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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In Belgium sales volume of vehicle for Jag & Land Rover is YoY down by 50%
jhm
Well-Known Member
If someone buys at $176, it's good for all of us longs.If someone managed to buy at $176, good for them
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Norway is a special case. 100% taxes on new ICE purchase distorted both the new and used markets. So a $50k car that's $100k new might be 60k after 3 years. But who will buy a 3 year old ICE for 60k when a new Model 3 costs 50k?
You really can't apply that to other markets, where that same ICE is 30k after 3 years.
2018.7.27 IB also increased the margin requirement of TSLA. InterestingView attachment 412993 This message just came in from IBKR. Keep control of your margin. By the way, I just bought 120 shares for my kids today
anthonyj
Stonks
kk trapped the dumb retail shorts time to pumpView attachment 412993 This message just came in from IBKR. Keep control of your margin. By the way, I just bought 120 shares for my kids today
Carl Raymond
Active Member
I love this chart. It reveals that while the stock price has declined, the number of stockholders is climbing. The FUD, is not fooling young investors.
Young investors don’t have huge sums to invest. Many of these holdings would be in tens of shares. But they are earning, and we know how attractive it is to keep adding to one’s position. Young people also share information with their buddies and are skilled at spotting the liars - with sites like reddit that float the best comments to the fore. Young people also are the ones most threatened by the Keeling Curve, most in need of a zero emission future.
anthonyj
Stonks
Those are swing traders. Been tracking that for a while. Too bad it doesn't go past a year
It already has an ad... For Tesla
Krugerrand
Meow
It's a great rule. Sometimes it requires breaking that rule in order to fully appreciate the reason for it. I'm guessing there are a few here on the forum who have broken it, myself included.
Everybody knows rules are meant to be broken, and if not broken then for sure bent. It’s which rules one decides to bend or break that determines how exciting, boring, wretched, calm, predictable, tearful, etc... that one’s life is going to be.
I’m breaking some rules, bending some and respecting some others where TSLA is concerned. Happy as a clam, sleeping like a baby and perusing Island Life and Yachting Done Right magazines. Going to be an epic finish one way or another and I got a front row seat.
Love for the front row seat....really is an amazing time to watch the future...and the people making it a better one.
Pras
Member
I am going through this emotional stress as most of you are with the recent SP movement... just doesn’t make sense.
I did all the research and I think demand is much more than people imagine. But the stock is behaving as it is all ending for Tesla. Even that stupid NYU prof is shitting on it. But when I think deep again and again I come to the same conclusions. (Can you see if there is hole in the below points).
1) Model 3 demand is very strong, including in the US. (Case already made in my previous few posts). I am guessing 91k deliveries and equal or more production.
2) Fremont doesn’t require additional capex to support model 3. Hence model 3 margins should be near peak expectation. (Q1 volumes were too low to reflect the true margin).
3) SG&A is basically fixed cost heavy (as Tesla doesn’t have margin based sales). R&D cost on FSD and chip is again fixed cost heavy. So both these cost margin should improve significantly.
4) Model 3 margins should improve even compared to Q4 because then Fremont was still building up. End of quarter rush also added multiple costs.
5) China cost is separately assessed.
6) one time restructuring costs from Q1 should reflect as savings in Q2.
7) ASP should remain as high as Q1.
8) the literal x-factors are Raven demand.
9) cash problem should be gone for at least some time, as the quarter should be cash neutral at worse and with new raise there is additional buffer.
10) model Y ramp up is the only big draw.
A few more points. It could be possible that in China Tesla starts taking reservation for SR models. Given the lead time to start build it sure does make sense. Note that in China ICE cars are too expensive get the license for.
So is the case in Norway and Canada where strong incentive will pull a perpetual demand.
So what am I missing?
I did all the research and I think demand is much more than people imagine. But the stock is behaving as it is all ending for Tesla. Even that stupid NYU prof is shitting on it. But when I think deep again and again I come to the same conclusions. (Can you see if there is hole in the below points).
1) Model 3 demand is very strong, including in the US. (Case already made in my previous few posts). I am guessing 91k deliveries and equal or more production.
2) Fremont doesn’t require additional capex to support model 3. Hence model 3 margins should be near peak expectation. (Q1 volumes were too low to reflect the true margin).
3) SG&A is basically fixed cost heavy (as Tesla doesn’t have margin based sales). R&D cost on FSD and chip is again fixed cost heavy. So both these cost margin should improve significantly.
4) Model 3 margins should improve even compared to Q4 because then Fremont was still building up. End of quarter rush also added multiple costs.
5) China cost is separately assessed.
6) one time restructuring costs from Q1 should reflect as savings in Q2.
7) ASP should remain as high as Q1.
8) the literal x-factors are Raven demand.
9) cash problem should be gone for at least some time, as the quarter should be cash neutral at worse and with new raise there is additional buffer.
10) model Y ramp up is the only big draw.
A few more points. It could be possible that in China Tesla starts taking reservation for SR models. Given the lead time to start build it sure does make sense. Note that in China ICE cars are too expensive get the license for.
So is the case in Norway and Canada where strong incentive will pull a perpetual demand.
So what am I missing?
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Carl Raymond
Active Member
Wrong question. The question is ‘What are short investors missing?’.
dqd88
Member
I think we are still paying for the Q1 miss. Institutional investors had to revise downward their estimates for every future quarter. They don't believe Elon's projections, and how can anyone blame them. I think it will take a quarter or two before institutional jumps back in heavy.
Let's face it, Wall St does not think he'll hit 360k deliveries this year.
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
They buried the lede: "Neither company plans to put money into this project, though."CNN Business: GM and Bechtel plan to build thousands of electric car charging stations across the US
First on CNN Business: GM and Bechtel plan to build thousands of electric car charging stations across the US - CNN
Well, well, GM. Decided you needed a charging network after all I see...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Are you familiar with the phrase "canary in the coal mine"?
Wooloomooloo
Member
Shares... (see what I did there).
They're not missing anything, anyone shorting in the last 6 months has very likely made a big profit - the narrative that they're all ignorant and don't understand Tesla doesn't matter (and likely isn't true). Most shorts aren't the dimwits you see on Twitter (they're trading not tweeting) they're just making money.
Besides that, you don't need to think Tesla is going to fail to think the market cap of $48bn was overvalued.
Having said all that, anyone shorting at sub $180 is probably missing a lot of things.
Wooloomooloo
Member
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