in the past, it starts to become very compelling again. Musk would finally burn the shorts for good, and I can think of few things that’d make him happier than that.

Probably unlikely for sure, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. Offer would be $421

It would require shareholder vote, no? I would vote No. Musk would vote No. That’s almost a veto already.

 

[SPadival]

What explanation are you looking for? 10k+ Model 3 in China looks like a good start. Not as good as the 23k+ in Europe over the same time period, but a good start.

So, more than 33k Model shipped to Europe + China in Q1, since all the April sales were in-transit at the end of Q1. Nearly 40k Teslas when you add in the numbers for SX.

April numbers @2k seems low. Is it because of no inventory/ in-transit vehicles reaching China? Definitely not due to the “fires” which mysteriously started occurring in China and HK after April 21st.

 

[sundaymorning]

Can you link to that? I've listened at that segment both from audio and transcript, and can't seem to find what you are referring to.

Sorry I misquoted the CC with the $35,000 Model 3 CC webcast on Feb. 28th. Elon mentioned that by taking more orders online Tesla is also able to reduce 5-6% the cost of S and X. Listen in at the 33 minute mark.

https://ir.teslamotors.com/events/event-details/35000-model-3-conference-call

 

[mongo]

He could have also done an 83-B election where he pays the taxes on the gain at the time of exercise, and sets the clock for any gains from here to be long term gains rather than short term gains.

Yah, Elon likely covered the taxes (which makes the low SP advantageous for him). I was talking about Mark S. never making a profit .

April numbers @2k seems low. Is it because of no inventory/ in-transit vehicles reaching China?

10k total /4 months =2.5k on average. Given they were trying for 0 in transit at end of quarter, 2k seems pretty high.
Actually, with the -69% month over month, that means 7,496 in March and 2,324 in April which is almost the whole 4 month period (9,820 out of 10,072) .

 

[sundaymorning]

I relistened to Q1 Conference Calls and during the 33:50 mark Elon stated that he expects to lower the price of S&X due to reduce cost of 5-7%. Which makes sense given today’s announcement on lowering the price of SX by around $3k.

I just wanted to point out that I misquoted the Q1 CC with the $35k Model 3 CC webcast, listen in at the 33 minute mark. Elon quoted by moving more orders online you’re Tesla is able to reduce its cost by 5-6%.

https://ir.teslamotors.com/events/event-details/35000-model-3-conference-call

 

[izemize]

April numbers @2k seems low. Is it because of no inventory/ in-transit vehicles reaching China? Definitely not due to the “fires” which mysteriously started occurring in China and HK after April 21st.

I just checked out the spreadsheet with the carriers and 4 ships had arrived at the end of March in China. I'd love to hear an explanation too.

EDIT: Adam Jonas's recent target explanation also mentioned concerns about the China growth plan. Maybe he got the idea from this particular report. (Bloomberg - Are you a robot?).

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Is it because of no inventory/ in-transit vehicles reaching China?

Yes. Maybe the shorts assume that since they can sell shares they don’t have, cars should work the same way?

 

[SPadival]

10k total /4 months =2.5k on average. Given they were trying for 0 in transit at end of quarter, 2k seems pretty high.
Actually, with the -69% month over month, that means 7,496 in March and 2,324 in April which is almost the whole 4 month period (9,820 out of 10,072) .

That’s a pretty good explanation. I remember delivery staff in China for Q1 were bat sugar busy - with lines of cars waiting to be registered.