Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wooloomooloo]

While Morgan Stanley doesn't run a proprietary trading desk anymore, instead they:

• own huge positions in derivatives such as options the SEC doesn't recognize as prop trading, due to regulation loopholes
  
• own hedge funds and mutual funds, which can and do prop trade

Do you really think investment banks are financially disinterested in how individual stocks the stock market change? You are either incredibly naive or you are trying to mislead.

I was referring to MS specifically, not investment banks in general. I know what MS traces and doesn’t trade, for certain.

 

[generalenthu]

Margin free as of today.

Electrek free as of today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 10 minutes ago: Tesla starts limiting charge to 80% at busy Superchargers to reduce wait times - Electrek

 

[generalenthu]

I was referring to MS specifically, not investment banks in general. I know what MS traces and doesn’t trade, for certain.

Can you ask Mr. Jonas, what's up with his hatred of tesla? He pops up on the FCA call and asks them why FCA has to pay tesla all the damn money for meeting CO2 targets, but it never makes it into his $10 tesla thesis. Thats less market cap than what TSLA is going to collect from FCA.

 

[Bet the House]

Quite aggressive. So far your post is not insisting lot of confidence that you want to do this (you can't be confident in such a risky market anyway). I believe you have already decided, but in order to succeed you should prevail with the trade long enough. Based on your post, it seems that you are risking more than you can mentally afford. You should work on your backup plan. Have it more detailed. Make some calculations for the 160/140/120$ downside scenario, and look at the numbers. Would you be Ok with that? You should be. Still too much downside risk in the stock price for such uncertain move.

Gambling all on one investment is very dangerous. At least don't invest it all at once. Maybe wait with some significant portion of capital, and after the Q2 production numbers finish the investment, if it still holds true to your investment strategy. You better have a strategy.

Think also about your relationships, possible health issues yours and inside of your family circle(some really unexpected issues) which can put a lot of pressure on your financial situation. All compounded when your investment will go south on you.

Or take some counter measures, which could limit such exposure to external negative factors in play.

When it will turn against you, and you can't stand the pressure any more, and the rationale behind your strategy still holds true, slowly reduce the size of the position one step at a time.

Good luck! And don't forget the regular workout

Great advice!

Yes, I have thought through all possible outcomes (I am a Level 1 CFA so I am very familiar with markets and fully understand what "can happen" as others have pointed out) and I promise I am not a troll.

Let me emphasize that I will still have a comfortable lifestyle if Tesla goes to $0 and I will lock in profits as TSLA goes up (mainly to reduce the dependence on margin).

Again, i would not recommend this strategy to anyone and unless you are well experience in trading/investing you are playing with fire. I think it was @sleepyhead from a while back who used 'focused investing' mainly in TSLA and Solar City at the time, and i am doing something kind of similar.

I will try to update this post every 6 months or so and will let you know how it plays out (good or bad).

Happy memorial day to everyone in the US and thank you to all military! Your service is greatly appreciated.

 

[Dutchie]

Man im taking a beating, average share price is 290 . Not sure weather to hold or get out now before it's too late. I mean I used the 5k tesla refunded me on my purchase to buy the stock, but well damn.

If you don't sell you are not taking a beating at all. What was you investment horizon? If you get nervous just go out and do something else in stead of watching share price and come back when you need to sell.

 

[Driver Dave]

Electrek - 10 minutes ago: Tesla starts limiting charge to 80% at busy Superchargers to reduce wait times - Electrek

Makes sense.

Many drivers sit there waiting for 100 when... you don't need 100. Just get going to the next one. Faster that way.

 

[Skryll]

It actually looks like many of TRP's funds sold off TSLA, so it appears to have been a company-wide approach.

T. Rowe Price Funds Sold Lots of Tesla Stock in the First Quarter
"In total, 10 funds that held Tesla shares at the end of 2018 no longer did as of March 31, according to the Refinitiv data, while no funds opened new positions in the first quarter."

"The T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund (PRGFX), which held about 2.13 million shares of Tesla at the end of 2018, sold its entire stake. And its Blue Chip Growth Fund’s (TRBCX) holdings were cut from nearly 1.82 million shares to about 330,000. Both funds had added to their holdings in 2018."

Would be interesting what they consider a better opportunity than Tesla, which obviously they sold way under actual value based on the current products and roadmap and moats.

 

[Buckminster]

This StarLink launch success is very important for Tesla. If SpaceX's market cap goes to $100~200B because of StarLink earnings, Elon will be rich. Seems to me StarLink is a matter of when, not if.

One of the many backup plans that Elon has but won't need - Sells some SpaceX stock after it goes up to purchase more of TSLA.

