Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

The Renault ZOE is their main EV and that sells quite well in Europe in its class (subcompact EVs, if you like). But it still sells a fraction of the number of Clios and Capturs. I very much doubt this would affect the "deal" with Tesla, way too much CO₂ to offset.

 

[Fact Checking]

I doubt it. FCA’s latest financial report says the contracts are “non-cancellable”:

“During the three months ended March 31, 2019, entered into multi-year non-cancellable agreements for purchase of regulatory emissions credits in various jurisdictions with total purchase commitments of €1.8 billion.”

https://www.fcagroup.com/en-US/inve...ts/files/FCA_NV_2019_03_31_Interim_Report.pdf

Yeah, Tesla would obviously have insisted on non-cancellable contract, because the pooling agreement had a cutoff date, i.e. Tesla contributed a real, irreversible advantage to the pool, worth billions of dollars.

Looks like Tesla may not be able to count on income from the FCA/Tesla EV agreement.

Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers
Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers

That's nonsense, the exact opposite is true: after a Fiat-Renault merger the value of the pool with Tesla would increase.

The merged company would lead the FCA-Renault-Tesla pool, which would be even more valuable to Tesla, because the annual number of CO₂ emitting European cars entered into the pool by the other two manufacturers would be about twice as large as before.

Nor would Fiat-Renault want to cancel the pooling agreement with Tesla: it's worth billions of dollars to them.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The Renault ZOE is their main EV and that sells quite well in Europe in its class (subcompact EVs, if you like). But it still sells a fraction of the number of Clios and Capturs. I very much doubt this would affect the "deal" with Tesla, way too much CO₂ to offset.

The ZOE would have an overemphasized benefit because of supercredits (lets each EV count as two cars), but I think you’re right. Tesla would still be very valuable to a FCA/Renault/Tesla pool. In fact, their lock on Tesla might have made FCA more attractive for a merger. “A” for strategy to FCA.

Edit: I see @Fact Checking came to the same conclusion while I was typing. Great minds.

 

[EVMeister]

View attachment 412255

Urgh, I made the mistake of reading the comments on that Tweet. It's such an infestation of TSLAQ.

 

[dc_h]

Definitely believe that this demand is possible even probable. Where are the factories? I believe they can be there, but I would like to know what the plans are. We would need at least one more dedicated GigaFactory for these numbers to be possible. Two for them to be probable. We would need more cash raised to do this by 2023.

Another post noted that Shanghai is designed for 30,000 a week, so that’s 1.5 million. If they can do Y at Fremont they can maybe get 750,000 there. That’s 2.25 million in two plants. Adding to GF1 could add 500k to 1 million, or Europe or eastern USA. Lots of options. Mostly need new models to build.

 

[Unpilot]

Urgh, I made the mistake of reading the comments on that Tweet. It's such an infestation of TSLAQ.

My number one rule for sanity's sake...NEVER READ BELOW THE FIRST COMMENT OR TWO on any twitter thread.

 

[Hock1]

Why not? Sounds like they’re going to need even more credits.

We really don't know what the provisions of the FCA agreement are because of CTO status. For all we know, in addition to emissions credits there could be some sort of future partnership, technology transfer, licensing involved. IMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

many thanks FC - are we supposed to be getting some sort of end of May update on Giga China?

There will be an Investor's Q&A session at the 2019 AGM on June 11th. China is almost certain to come up, and Elon will likely also address plans and progress at GF3/Shanghai in his opening remarks.

Tesla (TSLA) will hold its 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting on June 11

Cheers!

 

[Thumper]

I posted this in the TACC/Autopilot thread but it was the first post there since last year so I'll ad it here.
I just was looking at files that had been saved by
Sentinel mode and find that some files from my left front repeater are too corrupted to play at all and others are partly fine and then disintegrate into a pixelated mess. I will be getting this repaired ASAP and not use AP or NOA until it is fixed. Check your cameras.
I tried to imbed a copy but I get a Security Error message.​

 

[Johnny Ma]

I posted this in the TACC/Autopilot thread but it was the first post there since last year so I'll ad it here.
I just was looking at files that had been saved by
Sentinel mode and find that some files from my left front repeater are too corrupted to play at all and others are partly fine and then disintegrate into a pixelated mess. I will be getting this repaired ASAP and not use AP or NOA until it is fixed. Check your cameras.
I tried to imbed a copy but I get a Security Error message.

I've noticed similar issues but I suspect the cameras are fine. Seems to be a write/software issue on the Car/PC side, respectively. My files appear to be corrupted on Mac, but not so on PC. Also, some videos play poorly (entire regions covered in green blocks) during first playback but are fine on second or third playback.

We have lots of software engineers in this thread that can probably comment better than I. But I wouldn't pin this on your cameras...

 

[ruralectric]

I posted this in the TACC/Autopilot thread but it was the first post there since last year so I'll ad it here.
I just was looking at files that had been saved by
Sentinel mode and find that some files from my left front repeater are too corrupted to play at all and others are partly fine and then disintegrate into a pixelated mess. I will be getting this repaired ASAP and not use AP or NOA until it is fixed. Check your cameras.
I tried to imbed a copy but I get a Security Error message.​

Could be your USB stick.
See link: USB Flash Drives for Tesla Dashcam | TeslaTap

Mod: Take this advice, worked for me. And take the further conversation there too . --ggr

 

[traxila]

Another post noted that Shanghai is designed for 30,000 a week, so that’s 1.5 million. If they can do Y at Fremont they can maybe get 750,000 there. That’s 2.25 million in two plants. Adding to GF1 could add 500k to 1 million, or Europe or eastern USA. Lots of options. Mostly need new models to build.

