Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pras]

In terms of model 3 production numbers, here are my guesses.

High end
- Day 1-44 (1 week prior to May 22 email): 800 / day, 36.2k total
- Day 45-91: 900/ day, 42.3k total
Total 91 day high end est. 78.5k
Lower end estimate 72k

S+X 300/ day capacity for 60 days production
= 18k (15 low end)

So total Tesla can produce between 87k to 96k in the Q2.

Deliveries can reach 91k in either cases depending on shipment logistics.

 

[dc_h]

I hope that's the case, but unfortunately there is another possible explanation: Chinese sales could be much worse than expected at the moment, and so they might have concluded that they can bring in more cash from pre-orders than continued poor sales.
Yet another explanation is that Tesla may be hoping for orders from people who are waiting for full pricing information before ordering, i.e. a lot of people in China may be waiting to see how much the locally-produced SR+ is going to cost before deciding which version to order. Some of these people may end up purchasing higher trims or even S/X.

Or there could be some other very different reason - e.g. concerns about people ordering from the competition if Tesla doesn't open orders soon, or even the hope of generating a very large number of pre-orders to help to support the share price by destroying the narrative that Tesla's demand has collapsed.

I think they want orders in place before opening the new plant. I’m sure 50,000 or 100,000 early orders would be welcome, but I don’t think you can read anymore into the announcement.

 

[FS_FRA]

I think they want orders in place before opening the new plant. I’m sure 50,000 or 100,000 early orders would be welcome, but I don’t think you can read anymore into the announcement.

This!

Theres nothing like a full order book to optimise production planning, sourcing, etc.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I hope that's the case, but unfortunately there is another possible explanation: Chinese sales could be much worse than expected at the moment, and so they might have concluded that they can bring in more cash from pre-orders than continued poor sales.
Yet another explanation is that Tesla may be hoping for orders from people who are waiting for full pricing information before ordering, i.e. a lot of people in China may be waiting to see how much the locally-produced SR+ is going to cost before deciding which version to order. Some of these people may end up purchasing higher trims or even S/X.

Or there could be some other very different reason - e.g. concerns about people ordering from the competition if Tesla doesn't open orders soon, or even the hope of generating a very large number of pre-orders to help to support the share price by destroying the narrative that Tesla's demand has collapsed.

If you were in China right now why on earth would you order a Model 3 now? In a few weeks you can order one for significantly less money. Of course the Chinese numbers are low.

Dan

 

[Pras]

I think they want orders in place before opening the new plant. I’m sure 50,000 or 100,000 early orders would be welcome, but I don’t think you can read anymore into the announcement.

Agree. It is like an advertisement to promote before the launch.

But osborning effect can be real too. See S and X. The Chinese LR customers can make quick decision because the pricing gap may not be worth waiting for.

Also Q3 will likely refocus on RHD supply. So diverting some of the demand to accommodate new markets.

 

[jerry33]

Demand is not greater than supply for S or X or 3 LR versions. People should be more specific in their thinking when they use this trope.

While the leak of the Raven upgrade reduced S and X demand for pre-Raven cars. I don't see any indication that Raven cars have any demand issue.

 

[Stress]

yeah because paid muppets like you come out of the woodwork and misconstrue manipulate and misinform everyone and everything

? Which part was manipulation and misinformation? The debt? The cash burn?

 

[Electroman]

Tesla China is on fire!

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Keep up the hype! (link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/S_wwdgQZDQdozbuuJrOYIQ)
The last sentence "2019年5月31日 中国制造 Model 3 即将开启预订 期待相遇"
"Pre-order opens on 2019.05.31 for Model 3 manufactured in China. Look forward to meeting you."


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I get the feeling that the Chinese are on hold anyway not buying the expensive version from Fremont, and instead waiting for GF3 which will save them a lot of money. So opening up the reservations is a way of shoring the cash position

 

[SO16]

Is it though? Don't forget about the debt, the cash burn, the high probability of default priced by the CDS. If it was cheap shares would be getting snapped up right now. They're not. And it's not like Musk hasn't made his predictions about the future public.

Amazing how when things get a little dark around TSLA, certain people appear but then disappear when things are brighter. Just like roaches.

 

[Vaamo]

Is it though? Don't forget about the debt, the cash burn, the high probability of default priced by the CDS. If it was cheap shares would be getting snapped up right now. They're not. And it's not like Musk hasn't made his predictions about the future public.

1 like from JackieDonson. I see, must be "Stress" forcing you to join this community

 

[Stress]

Amazing how when things get a little dark around TSLA, certain people appear but then disappear when things are brighter. Just like roaches.

I'm literally just pointing out simple facts about the current situation!

I said Tesla has debt, Jesus you guys are sensitive.

 

[Todd Burch]

If you were in China right now why on earth would you order a Model 3 now? In a few weeks you can order one for significantly less money. Of course the Chinese numbers are low.

Dan

Only the lower trim cars will be built in Shanghai.

 

[Todd Burch]

I get the feeling that the Chinese are on hold anyway not buying the expensive version from Fremont, and instead waiting for GF3 which will save them a lot of money. So opening up the reservations is a way of shoring the cash position

Only the lower trims will be built in Shanghai per Tesla. The expensive versions will not be built there.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Wow on the interpretation skills of the written word.

They said something akin to, ‘We’ll be amputating that foot of yours, if you don’t get your blood sugar under control.’

And you read, ‘I need to cut my cola and chocolate intake by one percent. On Wednesdays.’

I think that's going a little OTT. What I outlined is pretty much the consensus view of the company, I think it's a decent inference. It's also a view no one is really arguing with.

Your analogy is off as well as being exaggerated - if you wanted to get that point across, a better one would have been:

"If you don't get your sugar intake down, there will be major challenges to your blood circulation" implying "we will likely have to amputate a limb" and me inferring "I need to temporarily switch to diet Pepsi".

 

[Fact Checking]

? Which part was manipulation and misinformation? The debt? The cash burn?

All of it.

JFYI, you are also possibly committing a crime/felony by going on an investor forum with the intent to bash the stock for financial gain.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Sigh. I do really look forward to Q2, Q3 results, and progress on autopilot. I also look forward to the inevitable flop of the audi e-tron and Porsche taycan when actual real customers (not paid shills) realize just how they compare to the S and 3. And I REALLY look forward to the wailing and gnashing by the short sellers who short the stock right now only to see it triple in value. Its inevitable.
Hold.

 

[Stress]

All of it.

JFYI, you are also possibly committing a crime/felony by going on an investor forum with the intent to bash the stock for financial gain.

Yeah it's a crime to point out a public company has debt. lol. Was it a felony when Musk talked about cash burn in his leaked email/

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Seriously, we need a limit that people have to be a member for a month before posting here. Would also cut down on the number of posts

 

[jerry33]

Yeah it's a crime to point out a public company has debt. lol. Was it a felony when Musk talked about cash burn in his leaked email/

Well, generally people don't join a forum and immediately start posting negative statements, unless they have an agenda. People typically join a forum to find information.

 

[SO16]

I'm literally just pointing out simple facts about the current situation!

I said Tesla has debt, Jesus you guys are sensitive.

We have seen this several times from “Care Bears” stating the blatantly obvious.