Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

He has in fact said that it's unlikely.

To an idiotic Adam Jonas question no less (Neel asked on behalf of Adam)

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call Transcript | Alphastreet

By the way, FT has compiled the greatest stupidest hits of Jonas Brother (singular) . LOL

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/05/23/1558607451000/The-best-of-Morgan-Stanley-s-Adam-Jonas/

 

[Duffer]

Jonas, among others connected to Wall Street, were hyping that Tesla needed a capital raise just as often as Elon said it wasn't going to happen. Elon decided that the capital raise was in the best interest of Tesla which in turn should have made "the Street" happy. I doubt that the ink was completely dry on the capital raise agreements and the same people/institutions started immediately dropping their Target Price. Unfortunate timing?? Sure, and I happen to have a bridge that I can sell you too.

"The Street" and everyone that makes money from there likes the status quo. They know the loopholes, they know the "rules" and they most importantly, know who's palm needs to be greased to ensure that it is business as usual. Along comes Elon and he's now disrupting or threatening to disrupt the majority of the industries that "the Street" relies on to continue amassing their fortunes. Yes, they are happy to make money on Tesla's volatility but never forget that they also have a vested interest in seeing Elon/Tesla fail.

 

[Zero CO2]

That would seem remarkably short sighted... they’re building a factory *in China* that’s looking like it’ll be up and running by the end of the year and would be unaffected by the current situation.

I work with chinese router ODM... designing new HW in my day job ... we are not stopping or even pausing due to Trump or any of his BS ... he will solve this issue with China because if the stock market continues this drop he has no chance in 2020...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My friends been leasing a Model S for years and is set to turn it in a few months from now. He says he likely could never go back to gas unless it was ultra high end.

Even he somehow thinks his TSLA stock as a risk to go to zero. This is FUD and human nature. Period.

Not advocating to actively change the narrative with advertising or anything, we're just gonna need to ride this out for as long as it takes. A disruption of this magnitude is literally unprecedented in any of our lifetimes, the legacy establishment isn't going down without a fight.

 

[Skryll]

It's been a terrible week/month/year for all TSLA shareholders. Ugh.

Actually, I would be totally happy if it wasnt for having overextended in terms of leverage. If you are just a buy and hold person not utilizing margin nor options with a limited runway, then you could just happily accumulate and lower your average share price as time goes by, until the inevitable breakout.

Enjoy the shorter financed discount.

 

[Remus]

The GF3 isn't a perfect salve for all the China issues and you know it (or should know it). Further, thinking about GF3's impact in 2020 is still longer-term than Q2 thinking.

One nightmare on China I have here is that Trump won't actually give in until the market collapses since he substantially measures his strength in negotiation based on that. A market collapse would be more pain for everyone of course but it is inevitable on the current path if it goes long enough. Personally I don't think I should make a 5th attempt to catch this knife until China is settled down.

Yeah it is a short term worry.
Over the past several years,There have been many times, boycotting either Japanese or Korean cars with nationalism parade in China.

They don't seem to have long term effect on the sales of those cars.

 

[dha]

Latest official NASDAQ short interest figures just dropped: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Short interest relatively flat from 4/30 to 5/15 settlement dates. Not terribly surprising as stock did not move dramatically during this time. Next figures released on 6/11 will reflect the current plunge below 200 and will be revealing. I would not be surprised if we see an all time high short interest in terms of share #.

I have personally been using short interest figures to help me time my purchases. It has been a very reliable indicator, historically speaking.

 

[SO16]

My friends been leasing a Model S for years and is set to turn it in a few months from now. He says he likely could never go back to gas unless it was ultra high end.

Even he somehow thinks his TSLA stock as a risk to go to zero. This is FUD and human nature. Period.

Not advocating to actively change the narrative with advertising or anything, we're just gonna need to ride this out for as long as it takes. A disruption of this magnitude is literally unprecedented in any of our lifetimes, the legacy establishment isn't going down without a fight.

If Tesla can just keep selling and be profitable, then the whole demand narrative falls flat. Tesla just needs to execute. I am hoping by October, all this BS is behind us.