Than would make Shanghai maybe the most prolific car factory in the world, all without battery supplies secured yet. I want to believe. Would prefer SP spike to high 280s or so and another Cap Raise dedicated to more factories. Time is running out.

Think Model Y could have 1.5 million global demand all by itself.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Think Model Y could have 1.5 million global demand all by itself.

Do you mean sell 1.5 million units a year?

 

[SPadival]

Does Australia offer any e-vehicle incentives?

Zero, zilch, none,nada

 

[jkliu47]

Looks like Tesla may not be able to count on income from the FCA/Tesla EV agreement.

Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers
Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers

Thanks for the replies everyone. It appears I have overreacted to the news based on the mistaken assumption that all those Zoe’s would have put Renault in a better position to benefit FCA - but apparently not quite enough.

This is one time I am glad to get all those ‘disagrees’.

 

[SPadival]

Joe White, Reuters
So how beholden does Tesla become to China, you know, whatever specific entity e.g. the Shanghai government? In the sense that it seems like that Chinese plant and all the infrastructure they're building there is being financed by bank loans from Chinese banks and Chinese entities... I mean how does that work? Seems like they're now beholden to some great degree to what Chinese consumers and government officials would like?

How nice of the Reuters guy to work the national security angle into the discussion /S

This is something that Jonas Bro tried as well. I guess they all got the same talking points memo.

H/T to @jhm .. this tweet got some likes

Even oilprice.com does not believe the FUD from the Media-WallSt complex - says its time to reverse/cut $TSLA short positions


“Headline hysteria suggests Tesla reversal”

H/T jhm@tmc

S Padival on Twitter

Looks like Tesla may not be able to count on income from the FCA/Tesla EV agreement.

Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers
Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced talks to merge the automakers

FCA was/is free to sign a pooling agreement with Renault to get their credits without having to go through a merger process. They didn’t.. so what does that tell you?

 

[RFernatt]

I see nothing wrong with calling the battery a "Fuel Tank". It's good analogy to the ICE equivalent.

In a way I agree, but when thinking of manufacturing difficulty and complexity and value, it's the opposite. ICE OEMs outsource most everything except engines and transmissions since those components comprise the core of an ICE, are the most expensive, comprise the most guarded value, where the OEM focuses innovation, research, etc. While electric motors are important, battery systems comprise the bulk of the value and focus of innovation for an EV and are therefore a lot more valuable than a fuel tank or the fuel equivalent of the ICE. In this sense, I would argue the battery system is not a fuel tank, but equal to an ICE engine. The EV motor may be on par with a transmission.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thanks for the replies everyone. It appears I have overreacted to the news based on the mistaken assumption that all those Zoe’s would have put Renault in a better position to benefit FCA - but apparently not quite enough.

This is one time I am glad to get all those ‘disagrees’.

Europe EV Sales: Renault Zoe Wins In December, Nissan LEAF Takes 2018 Title | CleanTechnica
Looks like ZOE sold around 40,000 last year and is on the increase, say 50,000 in 2020. That will be worth 100,000 cars in 2020 due to Supercredits. Not bad. Also looks like Renault sold about 1,000,000 cars in Europe in 2018, but that has been up and down, so let’s leave that the same for 2020. FCA about the same.
Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles European sales figures
Super busy for the next couple of days, but I’ll try to fire up the model and see what all this means.

Edit:

Here's an interesting graphic. It shows without pooling, Renault and FCA are in almost the same situation, that is, they would be penalized the equivalent of their entire 2018 profits in 2021.

2021 CO2 targets would generate €34 billion euros in penalty payments within Europe - JATO

 

[Solar Aussie]

Thanks for the replies everyone. It appears I have overreacted to the news based on the mistaken assumption that all those Zoe’s would have put Renault in a better position to benefit FCA - but apparently not quite enough.

This is one time I am glad to get all those ‘disagrees’.

Saw that on the news and thought the same thing.. Elon Musk said it was a confidential agreement so I doubt if we will really hear what it involved the pooling with Tesla that is.. However the one article about it in the UK Financial Times which has a paywall implied that it was worth 2 Billion Euros and there was no mention of Tesla European sales. However it is European focus - building a Gigafactory in Europe which was included as part of the expansions noted in the Tesla 5 year plan would be a great move toward an international company and there is a template with GF3 in China.

NB There are more in forward plans Refer to TSLA update letter 2016 P2 "
Later this year, we expect to finalize locations for Gigafactories 3, 4 and possibly 5 (Gigafactory 2 is the Tesla solar plant in New York)."​

So Maybe GF4 will be in Europe...

 

[Solar Aussie]

Interesting to look back at Elon's long term plans for 10 years starting 2006 and 2016
They are still on the Tesla Website so presumably there is still a belief in where Tesla and Musk are headed

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

Master Plan, Part Deux