Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

The leak could indeed be bad for demand, but leaking a more 3 like interior could inspire some buying for anyone who likes the current dual screen layout. Tesla has always had a PC\iPhone like demand issue where you know the car will be better if you wait. This change could be offset by the better tax refund, so timing for Q3 is not bad.

Like me. I like the current interior just fine, don’t like the minimalist 3 interior so much. They are leaving cash on the table if they can’t deliver my raven by end of Q2.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Reasons to sell more cars, even when it has no apparent effect on the bottom line:

Great list. I would add that they may create a life long customer who buys higher margin cars in the future as an upgrade.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Q.E.D.

 

[mikevbf]

I think the Tesla's guess how much the M3 is going to cost in China is quickly going to become a guess how many Chinese reservations Tesla has.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Seriously? This guy is a fear mongering Drama Queen or he’s ‘acting’ to get attention for his video.

Of course the car sometimes gets confused, hesitates, makes the wrong choice, or gives up. Of course! Who in their right mind with a modicum of common sense and intelligence expected differently at this stage of development?

*We* don’t care about people who use the car/system in a way it’s not intended in the same way *we* don’t care if Mark S. gets E. Coli from dipping his toothbrush in the toilet.

Agreed - this is the proverbial "warning, may contain nuts" on the packet of nuts. Unfortunately that major CYA requirements will still be needed, because there is no mitigating idiocy or willful ignorance - and you have to wonder about the driving skills of such people anyway.

FSD can't come quickly enough to remove the burden of focusing on the ONE thing they're supposed to be doing while driving their car, which is driving their car.

 

[JRP3]

So Tesla has acquired an exciting dry battery electrode process by buying Maxwell Tech. So what is the next step? Clearly, they would want to set up some prototype production line but Tesla has no experience making battery cells. So license it to Panasonic? Make 18650 battery cells for the refreshed Model S with DBE? Making 21700 battery cells using DBE and then having to redesign the battery-pack? You can't switch the Model 3 battery cells to DBE because the demand for battery cells per week is so huge..but the refreshed Model S would have a far lower demand at the beginning. Or do you want the DBE battery cells for the Roadster only? I can see huge efficiency gains to get the Gigafactory making battery cells for the Model S - either 21700 or 18650.

I'd set up a small production test line making cells for the Semi in house test fleet. Good way to run the cells in the real world.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting info...

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data | CleanTechnica

It looks to me (and many others here) like a lot of Q1 was pulled into Q4, and now it is back to "normal"

 

[Wooloomooloo]

If the 400 is indeed true, I'm really anxious to know what the max range of the Y will be. Anything at or above 350 would be an incredible win. We are already planning to buy a Y early on, but 350 miles or more of range would make the purchase even sweeter. .

I thought the Y was already announced as having a 300 mile range? 350 miles or 400 miles on the Y or 3 would be awesome, but I haven't seen or heard anything to indicate that's going to happen in the near term.

 

[azaz]

US demand is strong again

and my check of the inventory by me every couple of days would back this 100%

 

[Ggusev]

a lot of Q1 was pulled into Q4

this is very plausible . end of q4 was the mad rush after expiring tax credit

 

[Nocturnal]

Like me. I like the current interior just fine, don’t like the minimalist 3 interior so much. They are leaving cash on the table if they can’t deliver my raven by end of Q2.

My gut says the new S interior will be somewhere in between the 3 and current. Maybe sleeker that the current version but a little more plush/optioned out than the 3.

Interesting info...

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data | CleanTechnica

It looks to me (and many others here) like a lot of Q1 was pulled into Q4, and now it is back to "normal"

The fact that they were able to lower prices to offset the tax credit drop should have killed the demand cliff thesis.

Like me. I like the current interior just fine, don’t like the minimalist 3 interior so much. They are leaving cash on the table if they can’t deliver my raven by end of Q2.

My gut says the new S interior will be somewhere in between the 3 and current. Maybe sleeker that the current version but a little more plush/optioned out than the 3.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

FWIW, my 2014 S85 was extremely loud when the AC was working. my 2017 S90D was virtually silent unless working full blast, even then considerably quieter than the S85 ever was. same for my 2018 3.

When I took my S85 in to have the A/C checked (thinking surely something was wrong since it was SO loud), the 2018 X P100DL loaner they gave me was nearly as loud as my S. I knew then that there was probably nothing wrong with my S. And that's what they said - it was normal.

I'm not sure how often most people around the country cool a car in 101 to 103 degree heat, with humidity so high the "feels like" temp reaches 108 to 115, but the A/C literally is as loud as a diesel engine. It's even difficult for our ICEVs to cool the cars in that heat (and yes, we plan to dispose of every ICEV in time - can't wait).

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Interesting info...

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data | CleanTechnica

It looks to me (and many others here) like a lot of Q1 was pulled into Q4, and now it is back to "normal"

Well that's also in line with seasonal buying trends (the US chart), which many pointed out during Q1 as well - it's just magnified because of the 2018 ramp. The Q2 bounce should be nice. If that trend continues, there should be a Q4'18/Q4'19 uptick as well.

 

[Huskyf]

Interesting info...