 

[Zero CO2]

My friends been leasing a Model S for years and is set to turn it in a few months from now. He says he likely could never go back to gas unless it was ultra high end.

Even he somehow thinks his TSLA stock as a risk to go to zero. This is FUD and human nature. Period.

Not advocating to actively change the narrative with advertising or anything, we're just gonna need to ride this out for as long as it takes. A disruption of this magnitude is literally unprecedented in any of our lifetimes, the legacy establishment isn't going down without a fight.

who is he kidding ... he will never go back to ICE he is just saying that to justify his SP to 0 comment ...

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Latest official NASDAQ short interest figures just dropped: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

Short interest relatively flat from 4/30 to 5/15 settlement dates. Not terribly surprising as stock did not move dramatically during this time. Next figures released on 6/11 will reflect the current plunge below 200 and will be revealing. I would not be surprised if we see an all time high short interest in terms of share #.

I have personally been using short interest figures to help me time my purchases. It has been a very reliable indicator, historically speaking.

How so? I look at short interest as a contrarian indicator, as the shares all have to be bought back and my theory is that shorts have a tendency to get skittish more quickly than longs when they experience losses. That's worked pretty well in the past, but not so much with TSLA recently. Am I misreading something? What do you look for as a buy signal?

 

[Carl Raymond]

The stock price is pretty reasonable if one assumes that 1) the robotaxi scheme will not materialize and 2) Tesla Energy will not contribute significantly to the bottom line. I don't think those assumptions are unreasonable for conservative investors given that the projected autonomy timelines have so far appeared almost delusional and there's little to show for the "year of the powerwall and solar roof".

The SP will go up if the company actually walks the walk and doesn't just talk the talk. Getting from cool autonomy features to an actually working robotaxi scheme is a big leap. Until they actually achieve some of the big promises, is is really so unreasonable to be valuated like a rapidly growing premium car company? If so, isn't 30 billion a pretty reasonable valuation at this point in time? For the record, I'm long TSLA.

The biggest factor is risk. Two quarters of profit and guidance of all profitable quarters going forward factored risk out, largely. One quarter of loss and the risk factor came tumbling back. Trust was eroded.

The risk is largely imaginary. People forget that Tesla themselves set the pace of growth. The pain level could always be dialled back if deemed necessary.

Two cash flow positive quarters, confidence will be restored, and cars alone will see the stock price double. 3000 model 3 per week out of GF3, just 12 months away, is a date I’m looking forward to. I too am long Tesla, and not because of Energy or Robotaxis.

 

[bdy0627]

My dad sold all of his TSLA stock this week. He holds about 100 stocks, so it was not a big deal for him, but still about $60k worth of TSLA that he probably lost about 30% on. He was not a high conviction investor, mostly influenced by me in deciding to buy the stock a couple of years ago. He lives in Seattle so he sees lots of Teslas all around. The FUD was ultimately too much for him along with the weakness of the stock. He is totally convinced that Tesla is doomed at this point. Too much debt, Elon's unstable and you can't trust him, and of course, demand looks like a problem already. I decided not to try to persuade him to keep his stock at this point. I feel a little guilty about it actually. He feels better just getting rid of a loser in his portfolio. I think he's right to jettison a stock that he has low conviction in. I'm sure he's got a lot of company selling TSLA on this huge drop. We've even seen a number of old timers here decide to sell and move on. It takes serious conviction to hold TSLA through all of this.

 

[Zero CO2]

To an idiotic Adam Jonas question no less (Neel asked on behalf of Adam)

View attachment 411698
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call Transcript | Alphastreet

By the way, FT has compiled the greatest stupidest hits of Jonas Brother (singular) . LOL

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/05/23/1558607451000/The-best-of-Morgan-Stanley-s-Adam-Jonas/

I think to the degree that it is legal space x could share intellectual property which would benefit Tesla and vice versa(i.e LIDAR technology , etc)...these companies are creating the future of our existence and here we are listening to a bunch a B-school clowns who never invented or executed anything in their careers other than an MS excel spreadsheet and a bunch of reports ... not clear why we need so many people doing financial work ... there is an industry ripe for getting rid of workers with AI ... ... go TSLA