Electrek - 10 minutes ago: Tesla starts limiting charge to 80% at busy Superchargers to reduce wait times - Electrek

Another genius move where you think - why didn't someone predict this?

 

[Ggusev]

Just get going to the next one

Thoughtful approach would be to charge to have enough juice to go to next SC and .. back. Just in case.
Imagine the unlikely situation you arriving to SC and find out it is closed due to some police investigation or powered off after lightning strike

 

[neroden]

Can you ask Mr. Jonas, what's up with his hatred of tesla? He pops up on the FCA call and asks them why FCA has to pay tesla all the damn money for meeting CO2 targets, but it never makes it into his $10 tesla thesis. Thats less market cap than what TSLA is going to collect from FCA.

I am thinking Jonas is under orders to manipulate the stock. His analysis has always been garbage, but now he has started telling different stories to different audiences, which smells of dishonesty as well.

I figured most of the previous drop in Q1 was the usual volatility plus T Rowe unloading, but now it smells like a bear raid.

Those who worry that Wall Street might know something about the fundamentals.. Look at Feb 2016. Similar, though smaller scale. Wall Street knew nothing about the fundamentals then, they don't now. This is psychology, propaganda, etc.

 

[Drax7]

Firstly, while Morgan Stanley doesn't run a proprietary trading desk anymore, instead they:

• own huge positions in derivatives such as options the SEC doesn't recognize as prop trading, due to regulation loopholes
  
• own hedge funds and mutual funds, which can and do prop trade

Do you really think investment banks are financially disinterested in how individual stocks the stock market change? You are either incredibly naive or you are trying to mislead.

Secondly, nobody but you is talking about a "conspiracy" - we are talking about Morgan Stanley's financial self interest, they earn money through several channels if they correctly predict or help set the price of a security.

Third, Adam Jonas can be an idiot about Tesla without there being a direct financial link as well.

Morgan Stanley has hedge fund clients that pay for research and transactions , and hedge funds require and insist that analyst support their views and market positions.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Haha, I think someone tied into Tesla's operations a little more. But she is wonderful. Was great, too, that she followed @CleanTechnica and did such a good job highlighting those reports.

Incidentally, we all decided it was getting a bit too combative and then the Tesla factory tour messed up the routine of our Dutch guy leading that project and our YouTube channel, so it's "on pause."

She's wonderful at messaging the air quality and climate topics and would be cool to see her on TV some.

But I really don't understand why Tesla doesn't have someone who can go on CNBC or such and quickly knock down all the nonsense that gets passed around there.

(emphasis mine)

so we basically need Dikembe Mutombo ?

 

[neroden]

FWIW, my worst case scenario makes the stock worth less than the current price, but that depends on a lack of demand both existing and persisting, which I consider extremely unlikely. Even if I see evidence of demand less than supply in December 2019, the continued word of mouth will bring demand up, as it did in Feb 2013 (I eventually learned that Tesla hit an air pocket in demand around the time my car shipped).

However, it is important to counter the disinformation campaign. I am not sure exactly how but I think a lawsuit against the stock manipulators would probably work as well as it did for Fairfax.

 

[sunny-value]

Interestingly, ARK's purchases of TSLA and its rise today pushed it from under 10% to over 10% of both ARKK and ARKQ. Meanwhile SSYS remains atop ARKQ at 11%.

Well if they started buying in the before-open market, they did not buy "on an up day", did they? They nabbed shares in the 180s which closed in the 190s.

I am thinking Jonas is under orders to manipulate the stock. His analysis has always been garbage, but now he has started telling different stories to different audiences, which smells of dishonesty as well.

I figured most of the previous drop in Q1 was the usual volatility plus T Rowe unloading, but now it smells like a bear raid.

Those who worry that Wall Street might know something about the fundamentals.. Look at Feb 2016. Similar, though smaller scale. Wall Street knew nothing about the fundamentals then, they don't now. This is psychology, propaganda, etc.

The problem isn't whether WS knows about the fundamentals. The problem is whether *anyone* knows. Who would have more information than Musk? Well, even he has admitted multiple times that he has no idea how quickly demand will ramp up or what it is at any given time. The best idea he has at any given time is how many orders have been received; even he has no look into the future. If you want certainty, buy Treasury bonds.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Energy storage & generation should be higher in Q2 vs Q1 - not sure why it went down in '18 from Q1 to Q2.

Q1 2018 had the Australian project.

Either way there was a sudden 50M dip in Q1 '19 - not sure whether its the new norm or it was because of cell shortage in Q1 again.

