Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

China prices may be too low.
Status seeking Godless commies will want to show
off on the streets with their hot rod American iron

Performance performance performance.
*
Neroden, you are a most amazing fellow.
Pleasure to read you.

1 Tariffs. Before the Godless Communist Wilson,
The United States of America ran on tariffs
But you knew that.

2 Completely agree on Autonomy day.
Auto snooze
Conspicuously missing was a video, the action.
I sat through it waiting anxiously for the vids.
Nope. Then it just Ended.

Skuttled by the probably not Godless but Communist Ska?
*
Not that TSLA would fake a FSD vid or anything.
Boosh league trick.

Seriously though a vid was so conspicuously missing
something went astray.

They published a video a few hours after the live event.

 

[RobStark]

Pretty sure that is in fact for Type 2 CCS (mostly Europe, some other places). But it's existence does make a Type 1 CCS for North America happening eventually at least plausible. Many stated over and over that it couldn't be done due to rules set for by the CCS organization, but that doesn't seem to be the case. I'm hopeful we see one eventually, though perceptually a CHAdeMO adapter is more important to have now than a CCS adapter for North America I expect that will change over time.

Rules change.

Tesla joined CharIN, the organizing body for CCS, about 3 years ago .

Tesla Joins Industry Group Responsible for CCS Charging Standards

Maybe CHAdeMO is more important for Canada, in CA I would rather have CCS.

 

[neroden]

I would love a short squeeze as much as the next bull. A major short squeeze...similiar to 2013/14 ones is not going to happen.

At this point, I think it will, but not any time *soon*. It'll happen when you least expect it.

The volatility of this stock IF played right can make both bulls and bears a lot of money IF you are lucky enough to play with the big boys correctly. I can't at this point. Lucked out in 2013/14 but not since then with ST options expecting a squeeze.

The way for long is just stay in stock with a 5+ year time horizon. Buy the dips if you want to add but otherwise don't get involved in the ST noise.

Bottom line: Playing for a squeeze will more likely leave you 'frustrated'.

Yeah.

 

[qunqun]

Chinese forums are littered with people who would not buy, one way or another.

I don't think so, people are showing their tesla's they are the real owners and buyers, also
i don't think people would happy if local made is more expensive than American made.

 

[sparcs]

People expecting under 300k most people there expecting 283k, because they know elon have side to build china factory is 50% cheaper and labor there is also cheaper, many people already pissed off by the constantly price changes, so I don't think the later price drop would be a good idea.

Post the prices of the top three equivalent luxury cars in China. They are probably a BMW/Mercedes/Audi.

Then we can start a real discussion on Chinese pricing...

 

[EVNow]

Well, I’m sure they didn’t pluck this price from the air. Market research would have told them what the demand curve looked like and presumably this is the sweet spot to maximise profit.

I would have preferred a lower price and a bigger order backlog, just to shut up the “no demand” incessant drone.

As a shareholder I suppose I should be pleased that the market will bear this price. Alas, no short squeeze trigger today. Back to waiting patiently mode.

Actually if the market were rational, they should like this price. This means the ASP and margin will be maintained / improved. With AP being not included, it gives the option for Tesla to include it when they have sales.

Tesla still has the option to sell SR at a lower price if they produce more than they can sell.

But, if the market were rational, SP wouldn't be 50% off ATH because of one (anticipated) bad quarter.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Seems Tesla knows what it’s doing.

Hopefully yes.
Don't think any SRP has been delivered in China though.

 

[neroden]

1 Tariffs. Before the Godless Communist Wilson,
The United States of America ran on tariffs
But you knew that.

The essential problem with Trump's tariffs is not that they are tariffs, but that they are incredibly stupid, poorly thought out, almost *randomized* tariffs. The uncertainty and unpredictability hurts business, and the tariffs -- whenever they hit your business's supply chain -- directly cut into business profits. (Almost all of the tariffs being put in place by Trump will primarily come out of US business profits, due to the really dumb way he's failed to think about targeting them. It is possible for particular targeted tariffs to effectively hit foreign companies, but Trump's don't. Some hit consumers, but most hit business profits. Hence the stock market crashing.)

I cannot imagine any businessman wanting to donate to the Republican Party at this point, unless he gets direct kickbacks. Trump's randomized tariffs have done monumental damage to the business climate.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

you think people would happy if local made is more expensive than American made.

Is it more expensive?

It's cheaper, just not much cheaper.

 

[EVNow]

People expecting under 300k most people there expecting 283k, because they know elon have side to build china factory is 50% cheaper and labor there is also cheaper, many people already pissed off by the constantly price changes, so I don't think the later price drop would be a good idea.

Why would Model 3 be much cheaper than a BMW 3 series - also locally made ? I think they can still sell SR for 300k or less.

BTW, Tesla can't sell cheaper just because some people want it to.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

China built Model 3 SR+ may not be super cheap but it should be eligible for subsidies/incentives, right? How much will that reduce the effective cost / increase the margin (I remember a mention of both manufacturer and customer incentives ?) ?

