Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anon]

One of my biggest near-term concerns now is the Chinese rare Earth issue - I have seen numerous articles reporting that the language in the Chinese press is threatening to cut off supply to the US as a next step in the trade war. This could be very bad for Tesla, especially as they have just switched to permanent magnet motors not only in the 3, but now also the front drive units of the S and X.

 

[Snerruc]

Someone just won a model 3 on Price Is Right!!!

 

[JRP3]

Second step is to hook a single cell-winding machine up to the pilot line and make some 2170s. Tesla can use these in customer Powerpacks. Finally, once DBE is proven and Panasonic has enough surplus capacity, retrofit a single line at GF1 to make DBE 2170s to use in storage products and eventually vehicle

The best return on the technology would be in vehicles, that's why I'd test in Semi's first.

 

[neroden]

Maxwell said they were building a pilot line last year to prove the DBE process works at scale. They never said it was running, so presumably they ran into cash/tech problems. First order of business is to get that line running in its current location. It probably makes pouch cells, so maybe Tesla makes some one-off Powerpacks to test/use at Superchargers or something.

Second step is to hook a single cell-winding machine up to the pilot line and make some 2170s. Tesla can use these in customer Powerpacks. Finally, once DBE is proven and Panasonic has enough surplus capacity, retrofit a single line at GF1 to make DBE 2170s to use in storage products and eventually vehicles.

I think Tesla will alter the pilot line to make 2170s before even finishing it. Assuming it is not running yet. No point in making pouches. I do not believe they will go in Power packs. First use will be the Semis. Semis for internal use can afford prototype technology. Any problems can be kept under wraps. When they are proven and debugged in the Semis, then aI think they deploy in Model S and X.

 

[Thumper]

What ever became of the mothballed rare earth supplies in California?

 

[Singuy]

What’s the rationale for disclosing the model 3 made in China price this early? Seems like an easy way to Osborne the current product

My thought is this because I thought it's stupid too.

Tesla has zero plans in bringing over SR+ to China because it's not worth the logistics due to this being a lower margin car. And there's also no way to buy a more powerful or longer range car anyway in China. So might as well get the preorders in. I'm not sure how much cannibalism of the LR AWD there will be announcing the price since these are two vastly different car in range, power and "quality". And people are already expecting the SR+ China version is cheaper so unless Tesla is giving it out for free, people already has a set expectation.

 

[Beaver]

Someone just won a model 3 on Price Is Right!!!

Somewhat OT but this week is car week on Price is Right. I watched yesterday and was hoping they would have a Tesla. Very cool that they had one today. They should have an X in the showcase showdown.

 

[ebyard]

One of my biggest near-term concerns now is the Chinese rare Earth issue

Wouldn't be a good start for the Tesla-China relationship with GF3. My guess is the Chinese govt will make some exceptions, and you can bet the Tesla China team are already talking to the necessary people in the Communist party.

Either way, this trade war is going to get ugly and Trump will lose.

 

[mongo]

I think Tesla will alter the pilot line to make 2170s before even finishing it. Assuming it is not running yet. No point in making pouches. I do not believe they will go in Power packs. First use will be the Semis. Semis for internal use can afford prototype technology. Any problems can be kept under wraps. When they are proven and debugged in the Semis, then aI think they deploy in Model S and X.

Why not GF1 Powerpacks? Fixed location, easy monitoring, can cycle at will. Could even use NCA instead of NMC.
Any semi pack issues that lead to pulling over will be public in no time...

 

[Chocochip]

Someone just won a model 3 on Price Is Right!!!

Is that the Chinese version of the game? Gotta be specific these days...

 

[sparcs]

What ever became of the mothballed rare earth supplies in California?

they ship ore to china for refining. China's Rare Earth Metals Aren't the Trade War Weapon Beijing Makes Them Out to Be

They say they will be refining next year in the USA, but i'll believe it when I see it. Costs to comply with all the environmental rules are probably pretty high. Chinese refiners can get away with polluting.

 

[Todd Burch]

To illustrate how effective FUD is, look how many people on this forum are now talking about the supposed upcoming S and X interior refresh .

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I think Tesla will alter the pilot line to make 2170s before even finishing it. Assuming it is not running yet. No point in making pouches. I do not believe they will go in Power packs. First use will be the Semis. Semis for internal use can afford prototype technology. Any problems can be kept under wraps. When they are proven and debugged in the Semis, then aI think they deploy in Model S and X.

2170’s in S and X?

 

[JRP3]

Why not GF1 Powerpacks? Fixed location, easy monitoring, can cycle at will. Could even use NCA instead of NMC.
Any semi pack issues that lead to pulling over will be public in no time...

Cells will be well tested before they are put into semi's or power packs. I doubt the DBE technology is going to produce some catastrophic failure. Test semis could run dual packs at first with ability to switch between the two for comparison and redundancy.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

To illustrate how effective FUD is, look how many people on this forum are now talking about the supposed upcoming S and X interior refresh .

Well who wants to talk about $186!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My gut says the new S interior will be somewhere in between the 3 and current. Maybe sleeker that the current version but a little more plush/optioned out than the 3.

The fact that they were able to lower prices to offset the tax credit drop should have killed the demand cliff thesis.


My gut says the new S interior will be somewhere in between the 3 and current. Maybe sleeker that the current version but a little more plush/optioned out than the 3.

What would you consider "plush or optioned out"?

Dan

 

[anthonyj]

Someone just won a model 3 on Price Is Right!!!

With Tesla changing their prices every week, I doubt even Elon could guess the price of the car

 

[Singuy]

Somewhat OT but this week is car week on Price is Right. I watched yesterday and was hoping they would have a Tesla. Very cool that they had one today. They should have an X in the showcase showdown.

What? Isn't that advertising? Not complaining. I think this is a good thing. The word needs to get out that a model 3 doesn't cost 80k. Most of the public asks me how much my car is and guessed 70-80k.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Somewhat OT but this week is car week on Price is Right. I watched yesterday and was hoping they would have a Tesla. Very cool that they had one today. They should have an X in the showcase showdown.

The majority of winners do claim the prizes because of the 50% gift tax. Which I read is due when you pick up the prizes. I would take the car then flip it.

 

[sundaymorning]

@rdalcanto
If Tesla is opening pre-orders for new Model 3 made in China on Friday - Electrek, then how many of China’s >1.4B people will put deposits down? Put another way, if 9% of China can afford one without the import taxes, maybe more with all of their incentives to go electric, how many of that 140M will buy one?China’s middle class is exploding? Even if only 1% of China can afford one, that’s still almost 15million to draw from. It would be interesting to run the numbers just on provinces that have strong incentives and households that make over 50k? dollars. It would also be interesting (and not really that surprising when you look at the population) at the shareholders meeting they already received 100k?200k?500k?

The exciting thing here is to get China to start ordering standard plus with some options. By the time those orders are in Tesla Shanghai will be setting up equipment in June/July to prepare production. During the 1st Q CC Elon alluded to 1,000-2,000 per week production by end of year in Shanghai.