 

[Zero CO2]

I think to the degree that it is legal space x could share intellectual property which would benefit Tesla and vice versa(i.e LIDAR technology , etc)...these companies are creating the future of our existence and here we are listening to a bunch a B-school clowns who never invented or executed anything in their careers other than an MS excel spreadsheet and a bunch of reports ... not clear why we need so many people doing financial work ... there is an industry ripe for getting rid of workers with AI ... ... go TSLA

grossly overpaid clowns i might add

 

[dha]

How so? I look at short interest as a contrarian indicator, as the shares all have to be bought back and my theory is that shorts have a tendency to get skittish more quickly than longs when they experience losses. That's worked pretty well in the past, but not so much with TSLA recently. Am I misreading something? What do you look for as a buy signal?

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I look at historically high short interest as a signal that the stock may be close to bottoming out and that it may be a good time to buy. Does that answer the question?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon has now liked a plugshare retweet of an insidev’s tweet of a link to their article on @Mokuzai ’s moving chart animation. You’re almost famous!

 

[Sanny]

My worst nightmare: Elon is pissed off and organizes "Going Private 2", offers $270 per share, outvotes other investors and we are forced to sell that low.
Please tell me it is impossible.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

My worst nightmare: Elon is pissed off and organizes "Going Private 2", offers $270 per share, outvotes other investors and we are forced to sell that low.
Please tell me it is impossible.

Nothing is impossible, but Elon only has a bit less than 20% of outstanding shares. He’d have to convince a lot of other people to go along with it.

 

[sixela]

I'm sure he's got a lot of company selling TSLA on this huge drop. We've even seen a number of old timers here decide to sell and move on

Yes, and I wouldn't be suprised if some of the FUD is actually not from short sellers but from people looking to profit from the people who buy high and sell low by snapping up some shares to buy low and sell high...

 

[TradingInvest]

I believe this is oversimplistic.

I.e. Take 2 investors.

Today, Investor A invests 100% of their net worth in Tesla buying straight shares.
Investor B (following my advice) invests 105% of their net worth in Tesla.

I will bet you that investor B does better than investor A, 5 years from now.

It’s not simply a question of using or not using margin. It’s a question of degree.

I don't agree with you. This kind of thinking gets people into trouble. I bet a lot of people on this forum already got into trouble, it's unfortunate. Investment is a very difficult endeavor, it's not a gamble based on simple math or confidence. But we do know there are sound investment rules, people should study and follow those rules.

Borrowed money has cost. Margin probably costs 5~7%. You are making money for the brokerage. It's a risk free gain for them, but there is no free lunch in the market, so who took the risk? Basically you took the risk, and will take reduced gain, or take a loss on top of paying margin interest. I think most people should treat margin like drugs, never touch it. A little bit margin will turn into a habit then later a lot of margin. I mentioned this a long time ago, the only time you might consider using a bit margin is after the market has been in a recession for 2 years, you start to see the market recovery. Even in that case only very experienced traders can do with strict cut loss rules.

Second, what works on math may not work in the real world. You think you get everything checked out, this is guaranteed to be a 10 fold, then something happened, turns out this is not as great as expected. William O'neil said, in the end you will find ten baggers are very rare, one out of 10 of your picks may turn out to be a 10 bagger. I will add, usually the one you are most sure may end up disappoints you.

When you talk about someone investing 100% or 105% of net worth into one stock, both ideas are crazy. I know you are just using it as an example. If you have a large sum to invest, you need to have a plan, follow sound investment rules, don't gamble. Having the entire net worth in one stock may end up losing his entire net worth, or watch all the other stocks he liked to triple, only the one he actually invested goes nowhere.

If someone can not find 5 great stocks good for long term investment, I doubt he is that great to pinpoint an exact 10 bagger. If he can find 5 great stocks, why not invest in all of them? The benefit of diversification is huge.

However, TSLA might rally, then those with high leverage and concentration could gain a lot. So everything I said is purely opinion, not advice.