They could be making more margin on these Chinese built SR+ than the Fremont ones, even at the lower price, and as long as there's enough demand for them ... being cheaper than the locally built BMW 320 I don't know why anyone there is disappointed?

Subsidy is a wild card right now.

It's up to the government, but hopefully yes.
I'm asking Tesla sales rep right now, but they seem super busy.

Model 3 order page also takes a long time to load.

 

[Fred42]

I'm pretty sure this is illegal. At some point Congress may clarify the tariff law to make it clear that Trump does not have the power to issue arbitrary tariffs. He's supposed to only be able to issue tariffs for specific purposes, and "threatening an ally over immigration from third countries" isn't one of them. This might even get enough votes to override Trump's veto. You can bet every single business owner is giving every Republican Congressman an earful about the business-killing tariffs.

Enough Republican Congressmen will support their leader that a veto won't be overridden, even if they're unhappy, and even though this might help nudge the economy toward a recession.

 

[peopleweb]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter


Model 3 pricing in China is 328,000

No standard Autopilot included though.

Beyond the psychological expectations of Chinese users。

 

[Fred42]

The essential problem with Trump's tariffs is not that they are tariffs, but that they are incredibly stupid, poorly thought out, almost *randomized* tariffs. The uncertainty and unpredictability hurts business, and the tariffs -- whenever they hit your business's supply chain -- directly cut into business profits. (Almost all of the tariffs being put in place by Trump will primarily come out of US business profits, due to the really dumb way he's failed to think about targeting them. It is possible for particular targeted tariffs to effectively hit foreign companies, but Trump's don't. Some hit consumers, but most hit business profits. Hence the stock market crashing.)

I cannot imagine any businessman wanting to donate to the Republican Party at this point, unless he gets direct kickbacks. Trump's randomized tariffs have done monumental damage to the business climate.

You're forgetting God's gifts to the Republican Party: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, etc.

 

[Singuy]

Post the prices of the top three equivalent luxury cars in China. They are probably a BMW/Mercedes/Audi.

Then we can start a real discussion on Chinese pricing...

Add the Nio into that discussion too.

 

[InDaClub]

I visit this site about once a year now. Used to post daily for a couple years. I simply cannot believe the bullishness that I still see on here. JB Straubel was dumping like a madman under $190.00. I guarantee the stock is in the mid 170s tomorrow and, unfortunately, is going broke. If lucky, shares will be bought out around $50.00. Don't keep listening to those who bought thousands of shares in the 50s 10 years ago. Think for yourself. Nothing, and I mean nothing, says one should buy this stock. Elon is a proven liar and a dangerous man. I have never shorted a single share. Blame Elon Musk for everything. It's all on him. I truly wish you all the best and hope some use their head and not their heart.

You sound desperate. That's my cue to buy more tomorrow. Check back with us in about 10 years next time you visit. Thanks!

 

[Carl Raymond]

I would love a short squeeze as much as the next bull. A major short squeeze...similiar to 2013/14 ones is not going to happen. The volatility of this stock IF played right can make both bulls and bears a lot of money IF you are lucky enough to play with the big boys correctly. I can't at this point. Lucked out in 2013/14 but not since then with ST options expecting a squeeze.

The way for longs to make money is to just stay in stock with a 5+ year time horizon. Buy the dips if you want to add but otherwise don't get involved in the ST noise.

Bottom line: Playing for a squeeze will more likely leave you 'frustrated'.

Oh I’m long. Not selling a share till at least 10x.

But the short interest is high and the reasons for low price confidence are largely fictitious. It’s totally reminiscent of the Q3 report 6 months ago, which definitely triggered a squeeze assisted climb. I hate the shorts, anyone really who aims to profit by delaying progress towards zero emissions. I want them burned.

I hate the FUDsters. I want them buried in news about the EV disruption.

Basically the squeeze I’m looking for is a vice on the testicles of those fighting for the pollution economy.

 

[Icer]

They published a video a few hours after the live event.

of people driving, after the event, right? With no live coverage.

Trump's tariffs i

Scene from Mexican president's office:
Sir, Chairman of VW on Line one...

oh and the CEO of Ford i still holding on line two...

 

[neroden]

You're forgetting God's gifts to the Republican Party: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, etc.

Both are extremely popular among independents. And Republican registration numbers drop in favor of indepedents every year.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

377,000 plus (your) VAT is 426,010 total. (or is the 377K including VAT?)

355,800 (SRP plus Autopilot) which rumor is saying includes VAT is 70,210 in savings.
Lets call it 60K in saving to be sure VAT on Autopilot is included.

SO $9,000US in savings. That's quite a bit...
Altho I thought $3K in saving was nice too since that's around 7% off.

BUT I guess the bears will be along soon to tell us how it actually costs more some how. And since there is 7% in savings there is no way the Chinese version can be at profit because it's SO expensive to manufacture products in China.

All price in China include VAT, so 377,000 is VAT included.

377,000 - 328,000 - 27800 (Autopilot) = 21200, about $3000, not much cheaper.

As I mentioned before, this decision is likely to avoid further Osborning imported Model 3