They deployed 73 MW of solar in Q4 2018, 55 MW were sales. They only deployed 47 MW in Q1, if we assume the same 75% ratio that's 35 MW of sales. At $3/W that's a $60m hit. The ratio probably increased above 80%, though, putting sales a bit below 40 MW and the revenue hit closer to 50m. Storage and kWhs generated should have been close to flat from Q4.​

 

[Highway2Heel]

Fairfax and just the facts | Deep Capture

 

[dqd88]

I met a friend who sells Audi this morning. Along with the coffee shop owner, we shared views of electric cars. Of course he was annoyed that I bought a Tesla. Regardless, the sales guy dissed Tesla, so far as saying how much he hates the CEO and the company as a whole. Reason #1 from his perspective, Tesla destroyed the auto (sales) industry. The sales guy quickly went on to talk about range, in that you have to keep these things charged. You know where that goes, no argument after I explained SC availability and recharging from 20% to 90% in 50 minutes and convenience of charging nightly from low amperage outlets in a pinch to the more typical 14-50 configuration. And that if neither of those are possible, we have PlugShare and ability to use the public charging infrastructure if all else fails. Thereafter it was the argument of maintenance, battery replacement, all the usual BS. I took a moment to explain maintenance concerns and warranty, suddenly he'd come around. We didn't even get into discussing AP, EAP, dare I say FSD, NoA, how it works, what works well, what doesn't, when to use, when not to, firmware updates that aim to improve the experience of riding the hardware. To me that is the icing on the cake. Maybe we just need more of the pro-EV writers to publish articles to distill and better inform those on the sideline or seemingly on the defense?

"Reason #1 from his perspective, Tesla destroyed the auto (sales) industry."
I think this is the key point. It is hard to argue with someone who's livelihood is affected because their industry is in decline due to Tesla's rise. Put yourselves in their shoes (I don't actually feel sorry for them much because they can get retrained for new jobs, but I can empathize). These people will not be able to look at this objectively. They can only view it subjectively and emotionally. Tesla stirs up hatred in their core. Not much we can do about it.
Tesla could actually end up destroying much of the auto industry. Excess ICE capacity builds by the day. What's the tipping point? BMW/Merc/etc could actually go bk within a few years. That's massive and will fuel much hatred. But that's also only a limited % of the population (not sure of actual %, my guess would be 10-15%). I think there is a big enough % of population that can view this objectively and are fans of Tesla and the transition to sustainable transport (>=50%). But will be impossible to mute the hate.
Some of these car dealerships are family businesses passed down through generations. Tesla is killing their businesses. They will not go down quietly. So, I guess my point is that this is the context under which the transition is happening. The change is right and inevitable. But will cause much turmoil. Stay strong.
This is basically an economic war between old and new. One of the biggest paradigm shifts ever. Physics is on our side (the product is a superior use/arrangement of molecules). But some collateral damage is par for the course.

 

[bdy0627]

The stock price is pretty reasonable if one assumes that 1) the robotaxi scheme will not materialize and 2) Tesla Energy will not contribute significantly to the bottom line. I don't think those assumptions are unreasonable for conservative investors given that the projected autonomy timelines have so far appeared almost delusional and there's little to show for the "year of the powerwall and solar roof".

The SP will go up if the company actually walks the walk and doesn't just talk the talk. Getting from cool autonomy features to an actually working robotaxi scheme is a big leap. Until they actually achieve some of the big promises, is is really so unreasonable to be valuated like a rapidly growing premium car company? If so, isn't 30 billion a pretty reasonable valuation at this point in time? For the record, I'm long TSLA.

I think the real question here is why so suddenly after 1 quarter for such a drastic market reaction. Definitely understand some skepticism and revaluing. It's the size of the move based upon the appearance of softer demand than expected in Q1.

 

[sundaymorning]

I recently picked up the Model 3, the car is fantastic. It drives better than I thought and in some ways much better than my 2013 early adopter Model S. The delivery specialist tells me that the overall sentiment at Tesla top down is much better than before. His bosses are giving him more optimistic signals now that the company is delivering lots of Model 3s. The location where I picked the car up from averages around 100 per day on weekends and less on weekdays. There seems to be much more organization at end of quarter pushes now with more and more internal employees from design centers helping in the last several weeks of the quarter. They would show up and install plates and do whatever they can to help out. I love this company so much I spent close to $200 buying up merchandise like sweaters. God I love the Model 3 and the way it drives, such a fantastic car both inside and out. My only complaint is that the M3 could have used a better design for its tail light.

I can’t wait for the S refresh, please mimic the roadster design and incorporate it in the S. I’m begging for you to take my money Tesla, make it happen!