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data | CleanTechnica

It looks to me (and many others here) like a lot of Q1 was pulled into Q4, and now it is back to "normal"

Please send this to all medias , blogs, forums like cnn, cnbc, others
The shorts make the same when they find bad news.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Something I'd like to follow up on from the CNBC article: does anyone know about S/X shifts when they were last at 2k/week? The CNBC article says they are now on weekday shifts only, not weekend or night shifts. However, I remember that they already reduced from 3 to 2 shifts with efficiency improvements a long time ago while still running at 2k/week, so would they would both be considered day shifts? Essentially, I am wondering if "day shifts only" could still mean 2 shifts per day? In that case, the lack of night shifts is of no significance.

However, no weekend shifts would mean no more than around 1400-1500/week at the moment if each day is roughly equal and they previously needed weekend shifts to hit 2k/week. I suppose that's not too bad, as they did say that Raven production wouldn't finish ramping until Q3. Also, it may be a bit higher if they have been able to improve efficiency.
On the other hand, I had hoped that they would ramp to 2k/week again by early in Q3, but maybe they will be waiting for the September refresh.

Tesla said in early 2018 they improved S/X line efficiency and could produce 25k/quarter with two shifts and very minimal OT (sometimes a component shortage or other problem cuts production and you run a Saturday or two to catch up). You'd typically call those day and evening shift, or maybe morning/evening shift if the first one starts early enough. Night shift usually means overnight, aka graveyard.

GF1 operates continuously, with 12 hour shifts. There are 4 crews, two work Sun/Mon/Tue plus alternate Saturdays and two work Wed/Thu/Fri with alternate Saturdays. I've heard the Model 3 lines run the same way, but that's very unusual for auto assembly due to line maintenance requirements.

Getting back to S/X, they never officially said they dropped to one shift but it was obvious when they said they "reduced hours" in early January. Government paperwork showed they laid off production workers in Fremont and press reports said some S/X people were re-assigned to Model 3 while others were let go. Single shift was confirmed by 14k S/X production in Q1 and seems to still be the case. They are clearing out pre-Raven inventory, though, so Q2 deliveries should exceed production. I'd guess 12-14k production and 18-20k deliveries.

 

[Nocturnal]

Please send this to all medias , blogs, forums like cnn, cnbc, others
The shorts make the same when they find bad news.

Or we can let the shorts have more rope.

 

[neroden]

Yea, I was referring to the CCA generation rates from renewables increasing over time. They seem to want to get closer and eventually match the rates. So, if PG&E raises their rates, the CCAs will continue doing so as well. PG&E is public, and have issues like you said. No reason for them to lower rates, and thus no reason for the CCAs to do as well.
Unfortunately, regardless of how many incidents they have and how big those associated liabilities are, they’ve become one of those giant entities that are “too big to fail.”



That would support my point of increasing demand leading to increase in price. But, again, my point was about the generation. You’re referring to the distribution (I think). Our charges are broken down into generation and distribution.

I was too terse. Let us put it this way. If your electric price is over 14 cents per kWh, put up your own solar panels and save money. If it is over 30 cents, put up Power walls too and go off the grid. There is a hard cap on electricity prices if you have your own sunlight and access to capital. For those who have to pay higher interest rates, these numbers are higher of course. But both numbers drop every single year.

If you do not have a roof or land with sunlight you may be at the mercy of the utility company or landlord, but most of the country does. Competitive pressure... People can move to places with cheaper electricity...will force prices down in the remaining high rise areas, though SF and NYC may take unusually long.

 

[Doggydogworld]

So Tesla has acquired an exciting dry battery electrode process by buying Maxwell Tech. So what is the next step? Clearly, they would want to set up some prototype production line but Tesla has no experience making battery cells. So license it to Panasonic? Make 18650 battery cells for the refreshed Model S with DBE? Making 21700 battery cells using DBE and then having to redesign the battery-pack? You can't switch the Model 3 battery cells to DBE because the demand for battery cells per week is so huge..but the refreshed Model S would have a far lower demand at the beginning. Or do you want the DBE battery cells for the Roadster only? I can see huge efficiency gains to get the Gigafactory making battery cells for the Model S - either 21700 or 18650.

Maxwell said they were building a pilot line last year to prove the DBE process works at scale. They never said it was running, so presumably they ran into cash/tech problems. First order of business is to get that line running in its current location. It probably makes pouch cells, so maybe Tesla makes some one-off Powerpacks to test/use at Superchargers or something.

Second step is to hook a single cell-winding machine up to the pilot line and make some 2170s. Tesla can use these in customer Powerpacks. Finally, once DBE is proven and Panasonic has enough surplus capacity, retrofit a single line at GF1 to make DBE 2170s to use in storage products and eventually vehicles.

 

[neroden]

FWIW, my 2014 S85 was extremely loud when the AC was working. my 2017 S90D was virtually silent unless working full blast, even then considerably quieter than the S85 ever was. same for my 2018 3.

There was an retrofit... The AC was crazy loud on early Model S until a sound dampening blanket was retrofitted. Since then it has been normal AC loudness. Did you get the retrofit on your 2014?

 

[Bobbyducati]

There was an retrofit... The AC was crazy loud on early Model S until a sound dampening blanket was retrofitted. Since then it has been normal AC loudness. Did you get the retrofit on your 2014?

i did not, but that car is long gone at this point